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Persistent Midweek Soaking Fractures Into a Divided Weekend
What You Need to Know
Widespread rain dominates through Wednesday, followed by a sharp weekend divide where Western Kentucky stays wet while Northern and Eastern Kentucky enjoy dry, pleasant sunshine.
We are continuing to track the persistently damp pattern outlined in our previous updates, with widespread waves of moderate rain locking in across the Commonwealth for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will feel noticeably muggy and heavy outside, with temperatures hovering in the 70s despite the persistent cloud cover.
By Thursday, the promised light at the end of the tunnel briefly materializes for most of the state. Morning showers will gradually taper off, allowing the afternoon to warm beautifully into the 80s as skies finally begin to brighten from west to east.
However, as cautioned earlier, the late-week forecast sets up a stark geographic divide. A stalled moisture boundary will keep clouds and light rain anchored over Western and Southern Kentucky from Friday through Saturday, while Northern and Eastern Kentucky cash in on brilliant sunshine and pleasant springtime conditions.
Key Dates
Primary Impacts
7 Day Outlook
Tropical Moisture Brings Rain West; Dry and Humid North
A humid, tropical environment will dominate Kentucky as a weak shortwave trough traverses the region. Expect waves of rain showers across Western and Southern Kentucky, while Northern Kentucky and the Louisville Metro likely remain dry under a mid-level dry slot.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for temperature and precipitation type (rain only). Moderate confidence remains regarding the northern boundary of the rain shield and localized totals in the western counties.
View Full Forecast BreakdownRegional Summer Downpours Amidst Persistent Humid Heat
Kentucky faces a split weather pattern this Monday. While most of Northern and Central Kentucky will enjoy a mostly sunny and dry day, moisture-rich air will trigger scattered showers in the west and concentrated heavy rainfall across the Southeast Coalfields.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in temperatures and humidity levels; however, significant model disagreement regarding the magnitude of rainfall in the Southeast and the overall coverage of afternoon showers reduces the score.
View Full Forecast BreakdownWidespread Summer Rain and High Humidity for Tuesday
A summer shortwave trough will traverse the Commonwealth on Tuesday, bringing widespread cloud cover, high humidity, and multiple rounds of rain, particularly for Central and Eastern Kentucky.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for widespread rain in the eastern half of the state. Lower confidence remains for the western regions where the NAM remains dry, and for the exact timing of individual rain bands.
View Full Forecast BreakdownMorning Showers Clear for a Warm, Bright Afternoon
A fast-moving shortwave trough will bring a period of rain showers to the Commonwealth late tonight through tomorrow morning. Skies will clear rapidly from west to east by the afternoon as the system exits into the Appalachians.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the lack of severe weather and thermal profiles; moderate confidence in the western extent of measurable rainfall and exact clearing times in the east.
View Full Forecast BreakdownA Tranquil and Seasonably Warm Summer Day for Kentucky
High pressure will dominate the weather across the Commonwealth on Thursday, ensuring dry conditions for the vast majority of the state. While most regions will enjoy abundant sunshine, a weak disturbance passing to our south may introduce some mid-level cloudiness and a few stray sprinkles along the Tennessee border, particularly in the afternoon.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high regarding the seasonable temperatures and overall lack of significant weather. However, there is moderate uncertainty regarding the northward extent of cloud cover associated with the weak southern disturbance.
View Full Forecast BreakdownDamp and Cloudy Friday: Light Rain West, Drier East
A weak mid-level disturbance will traverse Kentucky on Friday, bringing widespread cloud cover and areas of light, steady rain. While Western and Central Kentucky will experience high rain chances, the precipitation will remain light and stratiform. Northern and Northeastern regions will likely remain dry but overcast.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for widespread cloud cover and seasonally cool temperatures. However, the low-intensity nature of the rain and high dewpoint depressions in the east introduce some uncertainty regarding exact measurable rainfall placement.
View Full Forecast BreakdownWestern Rain Gradient vs Eastern Sun for Saturday
A decaying mid-level disturbance will bring steady stratiform rain to Western Kentucky, while a strong ridge over the Appalachians keeps Central and Eastern Kentucky primarily dry with seasonable temperatures.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the west-to-east clearing trend, but the Day 6 lead time and potential for the moisture plume to shift 50 miles east or west lowers the overall score.
View Full Forecast Breakdown