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Persistent Midweek Soaking Fractures Into a Divided Weekend
What You Need to Know
Widespread rain dominates through Wednesday, followed by a sharp weekend divide where Western Kentucky stays wet while Northern and Eastern Kentucky enjoy dry, pleasant sunshine.
We are continuing to track the persistently damp pattern outlined in our previous updates, with widespread waves of moderate rain locking in across the Commonwealth for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will feel noticeably muggy and heavy outside, with temperatures hovering in the 70s despite the persistent cloud cover.
By Thursday, the promised light at the end of the tunnel briefly materializes for most of the state. Morning showers will gradually taper off, allowing the afternoon to warm beautifully into the 80s as skies finally begin to brighten from west to east.
However, as cautioned earlier, the late-week forecast sets up a stark geographic divide. A stalled moisture boundary will keep clouds and light rain anchored over Western and Southern Kentucky from Friday through Saturday, while Northern and Eastern Kentucky cash in on brilliant sunshine and pleasant springtime conditions.
Key Dates
Primary Impacts
7 Day Outlook
Dominant High Pressure with a Damp Western Exception
A robust high-pressure system centered over the Ohio Valley will provide tranquil and warm weather for the majority of Kentucky. However, a weak upper-level disturbance will bring increased cloud cover and a slight risk of morning drizzle to the far western Purchase and Barren River areas before high pressure suppresses the moisture later in the day.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for a dry day across 80% of the state. The primary uncertainty lies in the intensity of the cloud cover and trace drizzle risk in the far western counties due to the weak vorticity max.
View Full Forecast BreakdownEarly Summer Warmth with Increasing Evening Clouds
A stable and warm early June airmass will dominate Kentucky, with temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 80s statewide. While most of the Commonwealth remains dry under a building ridge, a weak mid-level disturbance will bring increased cloud cover and a slight chance for light rain to the far western Purchase region by evening.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for the temperature forecast and the dry conditions for 90% of the state. Confidence is lower regarding the exact northern and eastern extent of light rain showers in the Purchase region during the evening hours.
View Full Forecast BreakdownSunny Skies for Most; Light Showers Linger in the West
A split weather pattern will define Kentucky this Saturday. High pressure over the Appalachians will provide sunny and warm conditions for Central and Eastern Kentucky, while a weak moisture plume brings light, intermittent rain to the Purchase and Pennyrile regions.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in temperatures and dry conditions for the eastern half of the state, but moderate uncertainty remains regarding the exact eastern extent of the light rain plume in Western Kentucky.
View Full Forecast BreakdownWidespread Rain and Humid Conditions Arrive Sunday
A moisture-laden system will track across Kentucky on Sunday, bringing widespread stratiform rain to the entire state. Rainfall will be heaviest in the west, with amounts gradually tapering off toward the east. While it will be a soggy day, the lack of instability will prevent severe weather, leaving most regions with a steady, soaking rain and overcast skies.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for a widespread rain event and warm temperatures; however, timing differences between the GFS and Euro regarding when rain reaches the Eastern Kentucky coalfields reduce overall certainty.
View Full Forecast BreakdownSoggy and Humid Monday with Widespread Rain Showers
A moist and unsettled airmass will prevail across Kentucky on Monday, bringing widespread cloud cover and rounds of light to moderate rain. While no severe weather is expected, persistent dampness will impact the entire state, with the highest rainfall totals concentrated in the west.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on precipitation occurrence and type (rain); moderate disagreement on exact timing of peak intensity and the eastward extent of heavier liquid totals.
View Full Forecast BreakdownWidespread Morning Rain Tapers to Cloudy Skies Late
A damp start to Tuesday is expected across Kentucky as a broad area of light to moderate rain moves through. Precipitation will be most consistent during the morning hours, making for a wet commute for much of the state. Rain will gradually taper to drizzle and then end from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours as clouds remain persistent. No severe weather or thunderstorms are expected.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high regarding the occurrence of rain but moderate on the exact timing of the western clearing edge. The five-day lead time introduces standard timing uncertainties.
View Full Forecast BreakdownSoggy and Humid: Widespread Light Rain for Kentucky
A slow-moving moisture plume will transit the state on Wednesday, bringing high humidity and persistent light to moderate rain. While not a severe weather producer, the overcast skies and damp conditions will define the day for most of the Commonwealth.
Regions
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high regarding the presence of rain and high humidity, but lowered by the 6-day lead time and uncertainty regarding the eastern extent of meaningful accumulation due to dry air aloft.
View Full Forecast Breakdown