Sunday, September 6
Morning Sprinkles Give Way to Late-Season Heat Surge
A weak, moisture-starved weather system will cross the state overnight, bringing light rain or drizzle. Skies will clear rapidly Sunday morning as a powerful thermal ridge builds from the southwest, triggering a significant jump in temperatures, with the western half of Kentucky approaching or exceeding 90 degrees.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for a dry afternoon, but significant model disagreement regarding the magnitude of the heat surge and the efficiency of overnight precipitation reduces the overall score.
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Purchase Area
Expect a stray shower before dawn, followed by a very hot and sunny afternoon. Temperatures will soar into the upper 90s, making it one of the hottest days of the year.
Northwest Pennyrile
A few morning sprinkles are possible, but skies will clear quickly. Highs will reach the low 90s under full sun.
Southwest Pennyrile
Aside from a few early clouds, it will be a dry and hot day with temperatures approaching 92 degrees.
Barren River
A warm and breezy afternoon is on tap with plenty of sunshine and highs in the low 90s.
Louisville Metro
Light overnight rain will clear out by the morning commute, leading to a sunny afternoon with highs near 89.
Lincoln Trail
Early morning showers will move east, leaving the afternoon sunny and warm with highs in the upper 80s.
Lake Cumberland
A few light morning sprinkles will quickly give way to a beautiful and warm afternoon with highs in the upper 80s.
Northern Kentucky
Light rain overnight will move out early. The afternoon will be warm and sunny with highs in the mid-80s.
Inner Bluegrass
A damp start to the day will improve rapidly by noon. The afternoon will be breezy and warm with highs near 85.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect light morning rain. Skies will clear for a sunny and warm evening with highs in the mid-80s.
Northeast Kentucky
Clouds and light drizzle will linger through mid-morning. The afternoon will be pleasant with highs in the low 80s.
Southeast Kentucky
Accumulations around 0.15 inches are expected as light rain showers persist through the morning before clearing.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the GFS thermal ridge verifies at full strength, Western Kentucky could see record-breaking heat with temperatures reaching 101°F, while overnight showers provide a more widespread 0.10" of rain.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the Euro's more conservative thermal profile wins out, temperatures will be held in the mid-80s to low 90s, and the morning moisture will manifest only as trace sprinkles or virga.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Southeast Rainfall Discrepancy
GFS predicts a localized 0.60" of rain in the Southeast Coalfields due to orographic enhancement, while the Euro predicts a mere 0.03".
Why EURO Wins
The synoptic setup lacks the deep moisture and forcing necessary for over half an inch of rain. The GFS 'bullseye' effect is likely over-forecasting the terrain lift.
The Great September Heat Spike
The GFS is aggressively advecting a +24C 850mb airmass into the region, suggesting surface temps near 101°F. The Euro is significantly cooler, peaking at 92°F in the west.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS typically handles deep mixing and late-season thermal ridges better than the Euro, though the surface temperature may be slightly overdone. I am leaning toward the GFS thermal strength but tempering the surface output.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.