Forecast For

Tuesday, September 8

Updated Sep 2, 7:11 PM EDT

Confidence

60%

Summary Regions Outcomes Battles Analysis Almanac Charts

Confidence

60%

Warm Tuesday with Nuisance Drizzle for Southern Kentucky

A split pattern will define Tuesday across the Commonwealth. Northern and western regions will remain dry but humid under varying cloud cover, while a shallow moisture plume will bring persistent light drizzle and mist to southern and eastern Kentucky. No severe weather or significant rainfall is expected.

Why is this happening?

Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup

Confidence Assessment

Confidence is high regarding the thermal profile and lack of severe weather. However, the 6-day lead time and the sensitivity of drizzle to boundary-layer moisture depth introduce moderate uncertainty in exact timing and coverage.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield

Very Warm and Dry

Cloudy

92°/ 70°

Expect a warm and humid day with a mix of sun and clouds. No rain is forecast for the area, and temperatures will climb into the low 90s.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind4 mph

Wind Chill70°

The "Why"

Subsidence in the wake of a weak wave keeps the region dry. Mixing depths reach 850mb by the afternoon.

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield

Humid and Mostly Cloudy

Cloudy

89°/ 68°

Cloudy skies will prevail during the morning, gradually giving way to some sunshine. High humidity will make it feel warmer than the actual temperature of 89 degrees.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind5 mph

Wind Chill68°

The "Why"

Ohio River valley maintains low-level moisture but lacks a lifting mechanism. Stratocumulus layers will persist until late mixing.

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton

Light Showers and Morning Mist

Rain

90°/ 71°

Expect patchy light rain and drizzle during the morning and early afternoon. Total accumulations will be around 0.02 inches, which is minimal but may cause damp roads.

Precipitation80%

Wind4 mph

Wind Chill71°

Accumulation

Rain

0.02"

The "Why"

Weak isentropic lift on the 305K surface provides enough saturation for light stratiform rain.

Barren River

NUISANCE

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin

Damp and Humid Conditions

Rain

89°/ 72°

Scattered light rain is expected through the midday hours. While not a washout, the high humidity and damp conditions will linger until late afternoon.

Precipitation80%

Wind5 mph

Wind Chill72°

Accumulation

Rain

0.02"

The "Why"

Saturation is confined strictly to the boundary layer. Poor lapse rates preclude any lightning or thunder.

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville

Cloudy and Dry

Cloudy

88°/ 65°

The Louisville metro area will see plenty of clouds today, but no rain is expected. Temperatures will be slightly lower than the weekend, topping out in the upper 80s.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind4 mph

Wind Chill65°

The "Why"

Mid-level cloud cover is present, but a significant dry layer below 900mb will prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground.

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield

Afternoon Drizzle Possible

Rain

88°/ 68°

A dry morning will give way to a few light afternoon showers or drizzle. Accumulations will be negligible, around 0.01 inches.

Precipitation80%

Wind3 mph

Wind Chill68°

Accumulation

The "Why"

The Muldraugh Escarpment provides enough mechanical lift for drizzle once the boundary layer reaches full saturation.

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello

Persistent Drizzle and Mist

Rain

86°/ 70°

Expect a damp Tuesday with frequent drizzle and light rain showers from morning through early evening. Total rainfall will be around 0.03 inches.

Precipitation80%

Wind4 mph

Wind Chill70°

Accumulation

Rain

0.03"

The "Why"

Plateau injection enhances low-level lift, leading to more persistent drizzle than western regions.

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence

Gray but Dry

Cloudy

85°/ 63°

It will be a mostly gray day with plenty of clouds, but no rain will fall. Highs will be comfortable in the mid-80s.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind4 mph

Wind Chill63°

The "Why"

High cloud cover is driven by a mid-level moisture fetch, but dry air in the lowest 3,000 feet will maintain dry conditions.

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester

Mostly Cloudy Skies

Cloudy

87°/ 65°

Clouds will linger over the Lexington area for much of the day. It will stay dry with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind3 mph

Wind Chill65°

The "Why"

Model soundings show a capped atmosphere with no vertical lift available to generate precipitation.

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE

Richmond, Danville, Berea

Patchy Drizzle and Humidity

Rain

86°/ 68°

Humidity will be high with patchy light rain or drizzle possible at any time. Expect around 0.02 inches of total accumulation.

Precipitation80%

Wind4 mph

Wind Chill68°

Accumulation

Rain

0.02"

The "Why"

Interaction between southwesterly flow and transition zone hills will be sufficient for light stratiform precipitation.

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson

Overcast and Dry

Cloudy

86°/ 65°

Cloudy skies will increase throughout the day, but no rainfall is expected. Winds will be very light.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind2 mph

Wind Chill65°

The "Why"

The region remains on the northern edge of the moisture plume, keeping the lower atmosphere just dry enough to avoid precipitation.

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan

Mountain Mist and Drizzle

Rain

84°/ 69°

Expect a humid and overcast day with scattered light rain and misty conditions, particularly in the valleys. Accumulations around 0.03 inches.

Precipitation80%

Wind5 mph

Wind Chill69°

Accumulation

Rain

0.03"

The "Why"

Orographic lift provides a consistent boost to the shallow moisture layer, making light rain more persistent than in western regions.

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the moisture plume deepens slightly beyond 700mb, light drizzle could transition into steady light rain, potentially leading to localized totals exceeding 0.10 inches in the mountains and lake regions.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If mid-level dry air entrainment is more aggressive, the drizzle will struggle to reach the surface, resulting in nothing more than overcast skies and 'Virga' across the southern tier.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Drizzle Divide

Conflict exists between high precipitation probabilities (PoPs) and extremely low quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). One solution suggests widespread light rain, while the prevailing physics suggest shallow saturation leading only to mist.

EURO

GFS

Why EURO Wins

The European model captures the 'Dry Slot' and low-level moisture depth with more precision, correctly identifying that without CAPE (0 J/kg), precipitation will remain stratiform drizzle rather than convective showers.

Affected Regions

SOUTHWEST PENNYRILEBARREN RIVERLAKE CUMBERLANDBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLSSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

Standard late-summer vertical stack with no significant inversions. Freezing levels are near 14,000 feet, precluding any wintry concerns.

Thermal Boundary

A weak moisture boundary is stalled along the Tennessee border, separating 70-degree dew points in the south from slightly drier air in the north.

Diurnal Trend

Normal diurnal curve with non-eventful overnight cooling. Highs will peak late afternoon with little temperature recovery in drizzly areas.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No front is expected; the region remains in a stagnant, humid warm sector.

Jet Stream Support

Zonal flow at 250mb provides no meaningful divergence or vertical ascent.

Energy Status

Broad cyclonic flow with a lack of any distinct vorticity maxima or shortwaves.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is saturated only in the lowest 2,000-3,000 feet in the south; the northern half of the state remains dry below 850mb.

Precipitation Character

Stratiform drizzle and mist. No convective elements due to 0 J/kg CAPE.

Flooding Context

No flooding risk. Total liquid accumulation is negligible (below 0.05 inches).

Celestial Almanac

Model

Chart Type

GFS • Radar

Sep 8, 12 AM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.

View NAM Analysis View GFS Analysis View ECMWF Analysis View GEM Analysis