Monday, July 20
Regional Summer Downpours Amidst Persistent Humid Heat
Kentucky faces a split weather pattern this Monday. While most of Northern and Central Kentucky will enjoy a mostly sunny and dry day, moisture-rich air will trigger scattered showers in the west and concentrated heavy rainfall across the Southeast Coalfields.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in temperatures and humidity levels; however, significant model disagreement regarding the magnitude of rainfall in the Southeast and the overall coverage of afternoon showers reduces the score.
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Purchase Area
Expect a warm and humid day with scattered rain showers, primarily in the afternoon. Accumulations around 0.12 inches are likely.
Northwest Pennyrile
Light rain showers are possible during the morning and early afternoon. Expect around 0.05 inches of rainfall.
Southwest Pennyrile
Very muggy conditions will persist with a few showers arriving in the late afternoon. Accumulations around 0.05 inches.
Barren River
Expect intermittent light rain throughout the day with total accumulations around 0.10 inches.
Louisville Metro
Most of the day will be sunny and hot. A stray shower is possible this evening, but no meaningful accumulation is expected.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a cloudier day with very high humidity, but most areas will remain dry. Highs in the mid-80s.
Lake Cumberland
Rain showers are expected to move through intermittently. Expect accumulations around 0.10 inches.
Northern Kentucky
A beautiful summer day with wall-to-wall sunshine and comfortable humidity. Highs near 87.
Inner Bluegrass
Mostly sunny skies will prevail in Lexington. A great day for outdoor activities with highs in the mid-80s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a sun-filled morning followed by increasing afternoon clouds. No rain is expected.
Northeast Kentucky
Clear skies and hot temperatures will be the story today. Highs will approach 88 degrees.
Southeast Kentucky
Prepare for heavy rain this afternoon. Accumulations around 0.75 inches are expected, which may cause localized runoff issues.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The NAM scenario verifies where orographic lift maximizes tropical moisture convergence, leading to localized flash flooding in the Southeast Coalfields with rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches, while pulse thunderstorms overperform in the western tiers.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The GFS/Euro drier solutions win out as mid-level dry air entrainment (Virga) limits rainfall reaching the surface, leaving most of the state hot, humid, and rain-free under a building eastern ridge.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Southeast Moisture Surge
The NAM predicts a heavy convective rainfall event in the Southeast Coalfields with over 2 inches of liquid, while the GFS and Euro maintain a significantly drier profile with less than 0.20 inches.
Why NAM Wins
Mesoscale models like the NAM typically resolve orographic enhancement and localized moisture convergence in mountainous terrain better than global models, though its total is likely inflated by its known bullseye bias.
Precipitation Mode Conflict
The Euro forecasts widespread light stratiform rain/drizzle, whereas the GFS and NAM suggest a more typical summer pattern of disorganized, scattered pulse convection.
Why GFS Wins
In a weakly forced tropical environment with high surface temps, buoyancy-driven scattered convection is physically more probable than widespread stratiform drizzle.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.