Forecast For

Friday, February 6

Updated Feb 5, 5:55 PM EST

Confidence

60%

Summary Regions Outcomes Battles Analysis Almanac Charts

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 5, 12:28 PM -> Feb 5, 8:30 PM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 12:28PM EST until February 6 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches with locally higher amounts.

WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.

WHEN From 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, visit 511in.org or call 1-800-261-7623 for the latest road information. In Kentucky, visit goky.ky.gov for the latest road information. In Ohio, visit ohgo.com for the latest road information.

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 5, 12:39 PM -> Feb 5, 8:45 PM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 12:39PM EST until February 7 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches.

WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio.

WHEN From 7 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1 or by accessing the online traffic and roadway portal for your state. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 5, 12:53 PM -> Feb 5, 9:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 12:53PM EST until February 6 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of around 1 inch for most locations; isolated amounts of up to 2 inches are possible.

WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.

WHEN From 8 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 5, 12:53 PM -> Feb 5, 9:00 PM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 12:53PM EST until February 7 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, except 2 to 4 inches above 2,000 feet.

WHERE Harlan, Letcher, and Pike Counties.

WHEN From 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 5, 1:09 PM -> Feb 6, 12:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 1:09PM EST until February 6 at 5:00PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 1 inch for most locations. Isolated amounts of up to 2 inches are possible.

WHERE Portions of Indiana and east central and north central Kentucky.

WHEN From 7 AM to 5 PM EST Friday.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. In Indiana, for Indiana Road Conditions please visit http://511in.org In Kentucky, for Kentucky Road Conditions please visit http://goky.ky.gov

Special Weather Statement

Feb 5, 1:15 PM -> Feb 5, 7:15 PM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 5 at 1:15PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

A period of snow, possibly mixed with rain and sleet, is expected to develop late Friday morning and persist into the afternoon hours. A dusting to one half inch of sloppy snow accumulation is expected for most locations. Travelers are advised to exercise caution and allow extra time to reach their destination on Friday.

Special Weather Statement

Feb 5, 1:20 PM -> Feb 6, 12:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 5 at 1:20PM EST by NWS Louisville KY

A period of snow, possibly mixed with some rain and sleet, is expected to develop Friday morning and continue through the afternoon hours. A dusting to one half inch of slushy snow accumulation is possible in the advisory area. This may cause slick spots to develop on area roadways. Travelers are advised to exercise caution and allow extra time to reach their destinations on Friday.

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 5, 4:04 PM -> Feb 6, 3:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 4:04PM EST until February 6 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Wilmington OH

WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches with locally higher amounts.

WHERE Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.

WHEN From 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

Instructions

Special Weather Statement

Feb 5, 6:55 PM -> Feb 6, 5:45 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued February 5 at 6:55PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 5, 8:23 PM -> Feb 6, 4:30 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 8:23PM EST until February 7 at 1:00AM EST by NWS Charleston WV

WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two inches.

WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky and southeast Ohio.

WHEN From 7 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

Instructions

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 5, 8:40 PM -> Feb 6, 6:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 8:40PM EST until February 6 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of around 1 inch for most locations; isolated amounts of up to 2 inches are possible.

WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky.

WHEN From 8 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Winter Weather Advisory

Feb 5, 8:40 PM -> Feb 6, 6:00 AM

Moderate Severity

Winter Weather Advisory issued February 5 at 8:40PM EST until February 7 at 7:00AM EST by NWS Jackson KY

WHAT Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, except 2 to 4 inches above 2,000 feet.

WHERE Harlan, Letcher, and Pike Counties.

WHEN From 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

IMPACTS Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

Instructions

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for Kentucky can be found by visiting https://goky.ky.gov.

Confidence

60%

Light Snow and Mix East; Windy and Dry West

A compact weather system will sweep across Kentucky today, bringing a period of light snow and rain to the eastern half of the state while western regions stay dry but very windy. Expect a slushy dusting of snow in the north and east, primarily on grassy surfaces, with little to no accumulation in the west or south.

Why is this happening?

Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup

Confidence Assessment

High confidence in precipitation timing and locations; however, confidence is lower regarding snow accumulation totals due to surface temperatures hovering between 32F and 35F.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield

Very Windy and Cold

Cloudy

45°/ 29°

Expect a dry but very windy day under mostly cloudy skies. Wind gusts could reach 40 mph, making it feel significantly colder.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind16 mph / 41 mph

Wind Chill22°

The "Why"

* Momentum transfer from 925mb supports gusts to 41 mph. * Column remains moisture-starved with dewpoint depressions >15F.

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield

Breezy with Afternoon Sprinkles

Rain

42°/ 27°

A quick passing shower is possible this afternoon, but no snow is expected. Winds will be strong throughout the day.

Precipitation80%

Wind17 mph / 35 mph

Wind Chill18°

Accumulation

The "Why"

* Minimal QPF (0.01) associated with the trough tail. * Boundary layer remains too warm (36F+) for frozen precip.

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton

Dry and Overcast

Cloudy

48°/ 28°

Cloudy skies and breezy conditions will prevail, but no precipitation is forecast.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind16 mph / 34 mph

Wind Chill19°

The "Why"

* Subsidence behind the primary wave suppresses vertical motion. * High cloud cover but low-level dry slot remains intact.

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin

Cold Evening Rain Showers

Rain

44°/ 28°

A few light rain showers are possible after sunset, but no snow is expected.

Precipitation80%

Wind16 mph / 32 mph

Wind Chill19°

Accumulation

The "Why"

* 0.01in QPF occurs as surface temps remain >34F. * Lack of synoptic lift prevents higher totals.

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville

Light Afternoon Rain

Rain

37°/ 25°

Expect periods of light rain showers this afternoon. Temperatures will be just warm enough to keep everything as rain.

Precipitation80%

Wind11 mph / 25 mph

Wind Chill17°

Accumulation

Rain

0.05"

The "Why"

* Urban heat island effect and 850mb temps of +1C support liquid precip. * Surface temps of 35-37F preclude snow accumulation.

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield

Brief Morning Mix to Rain

Wintry_Mix

38°/ 26°

A quick dusting of snow is possible early this morning before changing over to a cold rain.

Precipitation80%

Wind13 mph / 30 mph

Wind Chill16°

Accumulation

Rain

0.03"

The "Why"

* Transition from snow to rain as boundary layer warms above 32F after 15Z. * 0.01in snow liquid converted at 10:1 ratio for morning dusting.

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello

Cold and Damp with Light Rain

Rain

40°/ 24°

Periods of light rain will persist through the day, making for a cold and damp afternoon.

Precipitation80%

Wind11 mph / 28 mph

Wind Chill16°

Accumulation

Rain

0.06"

The "Why"

* Orographic lift enhances QPF to 0.06in. * Profile is deep enough in the warm sector to prevent significant snow.

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL

Covington, Florence, Independence

One Inch of Snow Expected

Snow

34°/ 20°

Snow will fall through the afternoon, with accumulations of around one inch expected on grassy surfaces and cars.

Precipitation80%

Wind13 mph / 35 mph

Wind Chill11°

Accumulation

Snow

0.8"

The "Why"

* Sub-freezing profile above 1000ft ensures all precip falls as snow. * Low-ratio snow (7:1) due to surface temps of 33-34F.

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester

Half-Inch of Snow then Rain

Wintry_Mix

34°/ 22°

Expect about a half-inch of slushy snow this morning, followed by a transition to cold rain by afternoon.

Precipitation80%

Wind14 mph / 30 mph

Wind Chill12°

Accumulation

Rain

0.08"

Snow

0.5"

The "Why"

* 0.07in morning liquid at 7:1 ratio provides ~0.5in snow. * Afternoon transition as 850mb warm nose hits +2C.

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE

Richmond, Danville, Berea

Slushy Mix Likely

Wintry_Mix

35°/ 23°

A mix of rain and snow is expected, leaving a light coating on the grass but little impact on roads.

Precipitation80%

Wind12 mph / 28 mph

Wind Chill12°

Accumulation

Rain

0.08"

Snow

0.2"

The "Why"

* Topographic effects favor localized mix. * SLRs remain low (5:1) in the afternoon.

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson

Over One Inch of Snow Possible

Snow

33°/ 22°

Steady snow will fall today, primarily this afternoon. Accumulations around 1.2 inches are expected.

Precipitation80%

Wind10 mph / 25 mph

Wind Chill15°

Accumulation

Snow

1.2"

The "Why"

* Cold air damming maintains frozen profile. * Consistent 8:1 ratio based on deeper sub-freezing layer.

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan

Mountain Snow Accumulations

Snow

35°/ 21°

Snow will arrive later today for the mountains, with accumulations of around one inch likely by tonight.

Precipitation80%

Wind10 mph / 30 mph

Wind Chill15°

Accumulation

Rain

0.15"

Snow

1.0"

The "Why"

* Orographic lift maximizes QPF in SE Coalfields. * Afternoon mix transitions to all snow by sunset as dynamic cooling takes place.

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If dynamic cooling is more robust and the 850mb warm nose stays further south, snow-to-liquid ratios (SLRs) could reach 10:1 statewide. This would result in widespread 1-2 inch accumulations for the Bluegrass and 3 inches for the Northeast.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If boundary layer warming exceeds projections or a 'dry slot' moves in faster, most of the state will see only a few morning flurries or a cold drizzle, with no measurable accumulation outside of the highest mountain peaks.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

Northeastern Snow Totals

The Euro is forecasting nearly 2 inches of snow for Ashland/Morehead, which is double the GFS and NAM forecasts.

EURO

GFS

NAM

Why BLEND Wins

Per protocol, when the Euro is a high outlier (>2x GFS), a blend centered on the GFS/NAM mean is more reliable to avoid over-forecasting marginal clipper events.

Affected Regions

NORTHEAST KYNORTHERN KY

The 850mb Warm Nose Conflict

Models disagree on how far north a +2C layer at 850mb penetrates. The NAM and GEM are more aggressive with this warm air, suggesting a quick transition to rain for the Bluegrass, while the Euro and GFS keep it cold enough for snow through the afternoon.

NAM

GEM

GFS

Why NAM Wins

The NAM typically handles shallow cold air and the erosion of a warm nose more accurately within the 0-36 hour window by better resolving low-level moisture and thermal boundaries.

Affected Regions

BLUEGRASS CORELOUISVILLE METROLINCOLN TRAILBLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A nearly isothermal layer exists near the freezing mark from the surface to 850mb in the East. A marginal warm nose (+1C to +2C) is expected to develop between 850-900mb across Central KY by afternoon.

Thermal Boundary

The 0C surface isotherm will be draped along the I-64 corridor for much of the morning, shifting slowly north of the Ohio River by sunset.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal steadying of temperatures is expected in the east due to heavy cloud cover and precipitation; standard diurnal warming will occur in the west.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A weak secondary cold front will sweep through between 12Z and 18Z, evidenced by a sharp increase in wind gusts from the west/northwest exceeding 30 mph.

Jet Stream Support

The right-entrance region of a 110kt jet streak provides synoptic-scale lift over the northeastern quadrant of the state.

Energy Status

A compact positive vorticity maximum (3.3e-4) pivots through the Bluegrass between 15Z and 21Z, providing the primary lift for precipitation.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is saturated below 700mb in the east, but a significant 'dry slot' in the west will result in virga failing to reach the surface.

Precipitation Character

Mostly stratiform precipitation, though some orographic enhancement (convective bursts) is likely in the Southeast Coalfields and Bluegrass Foothills.

Flooding Context

Hydrologic risk is zero as total liquid equivalent remains below 0.25 inches across the entire state.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

850mb temperatures between -2C and -4C support snow aloft, but a surface warm layer of 1,500 feet will force melting to rain in the west and central regions.

Crystal Habit

Wet, rimed flakes are expected due to a very shallow Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) and marginal thermal profiles.

Road Impact

Accumulations will be primarily on grassy and elevated surfaces. Pavement temperatures remain high enough to mitigate widespread travel impacts, though slush is possible on bridges.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

77% Illumination

Moonrise

10:40 PM

Moonset

10:18 AM

Purchase Area

Sunrise

7:54 AM

Sunset

6:25 PM

Civil Dawn

7:26 AM

Civil Dusk

6:52 PM

Northwest Pennyrile

Sunrise

7:49 AM

Sunset

6:18 PM

Civil Dawn

7:21 AM

Civil Dusk

6:45 PM

Southwest Pennyrile

Sunrise

7:49 AM

Sunset

6:21 PM

Civil Dawn

7:22 AM

Civil Dusk

6:48 PM

Barren River

Sunrise

7:45 AM

Sunset

6:17 PM

Civil Dawn

7:18 AM

Civil Dusk

6:44 PM

Louisville Metro

Sunrise

7:44 AM

Sunset

6:12 PM

Civil Dawn

7:17 AM

Civil Dusk

6:39 PM

Lincoln Trail

Sunrise

7:44 AM

Sunset

6:13 PM

Civil Dawn

7:16 AM

Civil Dusk

6:40 PM

Lake Cumberland

Sunrise

7:38 AM

Sunset

6:09 PM

Civil Dawn

7:10 AM

Civil Dusk

6:36 PM

Northern Kentucky

Sunrise

7:41 AM

Sunset

6:05 PM

Civil Dawn

7:13 AM

Civil Dusk

6:33 PM

Inner Bluegrass

Sunrise

7:39 AM

Sunset

6:07 PM

Civil Dawn

7:11 AM

Civil Dusk

6:34 PM

Bluegrass Foothills

Sunrise

7:38 AM

Sunset

6:07 PM

Civil Dawn

7:10 AM

Civil Dusk

6:34 PM

Northeast Kentucky

Sunrise

7:32 AM

Sunset

5:59 PM

Civil Dawn

7:05 AM

Civil Dusk

6:26 PM

Southeast Kentucky

Sunrise

7:32 AM

Sunset

6:03 PM

Civil Dawn

7:05 AM

Civil Dusk

6:30 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.

View NAM Analysis View GFS Analysis View ECMWF Analysis View GEM Analysis