Thursday, March 26
Early Summer Warmth with Gusty Winds and Northern Showers
A powerful surge of unseasonably warm air will dominate Kentucky on Thursday, pushing temperatures into the 70s and low 80s statewide. While most of the Commonwealth remains dry and sunny, a fast-moving disturbance will bring a corridor of light to moderate rain showers along the Ohio River and into Northern Kentucky. The primary impact for all Kentuckians will be significant southwesterly winds, with gusts frequently exceeding 40 mph through the afternoon.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the unseasonable warmth and high wind gusts. Lower confidence in exact rainfall totals for the northern tier due to significant dry air below 5,000 feet which may induce virga.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A beautiful and unseasonably warm day with highs reaching the low 80s. The main weather story will be the wind, with gusts reaching 42 mph in the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Mostly sunny and very warm with temperatures peaking in the low 80s. Secure loose items as wind gusts will climb toward 44 mph.
Southwest Pennyrile
Enjoy May-like weather with plenty of sun and highs in the low 80s. Breezy conditions will persist all day with 35 mph gusts.
Barren River
Temperatures will soar into the low 80s under bright, sunny skies. Winds will be gusty, reaching up to 39 mph at times.
Louisville Metro
A few light rain showers are likely during the morning commute, but skies will clear by afternoon. Temperatures will reach 81 degrees with gusty winds up to 40 mph.
Lincoln Trail
A very warm day with more sun than clouds. Highs will be near 79. Wind gusts of 40 mph will be common in the afternoon.
Lake Cumberland
Mostly cloudy in the morning with sun breaking through later in the day. Highs will reach the upper 70s with a steady south breeze.
Northern Kentucky
Rain showers will move through the area during the morning and midday hours. Expect around 0.35 inches of rain before clearing occurs. It remains warm with a high of 78.
Inner Bluegrass
A very windy day with gusts up to 41 mph. Highs will be in the upper 70s. A few light showers are possible during the afternoon, but they will be brief.
Bluegrass Foothills
A mix of clouds and sun with temperatures reaching the upper 70s. Gusty winds reaching 38 mph are expected throughout the afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Light rain showers will pass through the area during the afternoon. Accumulations will be minimal, around a tenth of an inch, with highs in the mid-70s.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will stay dry today with more clouds than sun. Highs will be in the mid-70s. Winds will be lighter than the rest of the state, but still breezy with 30 mph gusts.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The NAM solution verifies with a deeper moisture profile, leading to over 0.75 inches of rain in Northern Kentucky and localized wind gusts reaching 50 mph as mixing depths maximize.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The GFS/GEM dry air wins, resulting in most northern precipitation evaporating as virga and increased cloud cover keeping afternoon highs in the mid-70s rather than the low 80s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Northern QPF Divide
The NAM is an aggressive outlier, depicting a focused corridor of nearly an inch of rain in Northern KY, whereas the GFS and GEM show barely a tenth of an inch due to a dry sub-cloud layer.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides a stable middle-ground (0.20-0.30") that acknowledges the moisture transport seen in the NAM but respects the dry-air entrainment and fast storm motion noted by the GFS.
Thermal Ridge Intensity
The ECMWF is notably more aggressive with the thermal ridge, suggesting highs in the mid-80s (86F) in Western KY, while the NAM/GFS/GEM cluster in the 80-83F range.
Why BLEND Wins
Given the potential for high-level cloud debris from northern showers to filter sunshine, the mid-80s seem slightly overdone. A blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM is more realistic for late March.
Celestial Almanac
First Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.