Saturday, September 5
Hot and Humid with Scattered Morning Sprinkles
A weak atmospheric disturbance will traverse Kentucky on September 5th, bringing a high probability of light rain showers and drizzle to much of the state. Despite the clouds, unseasonable summer heat will persist with highs in the 80s and 90s. Many areas may see rain evaporate before reaching the ground due to dry low-level air.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high regarding the unseasonable heat, but lower regarding whether the high PoPs will translate into measurable rainfall at the surface due to sub-cloud evaporation (virga).
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Purchase Area
Expect a hot day with temperatures soaring into the lower 90s. A few light showers are possible during the afternoon, but they will provide little cooling relief.
Northwest Pennyrile
Light rain will be possible throughout much of the morning and afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the high 80s despite the cloud cover.
Southwest Pennyrile
This region will likely stay dry and quite hot today with temperatures in the 90s.
Barren River
A mix of sun and clouds is expected with temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark.
Louisville Metro
Commuters may face some light drizzle or a brief shower during the morning rush.
Lincoln Trail
Light rain is possible before noon, followed by a warm and humid afternoon.
Lake Cumberland
Expect some light rain during the morning hours, clearing for a warm afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
A drier air mass to the north will keep the rain away from the Cincinnati area today.
Inner Bluegrass
Light rain is likely this morning, with clouds breaking for a warm afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
A brief period of rain is expected this morning, followed by mid-80s heat.
Northeast Kentucky
Cloudy skies and light morning showers will dominate the Ashland area.
Southeast Kentucky
Mountain peaks may catch a bit more rain than the valleys this morning.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level impulse slows and interacts with deeper Gulf moisture, precipitation totals could reach 0.10 to 0.25 inches, providing more substantial cooling relief and wetting the ground effectively.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Should the sub-cloud dry layer remain more robust than modeled, the disturbance will pass as a 'dry front' with nothing more than mid-level cloud decks and trace sprinkles, leaving the heat entirely unchecked.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga Vendetta
Models are clashing over whether the low-level dry air will prevent rain from reaching the surface. The GFS shows widespread light accumulation (The 'Smear' Effect), while the Euro is much more conservative.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles moisture cutoffs and dry slots with higher precision in zonal flow regimes. Given the strong 'inverted-V' signal in soundings, the drier solution for surface accumulation is more physically sound.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.