Thursday, September 3
Sultry and Damp: Widespread Light Rain and Summer Heat
A stagnant, tropical moisture profile will persist across Kentucky, bringing high humidity and widespread light stratiform rain or drizzle. While temperatures will reach the mid-90s in many areas, a lack of instability will keep precipitation light and non-convective.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the presence of tropical moisture and 90-degree heat; lower confidence in the exact liquid totals reaching the ground due to the light nature of the precipitation.
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Purchase Area
Expect a very warm start with rain chances increasing after sunrise. Showers will be light but frequent through the afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Clouds and light rain will persist, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures remain muggy.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect the warmest temperatures in the state here, reaching the mid-90s. Rain will be light and shouldn't provide much cooling.
Barren River
Humid air remains trapped in the region, keeping it feeling very sticky. Light rain will be possible throughout the entire day.
Louisville Metro
Expect a hot afternoon despite the clouds. Light rain will move through, totaling about a tenth of an inch.
Lincoln Trail
It will be a damp and warm day. Most rain will fall as a light drizzle rather than heavy storms.
Lake Cumberland
The air will be heavy with moisture today. While rain is likely, it will mostly be light and patchy.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will see some of the most persistent rain today. Rain will remain light overall, totaling near 0.13 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Light rain will be common around Lexington today. It will feel very humid as temperatures reach the 90s.
Bluegrass Foothills
A humid day is expected with off-and-on light rain showers. Temperatures will be slightly lower than the west but still very warm.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect a very muggy day with plenty of light rain and valley mist. It won't be a heavy rain, just a persistent dampness.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will likely be shrouded in clouds and light rain today. Temperatures stay warm but damp.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If moisture convergence maximizes and cloud cover persists, we could see more widespread light showers totaling 0.25 to 0.40 inches, which would provide slightly more relief from the 90-degree heat.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If sub-cloud dry air is more prevalent than currently modeled, much of the light rain will evaporate as virga, leaving the state with oppressive humidity and temperatures soaring into the upper 90s without any rainfall cooling.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga Venture
Disagreement exists between high-resolution moisture layers and the ability for light precipitation to reach the ground through a deep, warm boundary layer.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles 'Dry Slots' and low-level moisture saturation better than the GFS, which tends to over-smear light precipitation that often doesn't reach the surface.
Valley Moisture Trapping
A conflict regarding how much moisture remains trapped in the eastern valleys vs. mixing out in the afternoon.
Why NONE Wins
Uncertainty remains high as the weak wind field (under 5mph) makes it difficult to determine if the moisture will remain stagnant or slowly disperse.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.