This is the ECMWF model's output only
You're viewing raw atmospheric data from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (IFS)). This is just one model's interpretation and it may disagree with the other models.
Our AI uses this data (along with other models) to create the final forecast. Don't treat this as the definitive answer.
View the Synthesized Forecast InsteadScattered Showers and Humid Conditions Across Most of Kentucky
Pack an umbrella if you are out and about across most of the state. While it won't be a washout, scattered light rain showers will be moving through periodically from the early morning hours through the late afternoon. The best chance for rain will be in the southern and western parts of the state.
The northern part of the state, particularly near the Ohio River and Covington, will likely stay dry. Elsewhere, expect plenty of clouds and muggy conditions with temperatures reaching the mid-to-upper 80s. The rain will taper off as we head into the evening hours.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature profile is typical of a tropical airmass with moist-adiabatic lapse rates and no significant inversions or warm noses. High surface dewpoints in the 70s suggest a high-floor for overnight lows.
The entire state remains in the warm sector south of a stalled frontal boundary near the Great Lakes.
The diurnal curve is muted due to high cloud cover and evaporative cooling from light rain showers. Highs will struggle to reach the 90s despite the warm airmass.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage is observed. Wind shifts are negligible and remain light from the south/southwest.
The jet stream is located well to the north across the Great Lakes, providing only weak large-scale divergence over Kentucky.
A series of weak shortwave troughs (vorticity maximums) are pivoting through the broad cyclonic flow, acting as the primary trigger for the scattered showers.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The column is largely saturated below 500mb across the southern half of the state, while Northern Kentucky exhibits a dry slot above 850mb, limiting precip there.
Precipitation is primarily stratiform in nature with light rain and drizzle, though localized convective bursts are possible where minor clearing occurs.
Hydrologic conditions are stable. Rainfall totals are too low to pose any flood risk, and the high evapotranspiration rates of mid-July will mitigate the modest liquid input.
A Damp and Humid Summer Monday
Kentucky residents should prepare for a soggy start to the week. Widespread light rain and overcast skies will persist across most of the state, especially through the afternoon hours. While no severe weather is expected, the high humidity and persistent cloud cover will make for a very muggy day.
Most regions will see rain chances peak during the middle of the day. Temperatures will reach into the 80s and low 90s, though the rain and clouds will offer some relief from the typical July sun. Only Northern Kentucky looks to stay relatively dry, remaining mostly cloudy throughout the day.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
Standard moist adiabatic summer profile. No significant inversions. Temperature and dewpoint spreads are narrow (<5F) across most of the state.
The entire state is positioned within a broad warm-sector moisture plume; the freezing line is well above 14,000ft.
Muted diurnal curve due to high cloud cover (40-80%) and persistent precipitation, especially in western and central regions.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage. Surface winds remain light and southwesterly at 1-7 mph.
Moderate jet support from the sub-tropical jet; Kentucky sits in the right entrance region, favoring broad synoptic lift.
A broad, weak shortwave trough is pivoting through the Ohio Valley, providing subtle vorticity but lacks significant organized energy.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Atmospheric column is saturated below 700mb across 90% of the state. Northern Kentucky shows a drier mid-level layer, hence lower PoPs.
Predominantly stratiform light rain and drizzle. Lack of CAPE prevents convective enhancement or thunderstorm development.
No flooding risk. Total rainfall amounts are below 0.20 inches, and soil moisture capacity is sufficient to absorb this light precipitation.
Soggy and Humid Conditions Prevail Statewide
Keep the umbrellas handy today as a persistent weather system brings rain to almost every corner of Kentucky. While it won't be a total washout every minute, multiple waves of showers are expected from morning through the evening.
It will feel quite muggy out there, with temperatures climbing into the 80s and even low 90s in the west. The combination of heat and moisture will make for a very sticky day, especially in the Purchase and Pennyrile regions.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack is characterized by a moist-adiabatic lapse rate with no significant inversions, keeping the entire column above freezing.
The thermal boundary (freezing line) is located well north of the Ohio River into Southern Canada.
Diurnal cooling is heavily suppressed by a saturated boundary layer and thick overcast, resulting in very small temperature spreads.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No distinct frontal passage; however, a weak trough is pivoting through the broad cyclonic flow.
The Jet Stream is providing moderate lift via right-entrance region divergence, primarily over Central Kentucky.
Broad cyclonic flow with multiple embedded shortwaves of low-amplitude vorticity.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is deeply saturated; dewpoint depressions are minimal (<3F), eliminating virga risk.
Primarily stratiform rain with higher-intensity bursts likely due to high moisture efficiency.
Hydrologic conditions are stable, but localized training of storms over the same terrain in Northeast/Southeast KY may cause minor ponding.
Early Morning Showers East; Clearing and Warm West
Expect a tale of two halves for the Commonwealth. Residents in Western Kentucky will enjoy a mostly sunny and warm day with highs reaching the mid-80s.
In Central and Eastern Kentucky, the day starts with damp conditions as light rain showers move through during the morning hours. These will taper off by the afternoon, leading to a humid but pleasant evening.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
A standard warm-season profile exists across Kentucky with no significant thermal inversions or freezing layers. Surface temperatures will remain in the 60s and 70s during precipitation events.
No major frontal boundaries are present; only a diffuse moisture boundary associated with a departing trough axis across the Southeast Coalfields.
Standard diurnal curves are expected, though high-latitude cloud cover in the morning will slow the early rise in the east.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
None. The weather is driven by a mid-level shortwave rather than a surface cold front.
Moderate zonal flow with the right entrance region of a weak 300mb jet providing synoptic lift for the southern half of the state.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the Tennessee Valley and will exit into the Atlantic states by evening.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The column is saturated through 700mb in the southeast, while the northwest shows significant dry air entrainment and dewpoint depressions of 15-20F.
Primarily stratiform rain with some drizzle in the wake of the main moisture lobe.
Hydrologic conditions are stable. Rainfall totals of under 0.50 inches will not stress local waterways.
Seasonal Warmth with Scattered Southern Showers
Kentucky is looking at a classic summer day for July 23rd. Most of the state will enjoy a mix of sunshine and clouds with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and low 80s. It will be a great day for outdoor activities across Northern and Central Kentucky where rain is not expected.
However, if you are in Southern or Southeastern Kentucky—specifically near Bowling Green, Somerset, or Hazard—you'll want to keep an umbrella handy. Light rain showers are expected to move through during the morning and afternoon hours. These won't be washouts, but they will provide some damp conditions periodically before tapering off by sunset.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack is representative of a standard summer atmosphere. Surface temperatures in the 80s with an adiabatic lapse rate up to the mid-levels (approx 500mb). No significant inversions are present.
The freezing line (0C isotherm) is located well above the flight levels, approximately at 14,000 ft AGL.
A standard diurnal curve is expected, though high cloud cover in the west and light rain in the south will shave 2-3 degrees off potential peak afternoon heating.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage. The state is under the influence of broad, weak high pressure to the northeast and a subtle surface trough along the Tennessee border.
The polar jet is well to the north (near the Canadian border). A weak subtropical jet streak is present but provides no significant synoptic lift over Kentucky.
A compact but weak shortwave trough is pivoting through the Tennessee Valley, providing the lift necessary for the light rain showers in the southern regions.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is saturated in the low-to-mid levels across the south. In the north (Northern KY/Northeast KY), dewpoint depressions of 15-20F are present, maintaining dry conditions.
Stratiform. The lack of CAPE (0 J/kg) prevents convective development, resulting in steady, light rain or drizzle rather than thunderstorms.
No flooding risk. Ground conditions are receptive to moisture, and the forecast 0.01" is negligible.
Widespread Clouds and Light Rain for Western Kentucky
Residents across Western and Central Kentucky should plan for a gray and damp day on 2026-07-24. Light rain will be most consistent in the morning and evening hours, especially near Paducah and Owensboro. While the rain won't be heavy enough to cause flooding, it will keep roads slick and outdoor plans dampened.
Northern and Northeastern parts of the state, including Covington and Ashland, will likely escape the rain but will still see mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will stay in the comfortable 70s and low 80s throughout the day, providing a break from the typical July heat.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature profile across Kentucky is characterized by a moist adiabatic lapse rate with no significant inversions or 'warm noses' present. Surface temperatures in the 70s and 80s align with a deep moisture profile, supporting stratiform rain.
The effective thermal boundary/freezing line is well north of the region (Canada); a weak moisture boundary is stalled along the KY/TN border.
Temperature trends are muted and non-diurnal in the west due to persistent cloud cover (cloud-shading), while the east follows a standard but capped diurnal curve.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage is observed. Winds remain light and variable, indicating a weak pressure gradient and a lack of baroclinic support.
The region is influenced by the left-exit region of a 90-100kt jet streak at 250mb, providing weak but sufficient synoptic lift for light rain.
The state is under a regime of broad cyclonic flow with a weak shortwave trough pivoting through the Ohio Valley.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is saturated from the surface to roughly 700mb in Western KY. In the East, larger dewpoint depressions (15F+) at the surface indicate a high risk of virga (evaporating rain).
Precipitation will be strictly 'Stratiform,' manifesting as light, steady rain or drizzle with no convective bursts or lightning.
Hydrologic risk is zero. Antecedent conditions are normal, and forecast totals (<0.30in) are well below infiltration rates.
Rain West, Dry East for Late July
Residents in Western Kentucky should prepare for a soggy start to the day. Rain will be most persistent in areas like Paducah and Hopkinsville during the morning hours, gradually tapering off to scattered showers by the afternoon.
In contrast, those in Louisville, Lexington, and Northern Kentucky will enjoy a much drier day. While clouds will be present in the morning, the sun is expected to break through by the afternoon with temperatures reaching the comfortable low 80s.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature profile across the state is characterized by a warm, moist boundary layer in the west and a drier, stable boundary layer in the east. No significant thermal inversions are noted except for shallow nocturnal valley inversions in the Southeast.
The 0°C isotherm is located well above 14,000 feet state-wide, precluding any wintry precipitation.
The diurnal curve is suppressed in Western Kentucky due to 80-100% cloud cover and precipitation. In Central and Eastern Kentucky, the curve is more traditional with highs reaching the low 80s.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage is observed. The system is a purely moisture-driven event associated with a decaying mid-level disturbance.
The region is positioned under a weak 100-knot jet stream, providing broad, non-concentrated lift for stratiform rain.
Energy status is low, with vorticity values essentially at zero. The event is a 'moisture advection' play rather than a 'dynamic' play.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The western column is saturated through the mid-levels. In Central Kentucky, large dewpoint depressions (>15°F) suggest a risk of Virga, where rain evaporates before reaching the ground.
The character of the precipitation is stratiform, consisting of steady, wide-reaching light to moderate rain in the west and intermittent drizzle in the south-central plateau.
Hydrologic context is stable. Antecedent soil moisture is at normal levels, and rainfall rates will not exceed soil infiltration capacity.
Scattered Morning Showers Giving Way to Afternoon Clearing
Kentucky will see a split in weather conditions for July 26. Residents in the western half of the state and the southern coalfields should expect a damp start to the day, with light rain showers likely during the morning commute. However, these showers will be very light and are not expected to cause any travel issues.
By the afternoon, the rain will move out, and the sun will begin to peek through the clouds. Temperatures will be quite warm but typical for late July, with highs reaching the mid-80s across the state. The northern and Bluegrass regions will stay mostly dry throughout the day with just a few passing clouds.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
Standard adiabatic lapse rate throughout the troposphere with no evidence of capping or surface inversions.
N/A; the entire state is firmly in a warm, moist tropical airmass.
Diurnal warming cycle will be standard, though slightly modulated by morning cloud cover and light precipitation in the western/southern counties.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No front is expected; weather is driven by an embedded mid-level shortwave.
Kentucky sits on the anticyclonic side of a 60kt mid-level jet, providing modest but sufficient lift for stratiform rain.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the central US into the Ohio Valley, peaking in intensity around 12Z-15Z.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Atmospheric column is saturated between 925mb and 750mb. Significant dry air exists above 500mb, which will limit total rainfall depths.
Stratiform light rain and drizzle.
Soil moisture is moderate, and with rainfall totals less than 0.10 inches, there is no hydrologic risk.