This is the ECMWF model's output only
You're viewing raw atmospheric data from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (IFS)). This is just one model's interpretation and it may disagree with the other models.
Our AI uses this data (along with other models) to create the final forecast. Don't treat this as the definitive answer.
View the Synthesized Forecast InsteadA Tale of Two Kentuckys: Rain West, Snow North
Prepare for a weather split across the state this Friday. If you are in the Purchase or Pennyrile regions, expect a chilly but mostly dry day with some sunshine peaking through. Central Kentucky, including Louisville and Lexington, will see light rain showers throughout the day, so keep the umbrella handy.
The real impact will be in Northern and Northeastern Kentucky, where cold air will stay locked in. Light but steady snow will fall from the morning through the evening. While not a major blizzard, it will be enough to coat the grass and potentially create slick spots on untreated roads, especially during the morning commute.
By evening, the moisture exits the state, but temperatures will drop sharply. Any wet roads could freeze quickly, so be cautious of 'black ice' development overnight.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
A low-level inversion is prominent across the northern tier of the state, where surface temperatures are trapped below 32F while a +2C warm nose exists around 850mb just to the south. This results in the sharp rain/snow line seen across the Bluegrass Core.
Stalled over the Ohio River and pushing slowly east through the Bluegrass Core.
Non-diurnal across the North and Northeast; temperatures remain nearly flat under heavy cloud cover and cold air damming.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
A weak surface trough moves through during the morning, but the primary driver is mid-level vorticity associated with a 500mb shortwave.
Kentucky is positioned in the left exit region of a 110kt 250mb jet, providing broad synoptic-scale lift.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the central Ohio Valley, providing the necessary forcing for the 80% PoPs.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is deeply saturated from the surface to 500mb, particularly along and east of I-65.
Primarily stratiform precipitation, with some localized enhancement in the Northeast due to orographic lift.
Low hydrologic risk; total liquid amounts are generally under 0.25 inches statewide.
Winter Physics
Cold-season microphysics. This analyzes how snowflakes form, what type of crystals to expect, and whether roads will be warm enough to prevent accumulation.
A significant 'Warm Nose' is present at 850mb south of Lexington, but the column remains entirely below freezing in Covington and Ashland.
Snow quality will be standard (10:1) with some riming possible in the Southeast Coalfields during the evening transition.
Accumulation will be most efficient on cold, elevated surfaces. Pavement temperatures may remain just high enough in urban areas like Louisville to prevent flash freezing until late night.
Arctic Chill Grips the Commonwealth with Lingering Flurries East
It is going to be a very cold day across Kentucky as arctic air remains locked in place. Most of us will see a mix of sun and clouds, but temperatures will struggle to get much above freezing in the west, and will stay in the teens and 20s for the rest of the state.
Those in the Southeast Coalfields may wake up to a light dusting of snow on the ground from overnight showers. While no major travel disruptions are expected, untreated bridges could have a few slick spots early in the morning.
By the afternoon, winds will remain light but the 'chill factor' will be noticeable. Make sure to dress in layers if you are heading out, especially in Northern and Northeast Kentucky where wind chills will stay in the single digits or low teens.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
A deep arctic air mass (cP) is in place with 850mb temperatures ranging from -12C in the south to -16C in the north. A significant subsidence inversion is developing around 700mb as surface high pressure builds.
The freezing line is south of the Tennessee border, keeping the entire Commonwealth in a sub-freezing regime for the majority of the day.
Diurnal curves are suppressed due to strong cold air advection (CAA) from the north-northwest. Areas in the north will experience a nearly non-diurnal trend as clouds increase in the afternoon.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
Post-frontal environment. High pressure (1032mb) is the dominant feature.
A 110kt jet streak at 300mb is positioned to our north, placing Kentucky in the stable right-entrance region.
A weakening shortwave trough is exiting the Appalachians, providing the final bit of lift for southeastern snow flurries before 12z.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The column is mostly dry (PWATs < 0.20in), with the exception of the 850mb-700mb layer in the southeast where moisture remains trapped.
Precipitation in the east is stratiform and light, limited by the shallow nature of the saturated layer.
Hydrologic risk is zero due to the frozen nature of precip and low liquid equivalents.
Winter Physics
Cold-season microphysics. This analyzes how snowflakes form, what type of crystals to expect, and whether roads will be warm enough to prevent accumulation.
Vertical profiles show no warm nose; the entire column is supportive of snow from cloud to ground.
The saturation overlaps perfectly with the -12C to -18C Dendritic Growth Zone, maximizing snow-to-liquid ratios (15:1).
Very cold pavement temperatures will ensure that any moisture that falls will immediately freeze, though the lack of significant QPF limits the overall impact.
Frigid Start with Light Snow North and East
Most of Kentucky will remain dry today, but it will be a tale of two states. In the west, temperatures will finally climb out of the deep freeze, reaching the upper 40s under partly cloudy skies. However, across Northern and Northeastern Kentucky, it remains quite cold with light snow showers and flurries through the morning hours.
Travel impacts will be minimal for most, though some slick spots are possible on bridges and overpasses in the Ashland and Covington areas where a light dusting of snow is expected. Skies will begin to clear from west to east by the late afternoon as high pressure takes firmer control.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
A complex thermal environment features a retreating Arctic high and a weak warm nose attempting to push into Western Kentucky at 925mb. Eastern Kentucky remains locked in a deep-layer cold profile with surface temperatures well below the 850mb temps, indicating strong low-level stability.
The 32F surface isotherm is propped along the Muldraugh Escarpment, extending northeast toward the Bluegrass.
Standard diurnal recovery in the west; stunted recovery in the northeast due to cloud cover and persistent cold air damming.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No significant frontal passage; the weather is driven by a surface ridge move-out and weak northern stream vorticity.
The right entrance region of a 110kt jet at 300mb is providing just enough synoptic lift to maintain light snow in Northern/Northeastern KY.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the Ohio Valley, maximizing lift between 06z and 12z.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Column is saturated in the 0-3km layer in the North, but significant dry air (15F+ dewpoint depressions) exists south of I-64, leading to virga.
Stratiform light snow in the north; otherwise dry.
Hydrologic threat is zero; ground is frozen or dry across the commonwealth.
Winter Physics
Cold-season microphysics. This analyzes how snowflakes form, what type of crystals to expect, and whether roads will be warm enough to prevent accumulation.
Entirely sub-freezing profile for NKY/NEKY; no warm nose present to cause melting.
Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) is saturated between 700mb and 800mb in the NE, supporting high 15:1 snow ratios.
Sub-freezing road temperatures in the NE will lead to immediate accumulation on untreated surfaces.
Pleasant and Sunny Across Kentucky
Expect a beautiful but crisp day across the state. We will start with a frosty morning, especially in Northern and Eastern Kentucky where temperatures will be in the low 20s. However, the sun will be out in full force throughout the day.
By the afternoon, temperatures will climb nicely. Western Kentucky will see the warmest conditions with highs near 60 degrees, while the rest of the state enjoys temperatures in the mid-40s to low 50s. Winds will remain light, making for a perfect day for outdoor activities.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
Across Kentucky, a deep dry layer exists from the surface up to 500mb. A strong nocturnal inversion will be present in the morning hours, breaking by 14Z-15Z due to intense solar insolation.
The freezing line will be at the surface across the majority of the state during the early morning hours, retreating well north of the Ohio River by noon.
Strictly diurnal temperature curve. Clear skies allow for maximum radiational cooling overnight (lows in the 20s) and rapid heating during the day.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage. Surface high pressure is centered over the region with a 1024mb center.
Zonal flow at 300mb with a moderate jet streak well to the south over the Gulf Coast, providing no significant synoptic lift for Kentucky.
Neutral vorticity field. Mid-level heights are rising slightly as a ridge builds from the west.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Atmospheric column is well below saturation. Large dewpoint depressions (15-25F) at the surface preclude any risk of precipitation or significant cloud cover.
None. The environment is too dry to support even stratiform drizzle.
None. Rivers are within banks and soils are unsaturated.
Mild and Damp: Widespread Rain Follows a Cold Start
Kentucky will experience a significant warm-up today as mild air from the south surges into the state. While the morning starts off chilly—particularly in Northern and Eastern Kentucky where temperatures are near freezing—everyone will see a substantial jump into the 50s and 60s by the afternoon.
Rain will develop from west to east starting around midday. The heaviest rain is expected during the evening hours. While it won't be a washout for the entire day, you will certainly need the umbrella for the evening commute and any late-night plans. Total rainfall will generally be light, averaging around a tenth of an inch.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
Strong warm air advection (WAA) is the primary driver. Morning profiles show a classic nocturnal/radiational inversion, especially in the eastern valleys (Surface 30F / 850mb 40F), which erodes by mid-morning as southwesterly flow increases.
The effective freezing line and 850mb 0C isotherm retreat north of the Ohio River into Indiana and Ohio by 15z.
Diurnal warming is sharp in the morning, followed by a non-diurnal plateau in the evening as thick cloud cover and rain onset limit radiational cooling.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
A warm front lifts through the state between 09z and 15z, evidenced by a wind shift from light easterly to sustained southwesterly at 10-15mph.
The region is positioned in the right-entrance region of a 100-110kt upper-level jet streak, providing broad synoptic-scale lift.
A compact shortwave trough is propped to pivot through the mid-Mississippi valley, reaching Kentucky after 00z, which will peak the precipitation intensity.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Initially dry at the surface in the east, posing a 'Virga' risk between 15z-18z. Column saturates from the top-down thereafter.
Stratiform light to moderate rain. No convective elements expected due to zero CAPE.
Hydro concerns are nil. Ground is not saturated and rainfall rates will remain below 0.10"/hr.
Rain Tapers Off as Temperatures Crash Statewide
Pack an umbrella early but keep a jacket handy for the afternoon. A cold front is moving across Kentucky, bringing a soak of rain to start the day. As the front passes, you will notice the wind shift and temperatures drop steadily.
By the afternoon, most of Western and Central Kentucky will see the rain move out, but the air will feel much colder than the morning. Eastern Kentucky will hold onto the rain the longest, with showers potentially lingering into the evening hours.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
Vertical temperature stack shows a classic frontal structure with warm, moist air at the surface replaced by a colder, drier continental airmass. Post-frontal soundings indicate a shallow inversion trapping moisture below 850mb.
The surface cold front progresses from the Purchase area at 06z to the Southeast Coalfields by 22z.
Non-diurnal cooling is the primary feature, with daily maximums occurring in the pre-dawn hours for western regions and midday for eastern regions.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
Frontal passage is marked by a sharp wind shift from southwest to northwest and an immediate pressure rise.
The region is positioned in the left exit/right entrance region of a 110kt upper-level jet, providing synoptic-scale lift.
A compact 500mb shortwave trough is pivoting through the Ohio Valley, providing the necessary vorticity for widespread precipitation.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is deeply saturated (RH > 90% up to 600mb) during the morning, with mid-level drying occurring rapidly post-front.
Precipitation is primarily stratiform rain, though terrain-induced lift in the southeast will lead to higher localized intensity.
Hydrologic risk is negligible as storm total rainfall remains below 0.60 inches statewide and ground conditions are not currently saturated to critical levels.
Quiet and Seasonal Conditions Prevail Statewide
Kentucky is in for a calm weather day as high pressure takes control. Aside from some early morning clouds and a few sprinkles in the far southeastern coalfields, most residents will enjoy plenty of sunshine.
Temperatures will be seasonal, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 30s in the north to the mid-40s in the south. Nighttime lows will dip just below freezing, so a light frost is expected by tomorrow morning.
Winds will remain light throughout the day, making for a pleasant mid-February afternoon. No significant weather hazards are expected for travelers.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the ECMWF model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature structure across the state is characterized by a standard adiabatic lapse rate with shallow surface-based radiation inversions in valley locations during the pre-dawn hours. Surface temps range from 30F to 45F.
The freezing line has pushed south of the Kentucky-Tennessee border as the dry continental polar air mass expands across the region.
The diurnal curve is highly standard for a clear February day, with rapid heating following sunrise and efficient cooling after sunset due to low dewpoints.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
A weak secondary cold front passed through the southeast Coalfields between 00Z and 06Z, evidenced by a slight wind shift and a drop in low-level relative humidity.
The state is positioned under a zonal flow regime with moderate jet support to the north, providing large-scale subsidence.
Vorticity levels are neutral to slightly negative as a weak shortwave trough pivots east of the Appalachians.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is largely undersaturated. Dewpoint depressions of 15-20F in the mid-levels indicate a strong 'Virga' risk if any moisture were present aloft.
Precipitation is non-existent for 90% of the state; any lingering moisture in the southeast will manifest as light stratiform drizzle or mist.
No hydrologic concerns as ground conditions remain stable and precipitation totals are near zero.