This is the GFS model's output only
You're viewing raw atmospheric data from the GFS (Global Forecast System). This is just one model's interpretation and it may disagree with the other models.
Our AI uses this data (along with other models) to create the final forecast. Don't treat this as the definitive answer.
View the Synthesized Forecast InsteadBreezy and Exceptionally Warm with Scattered Northern Showers
Kentucky will experience a taste of early summer this Thursday. Temperatures across the state will soar into the upper 70s and even the lower 80s in the west. It will be a windy day, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph at times, so make sure any loose outdoor items are secured.
While most of the state will enjoy plenty of sunshine, those in Louisville, Covington, and Ashland should keep an umbrella handy. Light rain showers are expected on and off through the first half of the day. These won't be washouts, but they will be enough to dampen the pavement. No severe weather or thunderstorms are expected due to a lack of atmospheric fuel.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The atmosphere is characterized by a high-amplitude thermal ridge. 850mb temperatures are averaging +12C to +14C across the state, which is nearly 2 standard deviations above the climatological mean for late March.
The main baroclinic zone is located well to the north, roughly from Central Illinois through Northern Ohio.
The trend is primarily diurnal, though Northern Kentucky will see a slightly non-linear rise in the morning due to cloud cover and evaporative cooling from light rain.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No significant frontal passage. A weak surface trough will wash out across the Ohio River by late afternoon.
Kentucky is located in the right-exit region of an intensifying 110kt upper-level jet, which provides broad synoptic lift, though the lack of deep moisture limits the precip response.
Vorticity is generally low to moderate. The strongest pulse (0.00015) is focused over the northern border during the morning hours.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The moisture profile is 'top-down' challenged. Significant dry air exists between 850mb and 700mb in the southern half of the state, leading to a high risk of virga.
Precipitation will be stratiform and light, mainly manifesting as drizzle or very light rain in the northern tier.
Hydrologic conditions are stable. No flooding is anticipated due to the trace amounts of QPF forecast.
Winter Physics
Cold-season microphysics. This analyzes how snowflakes form, what type of crystals to expect, and whether roads will be warm enough to prevent accumulation.
N/A - Entire column is well above freezing.
N/A
Sharp Cold Front Brings Gusty Winds and Widespread Rain
Kentucky will experience a tale of two seasons this Friday. The day begins with very warm temperatures in the mid-60s, but a strong cold front will move through, causing temperatures to tumble throughout the afternoon and evening.
Expect widespread rain to accompany the front, especially across the northern and eastern parts of the state where over an inch of rain is possible. Breezy conditions will be present early in the day, with wind gusts over 40 mph at times before the rain arrives.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
A classic non-diurnal frontal curve. Massive 850mb cooling following a lead 700mb shortwave. Surface temperatures begin in the mid-60s due to strong warm-sector mixing and drop into the 40s and upper 30s.
The surface cold front initiates in Northwest KY at 09z and exits Southeast KY by 22z.
Non-diurnal. Peak temperatures occur between 00z and 09z across the state, with a steady decline thereafter.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
Strong wind shift from SW to NW with significant magnitude (gusts 35-43mph) marking the boundary passage.
Kentucky sits in the right-exit region of a 100kt 250mb jet streak, providing adequate synoptic lift for widespread stratiform rain.
Vorticity is maximized along the Ohio River (98-732 units), indicating the strongest vertical motion is concentrated in the northern half of the state.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Atmospheric column is deeply saturated (RH > 90% through 500mb) during the peak precipitation windows.
Stratiform rain with occasional convective elements along the immediate frontal boundary, though CAPE is negligible.
Soil moisture is moderate; 1-inch rainfall totals in Northeast KY are unlikely to cause major flooding but will cause typical ponding in low-lying areas.
Breezy Morning Gives Way to a Pleasant Spring Saturday
It is going to be a beautiful but crisp day across Kentucky. We will start the morning with a bit of a chill and some gusty winds, especially in Western and Central Kentucky where gusts could reach 25-30 mph early on.
By the afternoon, the winds will settle down, and we'll see plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will climb into the 50s for most of the state, making for a perfect day for outdoor activities, though you might still want a light jacket.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack is characterized by post-frontal drying and a standard adiabatic lapse rate during peak heating hours. No significant warm noses or inversions are present at 850mb.
The freezing line has pushed well south of the Tennessee border at the surface by 15z.
Standard diurnal curve with strong radiational cooling potential late in the period as the high pressure center aligns over the region.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
The cold front cleared the SE coalfields prior to 06z, evidenced by the sharp dewpoint drop and northwesterly wind shift.
The region is under the influence of the right entrance region of a 110kt upper-level jet, which is providing broad synoptic-scale subsidence across the Commonwealth.
Broad cyclonic flow aloft is departing, replaced by a low-amplitude ridge from the west.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is deeply unsaturated. Dewpoint depressions of 15-25F are prevalent through the mid-levels, eliminating any risk of precipitation or significant cloud cover.
None
Hydrologic conditions are stable with no precipitation forecast.
Spring Warmth Returns with Gusty Afternoon Breezes
Kentucky is in for a beautiful stretch of weather this Sunday. After a crisp morning, temperatures will rebound quickly into the low-to-mid 60s for most areas under plenty of sunshine. It will be a bit breezy, so keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans.
By late evening, clouds will increase across the northern part of the state near the Ohio River. While most of us will stay dry, a few stray raindrops are possible near Covington and Florence before midnight.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack shows a classic warming profile with a surface-based inversion breaking early in the day. 850mb temperatures climb to +8C by afternoon.
The freezing line remains well north in the Great Lakes region, retreating further as ridging builds.
Standard diurnal curve for most; Northern KY will see non-diurnal steadying of temperatures late evening due to cloud cover and rain.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No major fronts; a weak surface trough enters Northern KY late Sunday evening around 2000.
The Jet stream is largely zonal over Kentucky, but the right entrance region of a northern stream jet streak provides lift for NKY late.
Neutral vorticity for most of the state; a compact shortwave trough grazes the Ohio River after 2000.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The column is mostly dry. A risk of virga exists in NKY as rain begins because dewpoint depressions are initially 15F+ at the surface.
Precipitation in NKY will be stratiform and light.
The ground is dry and the precipitation amounts are negligible; no flooding risk.
Breezy and Warm West; Light Showers North and East
Kentucky will see a tale of two weather patterns on March 30th. For those in Western and South-Central Kentucky, it will be a pleasant but windy day with highs reaching into the low 70s and plenty of sunshine. You may want to secure loose outdoor items as wind gusts could reach up to 35 mph at times.
In contrast, Northern and Eastern Kentucky will deal with more clouds and periods of light rain. These showers won't be heavy, but they will be persistent enough to require an umbrella. Temperatures in these regions will be cooler, staying in the 50s and 60s throughout the day.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
Standard atmospheric profile across the state, though a weak low-level inversion exists in the Eastern Coalfields due to overnight radiational cooling. Low-level warm air advection (WAA) is dominant in the west.
The frontal boundary is stalled near the Ohio River (along a line from Louisville to Covington).
Mostly diurnal, though the northern regions exhibit a flattened curve due to cloud cover and light precipitation.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
A weak cold front moves into Northern and Central Kentucky between 18:00 and 00:00, marked by a slight wind shift from SW to W.
The region is under the influence of the right entrance region of a 100kt upper-level jet, providing modest synoptic-scale lift for the northern half of the state.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the Ohio Valley, with vorticity peaking around 09:00 UTC in the north.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Northern Kentucky is saturated through 700mb; however, South-Central Kentucky exhibits large dewpoint depressions (>15F), creating a high risk of virga.
Predominantly stratiform light rain and drizzle; convective elements are absent due to near-zero CAPE.
Hydrologic risk is non-existent as QPF remains below 0.10 inches statewide.