This is the GFS model's output only
You're viewing raw atmospheric data from the GFS (Global Forecast System). This is just one model's interpretation and it may disagree with the other models.
Our AI uses this data (along with other models) to create the final forecast. Don't treat this as the definitive answer.
View the Synthesized Forecast InsteadRain West and South; Dry North and Central
Residents in Western and Southern Kentucky should prepare for a wet day as a slow-moving weather system brings steady rain. The heaviest rainfall is expected in the far western Purchase area, where nearly an inch of rain could fall by the end of the day.
In contrast, the Louisville area, Northern Kentucky, and parts of the Inner Bluegrass will remain mostly dry. While it will be humid and occasionally cloudy, the significant rain will likely stay to your south and west, making it a good day for outdoor activities in those specific regions.
Temperatures across the state will remain warm and summer-like, with most areas reaching the mid-80s. Even with the rain, the lack of strong cold air behind the system means the humidity will persist throughout the evening.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack is characterized by a standard adiabatic lapse rate with no inversions present. Surface temperatures are comfortably in the 70s and 80s, well above the freezing level which is currently located above 13,000 feet.
A weak moisture boundary is currently stalled along a line from Murray to Somerset, separating the deeper moisture to the south from the drier air near the Ohio River.
The diurnal curve is typical for July, though muted in Western Kentucky due to 80-100% cloud cover. No non-diurnal temperature drops are expected.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No formal frontal passage is occurring; the weather is driven by a broad trough of low pressure and embedded shortwave energy.
The jet stream is providing minimal support, with zonal flow aloft over the Ohio Valley and a weak subtropical branch over the Deep South.
A series of weak shortwave troughs are pivoting through the region, evidenced by vorticity peaks between 0.00009 and 0.00011 in the GFS data.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is saturated in the west and south. However, a significant dry slot is observed in the 850-700mb layer across North-Central Kentucky, increasing the risk of 'Virga' in Louisville and Northern Kentucky.
Precipitation is primarily stratiform (steady) with some localized convective bursts, though the lack of instability (0 CAPE) will prevent lightning.
The ground is currently within normal saturation limits; rainfall totals of 0.5 to 0.8 inches are expected to be absorbed without hydrologic issues.
Scattered Afternoon Showers West; Sunny and Humid East
Expect a warm and humid Monday across Kentucky. For those in the western half of the state, including Paducah and Bowling Green, you will likely encounter scattered rain showers or a quick thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. These showers will be hit-or-miss, so keep an umbrella handy but don't cancel outdoor plans.
In contrast, Northern and Eastern Kentucky, including cities like Covington and Ashland, will enjoy a mostly sunny day with virtually no chance of rain. Temperatures across the state will be quite high, reaching the upper 80s and low 90s, making it feel every bit like a July day. Winds will remain light, providing little relief from the humidity.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack reveals a classic summer pattern with a well-mixed boundary layer up to 800mb. Surface temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s coupled with dewpoints in the low 70s (west) and mid 60s (east) create a standard adiabatic lapse rate with moderate instability available, although CAPE is under-forecast by the GFS core.
The thermal boundary (freezing line) is located far above the 500mb level, well out of reach for any wintry concerns. No surface fronts are present.
Diurnal curve is dominant across all 12 regions. Minimal radiational cooling is expected in western regions due to cloud cover, while eastern valleys will drop into the low 60s.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage occurred. Wind shifts are negligible, with flow remaining light from the southwest/west across the state.
The jet stream is providing moderate support, with Kentucky situated in the right entrance region of a 90kt streak at 250mb, aiding in broad-scale divergence over the western half of the state.
Vorticity analysis shows a compact mid-level shortwave trough (0.0001 s⁻¹) drifting through the Mid-Mississippi Valley, providing the lift trigger for western Kentucky's rain chances.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is saturated in the 850mb to 700mb layer across the Purchase and Pennyrile regions. East of the I-75 corridor, large dewpoint depressions (15-20F) introduce a significant 'Virga' risk if any light rain attempts to develop.
Precipitation will be predominantly convective in the afternoon, appearing as disorganized showers and pulse thunderstorms. Morning precipitation in the far west will be more stratiform in nature.
Ground saturation is low. Given the light liquid totals (max 0.21in), no hydrologic or flooding concerns exist.
Widespread Summer Rain Across Kentucky
Expect a damp day across most of Kentucky this Tuesday. While the day may start dry in some Western regions, rain chances will increase significantly as we move into the afternoon and evening hours.
Most areas can expect between a quarter and nearly a full inch of rain. No wintry weather is expected as temperatures will stay well into the 70s and 80s, even during the heaviest downpours. Outdoor plans for the late afternoon and evening should have a backup indoor option.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack follows a standard moist adiabatic lapse rate across the state. No significant thermal inversions are noted; however, rain-cooled air at the surface will lead to stable boundary layers in regions seeing prolonged precipitation.
The freezing line remains well north of the Ohio River, outside the region of interest.
The diurnal curve is significantly suppressed across Central and Northern Kentucky due to cloud cover and rain. Northern Kentucky will experience a non-diurnal trend with temperatures falling through the afternoon.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No distinct surface frontal passage is identified in the GFS wind fields; however, a subtle wind shift from SW to W occurs as the shortwave axis passes.
The right entrance region of a 100kt jet streak over the Great Lakes provides broad synoptic lift across the Ohio Valley.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the region, with peak vorticity focused over Northeast Kentucky (0.00021 s-1).
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is deeply saturated. Minimal virga risk exists due to narrow dewpoint depressions throughout the troposphere.
Predominantly stratiform rainfall with embedded convective bursts, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.
While ground saturation is currently moderate, the training of convective elements over the Bluegrass and Foothills could lead to localized hydrologic concerns.
Morning Rain Gives Way to Afternoon Sunshine
Keep the umbrella handy as you head out the door! Most of Kentucky will see a period of rain showers during the late night and early morning hours. This rain is expected to be steady but should not cause significant flooding concerns.
The good news is that the rain will move out quickly. By lunchtime, western Kentucky will see clearing skies, and this sunshine will spread across the rest of the state through the afternoon. High temperatures will settle into the low-to-mid 80s, making for a pleasant summer day once the clouds break.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature profile is typical of a mid-summer rain event. Sfc temps in the 60s/70s during the precipitation event transition to a well-mixed boundary layer by afternoon as solar insolation increases.
Freezing line is well north of the Great Lakes; no winter concerns for Kentucky.
Non-diurnal steady temperatures expected overnight due to dense cloud cover and moist advection, followed by a standard diurnal rise once clearing commences after 15z.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
Surface cold front is expected to cross the Ohio River around 06z and exit the Southeast Coalfields by 14z, evidenced by a subtle wind shift to the NW and clearing skies.
The region is positioned in the right entrance region of a 90-100kt jet streak, providing adequate large-scale ascent to support widespread rain.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the zonal flow, with the vorticity maximum tracking across Central Kentucky between 06z and 12z.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Atmospheric column is saturated below 600mb during the early morning. Large dewpoint depressions in Northern KY suggest a risk of sub-cloud evaporation (Virga) where precipitation totals will remain trace.
Predominantly stratiform rainfall. The lack of CAPE and low EL (Equilibrium Level) heights will suppress convective development and lightning.
Hydrologic concerns are negligible as rainfall totals will stay below 0.50" in most locations, well within the infiltration capacity of summer soils.
Abundant Sunshine and Seasonable Warmth Across Kentucky
Expect a picture-perfect summer day across the state. Whether you are in Paducah or Pikeville, you will see blue skies from sunrise to sunset. Temperatures will be quite comfortable for late July, peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Light breezes and low humidity will make for pleasant outdoor conditions. There is no threat of rain or storms today, so no umbrellas are needed. Evenings will cool down nicely into the 50s and 60s.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack reveals a classic summer high-pressure profile. A strong radiation inversion will exist in the lowest 500m overnight, particularly in valley locations, followed by a well-mixed boundary layer up to roughly 800mb during peak heating.
Thermal boundary is nonexistent as a single stable airmass encompasses the entire region.
Purely diurnal curve. Radiational cooling will be highly efficient overnight due to clear skies and light winds, while solar insolation will drive temperatures up quickly following sunrise.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage. Stability is maintained by a 1024mb surface high centered over the Ohio Valley.
The jet stream is in a moderate zonal configuration to the north, providing no significant synoptic-scale lift for the Commonwealth.
Broad cyclonic flow aloft is noted in GFS vorticity fields, but the magnitude is weak and the environment is too dry for convective activation.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is significantly undersaturated. PWAT values are forecasted at 0.7-0.9 inches, which is well below the threshold for convective precipitation in July.
None. Sky cover remains near 0% for the duration of the period.
Hydrologic conditions are stable with no precipitation-related risks.