This is the GFS model's output only
You're viewing raw atmospheric data from the GFS (Global Forecast System). This is just one model's interpretation and it may disagree with the other models.
Our AI uses this data (along with other models) to create the final forecast. Don't treat this as the definitive answer.
View the Synthesized Forecast InsteadWinter Precipitation Returns to Eastern Kentucky
A weather system will move across the Commonwealth on February 6th, bringing a split in conditions. While Western Kentucky remains dry and breezy with highs near 50, Central and Eastern Kentucky will see a transition to winter weather by the afternoon.
Expect light snow to develop across Northern and Northeast Kentucky by midday, continuing into the evening. Total accumulations will generally stay below 2 inches, but slick spots on bridges and overpasses are likely as temperatures drop below freezing after sunset.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
A classic winter scenario featuring a surface cold air mass (below 32F in the north) being overrun by moisture as a shortwave trough moves in. An inversion exists at 850mb in the central regions.
The freezing line is roughly along the Cumberland Parkway at 18Z.
Non-diurnal cooling in the east as precipitation starts.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
Cold front clearing the state by 03Z Feb 7th.
The jet stream (110kts) is providing upper-level divergence in the right entrance region.
Compact shortwave trough with high absolute vorticity peaking in the east.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Generally saturated below 500mb.
Stratiform rain/snow transition.
No flood risk; soil is receptive to current liquid rates.
Winter Physics
Cold-season microphysics. This analyzes how snowflakes form, what type of crystals to expect, and whether roads will be warm enough to prevent accumulation.
Deep freezing layer in the north; 1000ft melt layer in the south.
Moderate dendritic growth in the north; rimmed wet snow in the south.
Road impacts mostly confined to Northern and Northeast KY where ground temps are lower.
Arctic Blast and Lingering Flurries
The main story for today is the arrival of bitter arctic air. While the sun will try to peek out across western and central Kentucky, it won't do much to help the temperatures, which will stay well below freezing for most of the day. Wind chills will be particularly harsh, feeling like the single digits or even below zero in some areas.
In the eastern half of the state, some light snow will continue through the morning hours before tapering off. Don't expect much in the way of major accumulation, but a light dusting could make for some slick spots on the roads. By the afternoon, most of the state will be dry but very cold.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack reveals a deep, dry arctic airmass. A shallow surface-based inversion is likely in the morning, with temperatures at 850mb averaging -14C to -18C across the state, which is nearly 2 standard deviations below normal for this time of year.
The main freezing line and arctic boundary have pushed well into the Deep South, currently located over northern Alabama and Georgia.
The temperature trend is non-diurnal for most of the morning, with temperatures falling or remaining steady despite sunrise due to the strength of the cold air advection (CAA).
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
The primary front passed 12-18 hours prior. Evidence includes a sharp northwesterly wind shift and a precipitous drop in dewpoints (now in the single digits or negatives).
The Jet Stream is positioned to the south, putting Kentucky in the right entrance region, which usually favors subsidence, although lingering energy in the trough is still providing enough lift in the east for light precipitation.
A compact shortwave trough is currently pivoting through the eastern third of the state and will exit into the Appalachians by 18z.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is largely dry (precipitable water values < 0.2 inches). The only saturation present is in the 850-700mb layer in the eastern regions.
Precipitation is stratiform and light, taking the form of high-ratio snow flurries as the saturation layer intersects the -12C to -18C Dendritic Growth Zone.
Zero hydrologic risk. Soils are frozen at the surface.
Winter Physics
Cold-season microphysics. This analyzes how snowflakes form, what type of crystals to expect, and whether roads will be warm enough to prevent accumulation.
There is no 'Warm Nose' present; the entire column is well below freezing, ensuring a 100% snow profile for any falling precipitation.
Snow quality will be 'Powder/Fluff' (Dendritic) with ratios expected to reach 15:1 or higher due to the extremely cold temperatures in the cloud layer.
Any moisture will flash-freeze on contact with road surfaces. Even light accumulations will result in immediate slickness because road temperatures are well below the freezing point.
Frigid Start with a Western Warm-Up
It will be a day of two different Kentuckys. If you are in the west, including Paducah and Hopkinsville, you can expect a decent warm-up with plenty of sunshine pushing temperatures into the upper 40s and even low 50s.
However, for those in Northern and Eastern Kentucky, the cold air is going to be much harder to shake. Temperatures will start in the single digits in some areas and struggle to get above freezing all afternoon. Make sure to bundle up if you are heading out in Lexington or Covington, as wind chills will stay quite low throughout the day.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The state is currently under the influence of a modified arctic air mass. A strong surface-based inversion is expected across the central and eastern regions during the morning hours, with temperatures at 850mb being 5-10C warmer than the surface.
The primary thermal boundary is the retreating edge of the arctic high, which is currently clearing western Kentucky but remains stalled across the Bluegrass and Eastern Coalfields.
Diurnal warming will be efficient in the west due to southwesterly return flow, whereas the east will exhibit a slow diurnal rise as it remains on the cold side of the high pressure center.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
None. The region is in a post-frontal environment with high pressure building from the west.
Zonal flow at 300mb with the jet streak located well to the north, providing no significant synoptic lift.
Neutral vorticity field; no significant shortwaves are identified in the water vapor imagery or GFS forecast for this period.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Extremely dry column. Dewpoint depressions are forecast to be 20-30 degrees in most areas, eliminating any risk of precipitation (including virga).
None. The atmosphere is currently too dry to support any hydrometeors.
Hydrologic conditions are stable with no precipitation expected.
Dry and Sunny with a Sharp North-South Temperature Gradient
Residents can expect a beautiful, albeit somewhat chilly, winter day across Kentucky. Skies will remain mostly sunny from sunrise through the afternoon for the majority of the state. If you are in the Purchase area near Paducah, it will feel almost like spring with temperatures reaching the low 60s. However, if you are in Northern Kentucky or the Ashland area, you'll need to keep the heavier coats handy as highs will barely crack the upper 30s.
By Monday evening, some clouds will begin to drift into the northern and eastern parts of the state, but no rain or snow is expected. Winds will be relatively light, though a few gusts up to 15-20 mph are possible in the central Bluegrass and mountain regions during the afternoon. Overall, it is an excellent day for outdoor activities as long as you dress for your specific region's temperature.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack shows a classic winter high-pressure profile with strong radiational cooling and surface inversions present at 12Z, particularly in the eastern valleys. By 18Z, the boundary layer becomes well-mixed across the southern and western regions.
The 0C/32F freezing line at 850mb is located along the Ohio River, while the surface freezing line retreats into Central Ohio by the afternoon.
Standard diurnal temperature curve with rapid morning warming under clear skies. Temperatures will peak around 21Z-22Z.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage is expected during this period. The surface wind shift is negligible, staying primarily out of the southwest.
Kentucky sits under the right exit region of a 110kt jet streak centered over Quebec, providing weak subsidence (downward motion) which suppresses cloud formation.
Broad cyclonic flow exists to the north, but Kentucky remains in a low-vorticity environment with neutral height tendencies.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is significantly undersaturated. GFS soundings show dewpoint depressions of 15-25F from the surface up to 400mb, ensuring a dry day.
None. Stratiform cloudiness is expected to increase in the far north/northeast late in the day, but it will be non-precipitating.
No hydrologic concerns as the state remains dry with low river levels.
Mild Afternoon Warm-Up Before Evening Rain Showers
Kentucky will enjoy a noticeable warm-up today as southerly winds push temperatures into the 50s and 60s by the afternoon. It will be a pleasant day for outdoor activities through most of the daylight hours.
However, changes arrive this evening. A cold front will bring light rain showers starting in the west around sunset and moving into Central and Northern Kentucky late tonight. Most areas will see less than a quarter-inch of rain, making this more of a nuisance than a major weather event.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GFS model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
Atmospheric column is characterized by robust warm-air advection (WAA) in the 925-850mb layer, scouring out morning valley inversions and allowing surface temperatures to overachieve climatological norms.
The freezing line remains well north of the Ohio River; the primary thermal boundary is the cold front, which enters Western KY by 21z and progresses toward Central KY by 04z.
Generally diurnal warming through 20z, followed by an isothermal or slightly falling trend during the evening as clouds and rain arrive. Non-diurnal drops are expected only behind the front late tonight.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
A weak surface cold front will cross the state, marked by a veer in wind direction from 190 to 260 degrees and gusts peaking between 25 and 34 mph.
Kentucky lies in the right-entrance region of a 110kt jet streak over the Great Lakes, providing broad synoptic-scale lift.
A compact shortwave trough in the mid-levels is the primary driver of the evening precipitation, with vorticity peaking at 00z across Central Kentucky.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Low-level saturation (below 700mb) occurs rapidly between 18z and 00z from west to east; however, significant dewpoint depressions (>15F) in the East will lead to virga and trace totals.
Stratiform light rain showers with no convective elements due to 0 CAPE values.
Zero flooding risk; rainfall totals are below 0.25 inches across all regions and soil moisture capacity is sufficient.