This is the NAM model's output only
You're viewing raw atmospheric data from the NAM 3km Nest (North American Mesoscale - High Resolution Nest). This is just one model's interpretation and it may disagree with the other models.
Our AI uses this data (along with other models) to create the final forecast. Don't treat this as the definitive answer.
View the Synthesized Forecast InsteadWindy and Warm with Northern Rain Showers
Kentucky is in for a very warm but windy Thursday. Temperatures will feel more like May than March, with most of the state climbing into the upper 70s or low 80s. You will definitely notice the wind, with gusts between 30 and 45 mph possible throughout the afternoon and evening, so be sure to secure any loose outdoor items.
While most of Southern and Western Kentucky will stay dry and see plenty of sunshine, those in Northern Kentucky and the Lexington area should keep an umbrella handy. A quick-moving weather system will bring rain to the northern half of the state, primarily during the morning and early afternoon. The heaviest rain will be concentrated near the Ohio River in Northern Kentucky, while areas further south will only see light, brief showers.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the NAM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack is characterized by strong warm air advection (WAA) in the low-to-mid levels, with 850mb temperatures between +12C and +14C across the state. No inversions are present during the daylight hours, allowing for deep mixing and the transport of higher momentum air to the surface.
The thermal boundary and freezing line are located well north of the Great Lakes and Southern Ontario, leaving all of Kentucky in the warm sector.
The diurnal curve is typical for a warm sector airmass, though morning lows will be elevated (50s/60s) due to mechanical mixing from the overnight low-level jet.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
A weak surface trough is propped to move through Central Kentucky between 15z and 18z, evidenced by a slight wind shift from SW to WSW and a temporary increase in cloud cover.
The region is positioned in the right entrance region of a departing 110kt H250 jet, providing large-scale divergence and lift for the morning rain in Northern KY.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the Ohio Valley, with a vorticity max concentrated near the I-75/I-71 junction.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The column is saturated in Northern Kentucky (PWATs ~1.1"), but significant dewpoint depressions (>15F) in Western and Southern Kentucky indicate a high virga risk for any light echoes.
Precipitation will be predominantly stratiform with embedded convective elements in the morning (Northern KY) and light, scattered showers/drizzle in the afternoon (Central KY).
Hydrologic risk is low as the ground is relatively dry and the duration of heavy rain is limited to a 3-4 hour window.
Windy Frontal Passage Brings Crashing Temperatures
Kentucky will experience a dramatic shift in weather today as a strong cold front moves from west to east. We are starting the day with temperatures in the 60s, but don't let that fool you—readings will fall steadily through the afternoon and evening, ending up in the 40s for most of the state by sunset.
Expect a period of rain as the front passes, primarily during the morning and midday hours. The most noticeable impact, however, will be the wind. Gusts between 35 and 45 mph are possible, especially during the early morning hours, which could blow around unsecured outdoor items or make high-profile vehicle travel difficult.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the NAM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack is characterized by a significant non-diurnal trend. A standard adiabatic lapse rate in the warm sector is replaced by a low-level inversion as cold air undercuts the departing moisture.
The freezing line remains well north of the Ohio River, but the primary thermal boundary (Cold Front) will push east of I-75 by 21Z.
Non-diurnal. Temperatures peak between 00Z and 06Z in the west and 12Z in the east before crashing.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
Frontal passage is confirmed by a 45-degree wind shift from SW to NW and a sudden 15-20 degree temperature drop within 3 hours.
The Right Entrance Region of a 110kt upper-level jet provides significant synoptic lift for the rain shield.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the Ohio Valley, with the primary vorticity lobe crossing Central KY between 09Z and 15Z.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is deeply saturated from 850mb to 400mb. Minimal virga risk as dewpoint depressions are <5F during the precip event.
Predominantly stratiform rain with localized convective bursts near the frontal boundary.
Ground is capable of absorbing the forecast 0.10-0.25 inches of rain; no hydrologic concerns exist.
Sunny Skies and Chilly Breezes Following Frontal Passage
Kentucky will see a bright and dry day for March 28th. The early morning will be quite cold, with most of the state waking up to temperatures in the 20s or low 30s. You will definitely want a heavy coat if you are heading out early.
As the day progresses, the sun will be out in full force, but it won't do much to move the mercury quickly. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the 50s in most spots, remaining in the 40s for the eastern half of the state. A light breeze will keep a slight chill in the air all afternoon.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the NAM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
A dry continental airmass is characterized by a standard adiabatic lapse rate through the lower troposphere. Soundings indicate a very sharp dewpoint depression from the surface to 500mb.
The 0C isotherm at the surface has been pushed well south into Tennessee and the Deep South.
Strong diurnal curve with radiational cooling maximized before dawn, followed by a solar-driven rebound. Thermal advection is neutral by afternoon.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
Cold front cleared the state between 00Z and 06Z, marked by a sharp shift from SW to NW winds.
No jet support; Kentucky is currently in a region of high-level convergence/subsidence.
A broad, low-amplitude shortwave trough is exiting to the east, leaving the state under stable high-pressure influence.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Atmospheric column is remarkably dry; PWATs are near the 10th percentile for late March.
None.
None; ground is expected to continue drying.