This is the NAM model's output only
You're viewing raw atmospheric data from the NAM 3km Nest (North American Mesoscale - High Resolution Nest). This is just one model's interpretation and it may disagree with the other models.
Our AI uses this data (along with other models) to create the final forecast. Don't treat this as the definitive answer.
View the Synthesized Forecast InsteadSoaking Rain West and Central; Humid Elsewhere
Kentucky will see a split in weather conditions for July 19th. Those in the Western and Central portions of the state should prepare for multiple rounds of rain showers. A significant morning wave will move through the Paducah and Owensboro areas, while another round is expected to develop across the Lincoln Trail and Bluegrass regions by the evening.
Eastern Kentucky and the Northern Kentucky river cities will largely remain dry but very humid. Temperatures across the state will rise into the mid-to-upper 80s, though areas seeing persistent rainfall will likely stay in the 70s through much of the morning and early afternoon.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the NAM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature profile is characterized by a moist adiabatic lapse rate with no significant inversions aloft. Freezing levels are situated well above the 700mb level.
The entire state is entrenched in a warm, moist maritime tropical (mT) air mass; no distinct freezing line exists within the troposphere.
The diurnal curve will be suppressed in Western/Central KY due to significant cloud cover and precipitation. Non-diurnal temperature trends are possible where heavy rain persists during the morning.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No surface frontal passage is noted. The system is driven by a series of weak mid-level shortwave troughs ripples within a broader cyclonic flow.
The right entrance region of a 300mb jet provides large-scale divergence and lift over the Purchase and Lincoln Trail regions.
Moderate vorticity pulses are expected to move through the state in waves, with the strongest peak (0.0007) occurring in Central Kentucky during the late afternoon.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is deeply saturated (RH > 90%) from the surface to 500mb in Western Kentucky, while Eastern Kentucky remains dry aloft.
Precipitation will be primarily stratiform with convective elements embedded, particularly in areas of higher terrain where orographic enhancement occurs.
The ground is not currently saturated, but high rainfall rates (1.5in+) in the Western regions could lead to localized urban drainage issues.
Tropical Downpours in the Southeast; Typical Summer Warmth Elsewhere
Most Kentuckians can expect a standard summer day this July 20th, with temperatures climbing into the mid-80s. While most areas will stay dry, those in the western and southern parts of the state may see some light morning sprinkles.
The main weather story focuses on the Southeast Coalfields, where heavy rain is expected during the afternoon. Some areas could see nearly 2 inches of rainfall in a short period, which may cause localized drainage issues or minor flooding in low-lying spots. Stay weather aware if you are traveling through the mountains.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the NAM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
Kentucky resides within a tropical airmass with freezing levels situated above 14,000 feet. No thermal inversions are present.
The primary moisture boundary is focused over the Appalachian foothills of Southeast Kentucky.
Diurnal curves are generally standard, with the exception of the Southeast Coalfields and Lincoln Trail where cloud cover and precipitation will induce slight cooling during the afternoon.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No synoptic frontal passage. Localized wind shifts are likely near convective outflows in the Southeast.
Moderate zonal flow at 250mb providing general synoptic lift.
Multiple weak shortwave troughs are embedded in the flow, with the most impactful one triggering heavy rain in the mountains.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Deep tropospheric saturation is isolated to the Southeast; elsewhere, the mid-levels remain relatively dry with dewpoint depressions exceeding 15F in Northeast KY.
Convective heavy rain in the Southeast; light stratiform rain in the Western/Southern Pennyrile.
Flash flooding is a localized concern in the Southeast Coalfields due to high rain rates exceeding 1 inch per hour during peak afternoon heating.
Scattered Showers Focus on Central and Eastern Kentucky
Kentucky will see a split in weather conditions for July 21st. Residents in Western Kentucky, including Paducah and Owensboro, can expect a dry but increasingly cloudy day with temperatures reaching the mid-to-upper 80s.
Further east, a series of light rain showers will move through. The steadiest rain is expected around Lake Cumberland and the Southeastern Coalfields. While no severe weather is expected, it will be a damp day for many in the central and eastern parts of the state.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler where the rain persists, staying in the upper 70s to low 80s, while humidity remains high statewide.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the NAM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The atmosphere across Kentucky shows a saturated boundary layer in the east and a drier, more stable profile in the west. Freezing levels are exceptionally high, near 15,000ft, precluding any wintry precipitation.
No distinct surface thermal boundary exists; however, a moisture gradient is stalled along a line from Louisville to Bowling Green.
A muted diurnal curve is expected across the eastern half of the state due to persistent cloud cover and light precipitation. Western Kentucky will experience a standard diurnal heating cycle reaching the upper 80s.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage is observed. The weather is driven by a series of weak mid-level shortwaves within a broad cyclonic flow regime.
Moderate jet stream support (100kts at 250mb) is providing some synoptic-scale lift via the Right Entrance Region over the Lake Cumberland area.
Low-amplitude vorticity maxima are pivoting through the region, with the strongest energy concentrated over the southeastern quadrant between 06z and 15z.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is saturated in the 1000-700mb layer across Eastern KY. In Central KY, a significant spread between the surface and 850mb (approx 15F) suggests a risk of virga/evaporation.
Precipitation will be almost entirely stratiform in nature. Lack of CAPE and weak lapse rates will prevent convective development or thunder.
Hydrologic concerns are minimal given the low rainfall rates, though the Lake Cumberland region may see minor ponding with localized totals near 1 inch.