This is the GEM model's output only
You're viewing raw atmospheric data from the GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale Model (CMC)). This is just one model's interpretation and it may disagree with the other models.
Our AI uses this data (along with other models) to create the final forecast. Don't treat this as the definitive answer.
View the Synthesized Forecast InsteadUnseasonable Warmth and Gusty Winds Dominate
Kentucky is in for a taste of early summer this Thursday. Most of the state will enjoy sunny skies and afternoon highs reaching the low to mid-80s, which is significantly above the average for late March. It will be a perfect day for outdoor activities, though you should be prepared for breezy conditions.
The only fly in the ointment is a very light chance for a few showers in the morning for those near the Ohio River and Northern Kentucky. These will be brief and likely won't result in much more than a few wet windshields before the sun breaks through for the afternoon.
Wind will be a factor everywhere. Expect southwest winds to pick up by midday, with occasional gusts between 30 and 35 mph. These winds will stay active through the evening before settling down late at night.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature profile across the state is characterized by a deep, well-mixed boundary layer (up to ~800-750mb). A strong thermal ridge at 850mb (+15C) is driving the anomalous surface heat.
The effective thermal boundary (freezing line) is situated well north of the Great Lakes, leaving Kentucky in a broad, warm tropical air mass.
Temperature trends are strictly diurnal, with rapid morning heating following the dissipation of any localized shallow inversions or morning clouds in the north.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage occurred. Kentucky is entrenched in the warm sector of a large synoptic system centered over the Central Plains.
A 90-100kt upper-level jet is located to our north. The state is in the right-exit region, which generally promotes subsidence (sinking air) and clear skies, though it is providing the momentum for surface gusts.
The atmosphere is energetically quiet with broad anticyclonic flow and very low relative vorticity values.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is generally dry. Northern Kentucky shows some mid-level saturation (700mb) in the morning, but high dewpoint depressions at the surface (15-20F) will likely result in most rain evaporating before reaching the ground (Virga).
If any precipitation reaches the surface in the north, it will be light and stratiform in nature.
Hydrologic conditions are stable. No precipitation-related flooding is anticipated.
Soggy Morning and Crashing Temperatures
Kentucky residents should prepare for a significant change in weather today. The day starts off unseasonably warm, but a strong cold front will bring rain to the entire state. The heaviest rain will likely occur during the morning hours for western and central areas, including Louisville and Northern Kentucky, before shifting toward the eastern mountains by the afternoon.
As the rain moves through, you will notice a sharp drop in temperature. Many areas will fall from the 70s into the 40s or even 30s by sunset. While no significant snow or ice is expected, the damp conditions and falling temperatures will make for a very chilly evening.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
A classic non-diurnal curve characterized by significant low-level cold air advection following a strong surface cold front.
The frontal boundary begins in far Western KY at 06z and clears the Eastern Coalfields by 22z.
Temperatures crash as much as 40 degrees in 12 hours behind the front.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
Surface front is well-defined by sharp wind shifts from SW to WNW and 20-30mph gusts.
A 110-130kt jet at 250mb provides significant synoptic-scale lift in its left-exit and right-entrance regions.
A compact shortwave trough provides high vorticity values, especially in the Northern and Northeast regions.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Deep layer saturation is present across the state during the morning and afternoon hours.
Primarily stratiform rain with some convective clusters along the leading edge of the front.
Despite the heavy rain in Louisville and Northeast KY, antecedent conditions are dry enough to prevent significant flooding.
A Cold Start Leading to a Bright Spring Afternoon
Kentucky will experience a tale of two seasons this March 28th. Most of the state will wake up to frosty or freezing conditions, so you will want to have the ice scraper ready and perhaps protect any sensitive early spring plants. However, the sun will be out in full force by mid-morning for nearly everyone.
As we move into the afternoon, temperatures will rebound nicely. While it will still feel a bit crisp in the east, western Kentucky will see temperatures climbing into the mid-50s. Winds will be breezy in the morning but will calm down significantly by the evening hours, making for a very pleasant end to the day.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
A strong surface-based radiation inversion is present across most of the state at 09z, with temperatures 5-8 degrees warmer at 850mb than at the surface. This inversion will break rapidly between 14z and 16z as solar insolation increases.
The 32F freezing line encompasses all of Kentucky except the far western Purchase region at 09z, retreating north of the Ohio River by 16z.
Standard diurnal recovery is expected. A non-diurnal drop is noted in the far northeast early as drizzle-cooled air settles before clearing.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
A weak surface trough exited the state to the east between 00z and 06z, evidenced by the shift to northwesterly flow and a sharp drop in dewpoints.
Moderate support from the right entrance region of a 110kt jet streak over the Great Lakes is helping to accelerate the clearing trend in the wake of the trough.
A compact shortwave is currently pivoting through the Appalachian mountains, while broad anti-cyclonic flow is building into western Kentucky.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The column is largely dry. Northeast Kentucky shows saturation only in the lowest 2km (below 800mb), with a significant dewpoint depression aloft leading to a high risk of virga or only trace drizzle.
Precipitation is strictly stratiform and limited to the morning hours in the northeast. Elsewhere, subsidence has completely scoured out moisture.
No hydrologic concerns; ground is unsaturated and QPF is zero across the entire state.
Chilly Start Giving Way to Spring Warmth
Most Kentuckians will wake up to a frost or a light freeze on this March morning, as clear skies and light winds overnight allow temperatures to dip into the low 30s. However, the chill won't last long. As the sun comes up, a southerly breeze will kick in, ushering in much warmer air from the south.
By the afternoon, temperatures will climb into the 60s for most of the state, with areas in Western Kentucky potentially touching 70 degrees. Expect a mix of sun and clouds, with slightly more cloud cover for those living near the Ohio River and in the northeastern parts of the state. It will be a bit breezy at times, especially in South-Central Kentucky, but it remains a great day for outdoor activities.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The state transitions from a radiational cooling-dominated nocturnal profile to a warm-air advection (WAA) profile. A surface-based inversion is expected at 12Z with temperatures ranging from 30-36F, while the 850mb layer sits near 8-10C.
The 0C line at the surface retreats north of the Great Lakes by 18Z.
Strongly diurnal with 30-35 degree swings in the west/central and 25-30 degree swings in the east where cloud cover persists.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage. A surface high moves into the Mid-Atlantic, promoting southerly flow.
The jet stream remains north over the Great Lakes, leaving Kentucky in a region of weak synoptic-scale subsidence.
Vorticity is generally neutral, with only a minor shortwave ripple passing through the Ohio Valley late in the day contributing to cloud cover in the north.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The column is mostly dry. Surface dewpoint depressions will be as high as 30F in the afternoon, precluding any precipitation.
None.
None. Dry antecedent conditions continue.
Mild and Damp Monday for Central and Eastern Kentucky
Expect a tale of two states for your Monday. For those in the Purchase and Western Pennyrile regions, it will be a pleasant, dry day with temperatures reaching into the mid-to-upper 70s under partly cloudy skies. It may feel a bit breezy at times, especially in the morning.
Further east, including Louisville, Lexington, and the mountain regions, umbrellas will be necessary. Light rain showers will develop during the morning and persist off and on through the evening. While no heavy flooding or storms are expected, the damp conditions and overcast skies will keep temperatures slightly cooler, mostly in the 60s.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack shows a classic spring setup with surface temperatures in the 50s-70s and 850mb temperatures remaining well above 0C (averaging 10C). No significant inversions are present, though urban heat islands in Louisville and Lexington will keep boundary layer temperatures elevated overnight.
A weak thermal boundary is stalled just south of the Ohio River, acting as a focus for light precipitation in Northern and Central Kentucky.
Most regions will follow a standard diurnal curve, though heavy cloud cover in Central and Eastern KY will result in a muted temperature range. Western KY will see more efficient heating due to lower cloud fractions.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No distinct cold front passes the state during the 24-hour period; however, a surface trough axis is moving through Central Kentucky during the afternoon.
The state is positioned under a 90-110kt jet streak in the sub-tropical branch, with Northern Kentucky benefiting from left-exit region divergence by Monday evening.
Vorticity is generally weak and broad, though a compact shortwave impulse is forecast to move through the Bluegrass and Southeast Coalfields after 18Z, slightly enhancing precipitation rates.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is saturated from 900mb to 500mb across the eastern half of the state. Western Kentucky remains significantly drier below 700mb, presenting a high risk for virga.
Precipitation will be predominantly stratiform and light. The lack of CAPE (0 J/kg) precludes any convective development or lightning risk.
Hydrologic concerns are zero. Total rainfall across the state is expected to remain below 0.25 inches, and soils are currently in a mid-spring unsaturated state.
Morning Showers Give Way to Afternoon Warmth
Most Kentuckians will wake up to damp conditions on the final day of March as a wave of light rain moves through the state. The most consistent rain will fall during the early morning hours, specifically for areas along and east of I-65.
By lunch time, the rain will have exited to the east, and clouds will begin to break apart. This will set the stage for a very warm and windy afternoon. Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s and lower 80s, making it feel more like May than March. Keep an eye on loose outdoor items, as wind gusts could reach 30 mph at times.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature structure across Kentucky is characterized by a deep warm-core profile. No significant inversions are present at 850mb, with temperatures aloft supportive of purely liquid precipitation despite the date in late March.
A weak pre-frontal trough is oriented NNE to SSW, currently exiting the Bluegrass region by 15z.
Non-diurnal temperature trends are noted in the morning across the East due to thick cloud cover and rain. Rapid warming occurs statewide after 18z as a dry slot moves in.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
Weak trough passage between 06z and 12z indicated by a subtle wind shift from S to SW and a 20-30% drop in relative humidity.
The region sits in the right-entrance region of a 110kt jet streak at 300mb, providing sufficient synoptic lift for the morning rain shield.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the Ohio Valley with a vorticity peak of 0.00009 units across Northern and Northeast Kentucky.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The column is fully saturated below 600mb during the overnight hours. Sub-cloud evaporation (virga) is a risk in the afternoon as dewpoint depressions increase to 15-20F.
Precipitation is primarily stratiform in nature, driven by large-scale isentropic upglide rather than convection.
Hydrologic conditions are stable. Total rainfall amounts are capped at 0.30 inches, which the current ground conditions can easily absorb.
Summer-Like Warmth Arrives Early
Kentucky will experience an exceptionally warm start to April, with temperatures more reminiscent of June. Most of the state will see afternoon highs climbing into the low to mid-80s under sunny skies.
While the weather will be perfect for outdoor activities, it will be breezy at times. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected, especially in the western half of the state. No rain is expected anywhere in the region.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
Deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures following a dry adiabatic lapse rate (9.8 C/km) up to approximately 800mb. The 850mb thermal ridge is exceptionally strong for April 1st.
The freezing line and all significant thermal boundaries are displaced well north into Central Canada.
Strictly diurnal heating curve. Rapid insolation-driven temperature rises expected after 13z across all regions.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage. Kentucky remains in a broad, high-amplitude warm sector for the duration of the period.
The subtropical jet is positioned north of the Ohio River. While no large-scale lift is present, momentum transfer from a 35-45kt low-level jet at 850mb will translate to breezy surface conditions.
The state is under the influence of broad anticyclonic flow aloft with neutral to negative vorticity advection.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is extremely dry. Sounding data suggests PWAT values < 0.50 inches, which is well below the 25th percentile for this date.
None. Absence of forcing and moisture results in zero precip chance.
No hydrologic concerns as soil moisture remains stable under dry conditions.
Gusty Spring Showers Sweep West to East
Kentucky is in for a very warm but breezy day as a spring rain system moves through the state. Temperatures will climb into the 70s and 80s, making it feel more like May than early April, but you will definitely notice the wind, with gusts occasionally reaching 40 mph.
The rain will start in the morning for those in the Purchase and Western Pennyrile regions, gradually moving toward Louisville and the Lake Cumberland area by the afternoon and evening. While no severe weather or snow is expected, keep an umbrella handy for the late-day commute, especially in the eastern half of the state.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The vertical temperature stack is characterized by a deep, well-mixed boundary layer extending to nearly 800mb in the afternoon. No significant inversions are present.
The freezing line is well to the north, near the Great Lakes, while a weak pre-frontal trough is pushing into western Kentucky.
The diurnal curve is typical for a warm-sector airmass, though western regions will see an early plateau due to cloud cover.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No true cold frontal passage occurs during this period; however, a wind shift associated with a pre-frontal trough occurs in the Purchase region around 12Z.
Moderate support from a 110kt upper-level jet, specifically within the right entrance region, providing large-scale ascent over the western half of the state.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the mid-Mississippi Valley, providing the necessary vorticity advection for precipitation.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmospheric column is saturated in the west, but central and eastern Kentucky face a significant 'Virga' risk during the afternoon due to 15-20 degree dewpoint depressions at the surface.
Precipitation is largely stratiform in nature, though gusty winds and high cloud bases in central KY suggest virga and light, high-based showers.
Hydrologic risk is nil as the ground is not saturated and rainfall rates remain below 0.25 inches per hour.