This is the GEM model's output only
You're viewing raw atmospheric data from the GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale Model (CMC)). This is just one model's interpretation and it may disagree with the other models.
Our AI uses this data (along with other models) to create the final forecast. Don't treat this as the definitive answer.
View the Synthesized Forecast InsteadMorning Snow Dusting North; Chilly Rain East
Residents in Northern and Northeast Kentucky should prepare for a light dusting of snow during the Friday morning commute, potentially creating some slick spots on bridges and overpasses. This will quickly turn into a chilly rain by the afternoon as temperatures climb above freezing.
Central Kentucky and the Bluegrass will see mostly rain showers in the afternoon, while the Western part of the state remains dry. If you are in Paducah or Hopkinsville, expect a breezy but much milder day with temperatures reaching the upper 40s or even 50 degrees.
By Friday evening, any remaining moisture in the East may briefly turn back to a few snow flurries as temperatures drop back toward the freezing mark, but no significant impact is expected overnight.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
A complex thermal structure is in place across the Commonwealth. In the West, the boundary layer is well-mixed with a deep warm sector. In the East, a low-level inversion is prominent, with surface temperatures in the teens and twenties while the 850mb layer warms to +4C, creating a classic overrunning/warm-nose setup.
The effective freezing line at the surface is forecast to stall along the I-64 corridor by mid-afternoon, before being pushed back north as a warm front.
Most of the state will experience a non-diurnal temperature trend, with temperatures rising steadily through the afternoon and evening hours as warm air advection (WAA) intensifies.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No distinct cold frontal passage; however, a surface warm front will lift across the state from southwest to northeast during the day.
The region is positioned under the left exit region of a 110kt polar jet streak, providing sufficient synoptic-scale lift for precipitation.
A compact shortwave trough with a vorticity max of 0.0003 s-1 will pivot across the Bluegrass Core during the afternoon, coinciding with the heaviest precipitation rates.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The atmosphere is moisture-starved in the Purchase region but becomes deeply saturated (up to 500mb) across the eastern half of the state. Early morning virga is possible in Central KY before the column fully saturates.
The precipitation will be primarily stratiform, driven by isentropic lift. Convective elements are unlikely given the lack of CAPE (0 J/kg).
Ground is unsaturated; 1-hour FFG is > 1.5 inches. With QPF under 0.25 inches, there is no flooding risk.
Winter Physics
Cold-season microphysics. This analyzes how snowflakes form, what type of crystals to expect, and whether roads will be warm enough to prevent accumulation.
A warm nose (+3C) at 850mb will move over a shallow surface cold layer (approx 950mb) in Northern and Northeast KY. This will facilitate a transition from snow to rain, with a brief window of sleet/freezing rain possible during the flip.
Early morning snow in the North will be standard 10:1 ratio flakes as moisture intersects the lower half of the DGZ. By evening, any snow will be rimmed and wet (5:1) as the DGZ dries out.
Road temperatures are significantly below freezing in the Northeast (17F-22F start). Accumulation on pavement is likely until surface air temperatures exceed 33F.
Arctic Blast and Wintry Mix Transition
A sharp change in the weather is arriving. A cold front is moving through, bringing temperatures down from the 30s into the teens and single digits in some areas. Most of the precipitation will occur early in the day, starting as rain in the south and west before switching to light snow.
The biggest concern for travelers will be the 'flash freeze.' Because temperatures are dropping so quickly, any water remaining on the roads from earlier rain or melted snow could freeze into black ice. Wind chills will also become a factor, feeling like the single digits or even near zero by the afternoon in Northern Kentucky.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
A significant arctic airmass is characterized by a deep, cold isothermal layer near the surface with a standard adiabatic lapse rate aloft. No significant warm nose is observed.
The leading edge of the arctic air moves from the Ohio River at midnight to the Tennessee border by mid-morning.
Strictly non-diurnal temperature curves are expected across the entire state. Temperatures will drop continuously from midnight through the late evening.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
The cold front sweeps from west to east between 00z and 12z, marked by a sharp wind shift from southwesterly to northwesterly and a 10-15 degree temperature drop within three hours.
The state is positioned under a 120-140kt upper-level jet, providing significant large-scale ascent via divergence in the left-exit and right-entrance regions.
A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the broad cyclonic flow, providing the necessary vorticity for light precipitation despite the dry airmass.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The column is mostly saturated in the low to mid-levels (850-500mb). The dry air at the surface in the west will limit accumulation, but saturation in the DGZ in the east will maximize crystal growth.
Mostly stratiform light snow, though some convective bursts are possible near the front in Central Kentucky.
Hydrologic concerns are nil; however, the 'flash freeze' of existing surface moisture is the primary hazard.
Winter Physics
Cold-season microphysics. This analyzes how snowflakes form, what type of crystals to expect, and whether roads will be warm enough to prevent accumulation.
The vertical melt layer disappears quickly after 06z as the 0C isotherm crashes to the surface. Post-frontal snow is assured for all areas east of I-65.
Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) is well-saturated, particularly in Eastern KY, leading to high-quality, fluffy snow crystals.
Sub-freezing road temperatures will lead to immediate accumulation and a high probability of black ice formation as liquid water freezes during the rapid temperature drop.
Frigid Sunrise with Light Snow Dusting Northeast
It is a tale of two states this Sunday. Residents in Northern and Eastern Kentucky will wake up to dangerously cold conditions, with wind chills dipping as low as 5 degrees below zero. Bundle up if you are heading out early, as these temperatures can lead to frostbite on exposed skin in a short amount of time.
While most of the state remains dry, a quick burst of light, fluffy snow is expected in the Ashland and Morehead areas during the morning commute. This won't be a major storm, but it could leave a thin dusting on grassy surfaces and bridges. Meanwhile, West Kentucky will see a beautiful recovery, with temperatures climbing into the low 50s by the afternoon under sunny skies.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
Significant thermal gradient across the state. Western KY is experiencing a standard WAA profile with a surface-based inversion, while Eastern KY features deep, Arctic cold with Cold Air Damming (CAD) signatures.
The sharpest temperature gradient is currently stalled along a line from Northern Kentucky through the Bluegrass Foothills.
Mainly diurnal across the state, though Western Kentucky is seeing a much larger rise (29 degrees) compared to the Northeast (16 degrees) due to airmass modification.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No surface fronts. The main feature is a moisture-starved shortwave trough pivoting through the Northeast during the 12z-16z period.
The polar jet is positioned to our north, with Kentucky residing in the relatively stable right-exit region, suppressing most large-scale lift.
A compact shortwave trough is providing a localized vorticity max (0.00012) over Northeast KY.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
Very dry low-levels (dewpoint depressions 15-25F) for most of the state. Shallow saturation in the dendritic growth zone is only present in the far Northeast.
Stratiform/clipping light snow in the NE; otherwise dry.
No hydrologic concerns given the extremely low liquid equivalents and dry antecedent conditions.
Winter Physics
Cold-season microphysics. This analyzes how snowflakes form, what type of crystals to expect, and whether roads will be warm enough to prevent accumulation.
Northeast KY shows a solid sub-freezing profile from surface to 500mb, ensuring all precipitation falls as snow.
Saturation in the -12C to -18C layer (DGZ) in Northeast KY favors large stellar dendrites, supporting 15:1 snow-to-liquid ratios.
Given the very light nature of the snow and cold pavement, a minor dusting is possible, but rapid melting is likely on treated surfaces once the sun emerges.
A Sunny Rebound After a Frigid Start
Residents across Kentucky will wake up to a very cold morning, with temperatures in the teens for many and even lower wind chills. However, the February sun will work quickly alongside a shifting wind to bring a much-needed warm-up by the afternoon.
By the time the sun sets, most of the state will see temperatures significantly higher than the morning lows, with western Kentucky even reaching into the 60s. No rain or snow is expected anywhere in the state, making for an excellent day for outdoor travel or chores, provided you dress in layers.
Regional Conditions
PURCHASE
NORTHWEST PENNYRILE
SOUTHWEST PENNYRILE
BARREN RIVER
LOUISVILLE METRO
LINCOLN TRAIL
LAKE CUMBERLAND
NORTHERN KY
BLUEGRASS CORE
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLS
NORTHEAST KY
SOUTHEAST COALFIELDS
Technical Analyses
To generate the forecast, our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from the GEM model. Each chart below represents a different aspect of the atmosphere—from the jet stream at 30,000 feet down to surface conditions—providing crucial pieces of the weather puzzle.
The AI model extracted key meteorological features from each analysis, identified patterns and conflicts between different atmospheric levels, and synthesized this information into a coherent forecast. For example, surface temperatures might suggest snow, but upper-level warmth could mean rain instead. The model weighs these factors to determine the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.
Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of each atmospheric analysis that contributed to the forecast, including what the model shows and how it influences Kentucky's weather.
Thermodynamics
How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.
The state is under the influence of a classic high-pressure subsidence inversion in the morning, which transitions to a well-mixed boundary layer by the afternoon as 850mb temps warm significantly (rising to +6C in the west and +2C in the east).
The 32F surface isotherm retreats from south to north between 13Z and 17Z, eventually resting north of the Ohio River.
Non-diurnal cooling is absent; instead, we see an exaggerated diurnal curve due to low dewpoints and high solar insolation.
Kinematics
Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.
No frontal passage. Surface winds shift from easterly to southerly throughout the day as the ridge axis passes.
The jet stream is located well to the north over the Great Lakes, leaving Kentucky in a region of high-level convergence and sinking air.
Vorticity values are near zero across the Commonwealth, indicating a lack of any shortwave energy to trigger cloud formation.
Hydrology
Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).
The entire column from 850mb to 300mb is characterized by dry air with RH values below 25%. No virga or precipitation is possible.
None; the forecast is strictly dry.
Zero flood risk; dry conditions will actually lead to an increase in surface evapotranspiration.