Sunday, August 30
Late Summer Heat Dominates with Isolated Stray Showers
A strong subtropical ridge will control Kentucky's weather for the end of August, bringing widespread heat and humidity. While most of the state will remain dry under a mix of sun and clouds, weak atmospheric energy may trigger a few stray, light showers in the western and southeastern corners of the Commonwealth. Highs will generally reach the low 90s.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for the overall heat and the dominance of the high-pressure ridge. Low confidence remains regarding the exact timing and placement of the 0.01-inch 'nuisance' showers, as models disagree on the interaction of weak energy with the terrain.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A hot day is ahead with highs reaching 92 degrees. While a brief morning shower is possible, most of the day will be sunny and dry.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect full sunshine and hot temperatures today. Highs will reach the low 90s with light winds.
Southwest Pennyrile
Afternoon highs will reach 91 degrees. Clouds will increase late in the day, with a small chance of a sprinkle after sunset.
Barren River
A humid day with highs around 90 degrees. A stray afternoon shower is possible but unlikely to impact outdoor plans.
Louisville Metro
The city will be hot with highs near 92 degrees. Sunshine will be plentiful with only a few passing clouds.
Lincoln Trail
A pleasant but hot late August day with highs in the low 90s. No rain is expected.
Lake Cumberland
Highs will reach 89 degrees. A few morning clouds will give way to a bright and warm afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
A very warm day with highs around 91 degrees. Clear skies and a light breeze will make for a typical summer day.
Inner Bluegrass
Highs will reach the upper 80s in Lexington. Expect a dry day with plenty of sunshine and a light breeze.
Bluegrass Foothills
A beautiful, warm day with highs near 88 degrees. Skies will be mostly clear throughout the day.
Northeast Kentucky
Highs will reach 91 degrees with clear skies. It will feel like a typical hot August afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a few morning sprinkles across the peaks, followed by a warm and mostly sunny afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level cap is weaker than anticipated, isolated showers could evolve into more robust pulse thunderstorms, particularly in the Purchase and Southeast Coalfields, leading to localized rainfall totals near 0.25 inches.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Should the ridge axis shift slightly further east, the entire state will see total subsidence. This would result in cloudless skies, zero precipitation, and slightly higher temperatures peaking in the mid-90s (the GFS solution).
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Shortwave Conflict
The NAM is aggressive in bringing a weak shortwave into Western KY, suggesting an 80% chance of light rain, whereas the GFS and Euro maintain a much drier profile.
Why EURO Wins
The NAM's 80% PoP for 0.01 inches is likely an over-correction to weak energy; the Euro's middle-ground approach of 'mostly dry with high clouds' better reflects the strength of the 594dm ridge.
The Thermal Peak Dispute
The GFS forecasts mid-90s statewide due to an extremely dry boundary layer, while NAM and Euro suggest more moisture and lower-90s.
Why BLEND Wins
GFS typically has a dry/warm bias in late summer ridge patterns. A blend of Euro/NAM moisture profiles suggests slightly more cloud cover will keep temps in the low 90s.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.