Friday, August 28
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 28 at 12:20AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Clear skies, light winds and lingering low-level moisture are helping areas of valley fog to develop and become dense late tonight. This fog will continue to expand through the night but likely remain the densest in the valleys. Visibilities will be below a quarter of a mile at times in the thickest of the fog. Be sure to slow down and use your low beam headlights when you encounter any fog.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 28 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Mostly clear skies, light winds, and lingering low-level moisture led to valley fog developing and becoming dense early this morning. Visibilities will be below a quarter of a mile at times in the thickest of the fog. Be sure to slow down when you encounter any fog. Visibilities will start to improve in most places by 9 am EDT.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 28 at 7:12AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
Areas of valley fog have developed this morning. Expect rapidly changing visibilities in locally dense fog. If traveling this morning, slow down, use low beam headlights when encountering fog, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Fog should dissipate by 9 AM or shortly thereafter.
Warm Late-Summer Sun with Isolated Eastern Sprinkles
Kentucky will see a mostly sunny and warm Friday, though a weak disturbance will bring cloudiness and trace precipitation to the eastern half of the state.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for the overall temperature range and dry conditions in Western KY, but minor disagreement remains regarding the exact extent of trace precipitation in the East.
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Purchase Area
Expect a full day of sunshine with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s. Conditions will be dry with light winds.
Northwest Pennyrile
A beautiful summer day with clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Abundant sunshine and light winds will make for a very warm afternoon near 87 degrees.
Barren River
Expect clear skies and warm temperatures. A light breeze will provide some relief in the afternoon.
Louisville Metro
Mostly sunny skies with temperatures peaking in the mid-80s. A fine evening for outdoor activities.
Lincoln Trail
Comfortable late-summer weather with highs in the mid-80s and clear blue skies.
Lake Cumberland
Morning clouds will break for a sunny and warm afternoon with highs in the mid-80s.
Northern Kentucky
Mostly sunny and very comfortable with temperatures reaching the low 80s.
Inner Bluegrass
A sunny day with a noticeable afternoon breeze and highs in the mid-80s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Mostly sunny, but a brief, light afternoon shower is possible. Accumulations will be around 0.01 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect a cloudy morning with some drizzle, followed by clearing skies and sun in the afternoon. Accumulations around 0.01 inches.
Southeast Kentucky
Cloudy morning with spotty drizzle likely. Clouds will break for afternoon sun with highs in the low 80s. Accumulations around 0.01 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
A slightly deeper moisture profile allows morning drizzle to persist into the afternoon for the entire eastern third of the state, holding temperatures in the upper 70s for the Coalfields.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The GFS solution verifies, where dry air entrainment completely scours out the moisture, leading to a bluebird day statewide with temperatures reaching 90 degrees in the Purchase area.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Eastern Moisture Debate
The GFS remains bone dry across the state, while the NAM and Euro suggest a shallow moist layer (900-850mb) will interact with terrain to produce trace rainfall in the east.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro's handling of the dry slot and moisture cutoff is typically superior in weak-forcing environments; it correctly identifies the persistence of low-level moisture in the valleys.
Temperature Gradient Conflict
The GFS is aggressively warm, pushing 90 degrees in Western KY, while the NAM is more conservative with mid-80s due to slightly lower 850mb temperatures.
Why BLEND Wins
High pressure usually favors GFS-style heating, but the lingering trough in the east will likely keep the state-wide average closer to a blend of the two solutions.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.