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Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Thu, Aug 27
Sat, Aug 29
Forecast For

Friday, August 28

Updated Aug 28, 7:14 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Special Weather Statement

Aug 28, 12:20 AM -> Aug 28, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 28 at 12:20AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 28, 5:00 AM -> Aug 28, 9:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 28 at 5:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 28, 7:12 AM -> Aug 28, 9:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 28 at 7:12AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Confidence
85%

Warm Late-Summer Sun with Isolated Eastern Sprinkles

Kentucky will see a mostly sunny and warm Friday, though a weak disturbance will bring cloudiness and trace precipitation to the eastern half of the state.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence exists for the overall temperature range and dry conditions in Western KY, but minor disagreement remains regarding the exact extent of trace precipitation in the East.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Sunny and Quite Warm
Sunny
88°/ 65°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Clear and Pleasant
Sunny
85°/ 65°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Warm and Bright
Sunny
87°/ 67°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Sunny Skies Prevail
Sunny
87°/ 65°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Warm Sun in the City
Sunny
86°/ 69°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Sunny and Dry
Sunny
85°/ 65°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Bright Afternoon Sun
Sunny
86°/ 65°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Pleasant and Bright
Sunny
84°/ 65°

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Sunshine with a Breeze
Sunny
85°/ 66°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Stray Afternoon Shower
Rain
83°/ 65°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Damp Start, Sunny End
Rain
84°/ 65°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Morning Clouds and Drizzle
Rain
83°/ 65°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

A slightly deeper moisture profile allows morning drizzle to persist into the afternoon for the entire eastern third of the state, holding temperatures in the upper 70s for the Coalfields.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The GFS solution verifies, where dry air entrainment completely scours out the moisture, leading to a bluebird day statewide with temperatures reaching 90 degrees in the Purchase area.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Eastern Moisture Debate

The GFS remains bone dry across the state, while the NAM and Euro suggest a shallow moist layer (900-850mb) will interact with terrain to produce trace rainfall in the east.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

The Euro's handling of the dry slot and moisture cutoff is typically superior in weak-forcing environments; it correctly identifies the persistence of low-level moisture in the valleys.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS FOOTHILLSNORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

Temperature Gradient Conflict

The GFS is aggressively warm, pushing 90 degrees in Western KY, while the NAM is more conservative with mid-80s due to slightly lower 850mb temperatures.

NAM
VS
GFS
Why BLEND Wins

High pressure usually favors GFS-style heating, but the lingering trough in the east will likely keep the state-wide average closer to a blend of the two solutions.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILELOUISVILLE METRO

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A well-mixed boundary layer is present with a standard adiabatic lapse rate up to 800mb. A weak capping inversion is evident at 700mb, particularly in the western regions.

Thermal Boundary

No significant thermal boundaries; the freezing line remains well north of the Great Lakes.

Diurnal Trend

Strictly diurnal curve expected with efficient solar heating during the day and radiational cooling overnight.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No frontal passage. Surface high pressure is building from the west with subtle NW wind shifts.

Jet Stream Support

The jet stream is positioned north of the Ohio River in a zonal configuration, providing negligible lift.

Energy Status

A compact, weak shortwave trough is pivoting through the Ohio Valley during the morning and early afternoon.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is dry (PWAT < 1.0 inch) except for a shallow saturated layer below 800mb in the eastern mountains.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be light and stratiform in nature, characterized by morning drizzle or very light afternoon showers.

Flooding Context

No flooding risk; ground conditions are dry and totals will remain below 0.05 inches statewide.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Full Moon

100% Illumination
Moonrise
8:14 PM
Moonset
7:42 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:23 AM
Sunset
8:31 PM
Civil Dawn
6:56 AM
Civil Dusk
8:57 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:16 AM
Sunset
8:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:49 AM
Civil Dusk
8:53 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:19 AM
Sunset
8:26 PM
Civil Dawn
6:52 AM
Civil Dusk
8:53 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:14 AM
Sunset
8:22 PM
Civil Dawn
6:48 AM
Civil Dusk
8:49 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:10 AM
Sunset
8:21 PM
Civil Dawn
6:43 AM
Civil Dusk
8:48 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:11 AM
Sunset
8:20 PM
Civil Dawn
6:44 AM
Civil Dusk
8:47 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:07 AM
Sunset
8:15 PM
Civil Dawn
6:40 AM
Civil Dusk
8:41 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
7:04 AM
Sunset
8:17 PM
Civil Dawn
6:36 AM
Civil Dusk
8:44 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:05 AM
Sunset
8:15 PM
Civil Dawn
6:38 AM
Civil Dusk
8:43 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:05 AM
Sunset
8:14 PM
Civil Dawn
6:38 AM
Civil Dusk
8:41 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:57 AM
Sunset
8:08 PM
Civil Dawn
6:30 AM
Civil Dusk
8:36 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
7:01 AM
Sunset
8:09 PM
Civil Dawn
6:34 AM
Civil Dusk
8:36 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.