Thursday, August 27
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 27 at 12:45AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 1244 AM EDT/1144 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Corydon to 10 miles west of Brandenburg to near Grandview. Movement was south at 25 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Tell City, Corydon, Brandenburg, Hawesville, Mount Pleasant, Webster, Lewisport, Cannelton, Irvington, and Cloverport.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 27 at 6:07AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Patchy dense fog has developed across portions of western Kentucky, far southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana early this morning. Be prepared for sudden changes to visibility with some areas down to 1/4 mile. Conditions will improve by 8 AM.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 27 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 459 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Indian Lakes Park, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Crab Orchard, Ottenheim, Turkeytown, Broughtentown, and Dog Walk.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Scattered Summer Showers Yield to Warm Afternoon Sun
A weakening mid-level disturbance will traverse Kentucky today, bringing a period of light rain and drizzle before clearing from west to east. Afternoon sunshine will return for most, with highs reaching the mid-80s.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall synoptic track and the non-convective nature of the rain; slight uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing of the clearing line for the Bluegrass region.
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Purchase Area
Light rain will move through during the pre-dawn and morning hours, ending by approximately 10:00 AM. Skies will clear quickly thereafter, leading to a sunny and warm afternoon with highs in the mid-80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect wet roads for the morning commute as light rain passes through the region. The rain will taper off by midday, allowing for a mix of sun and clouds for the afternoon.
Southwest Pennyrile
Light rain showers are likely during the morning hours. By mid-afternoon, the rain will end and clouds will begin to break up, leading to a warm evening.
Barren River
Showers will be off-and-on from breakfast through the mid-afternoon around Bowling Green. While total rain will be light, a cloudy sky will keep things cooler for much of the day.
Louisville Metro
Expect light rain and damp roads for the morning drive. The rain will move out by early afternoon, leaving the city with warm and breezy conditions for the evening.
Lincoln Trail
Cloudy skies and light rain will persist through lunch. Skies will begin to clear by late afternoon, with a pleasant evening in store.
Lake Cumberland
Light rain will be common during the morning and early afternoon. The weather will improve by late afternoon as the rain moves east, though clouds may linger.
Northern Kentucky
Showers will move through Covington and the surrounding areas during the overnight and early morning hours. Expect a dry and warm afternoon as skies clear out by lunchtime.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect light, off-and-on rain for much of the morning and early afternoon. Sunshine will likely return late in the day, though temperatures will be slightly cooler than the west.
Bluegrass Foothills
The Richmond and Danville areas will see mostly cloudy skies and a few stray light showers. Most of the day will be dry, with temperatures reaching the mid-80s.
Northeast Kentucky
Most of the morning will be dry, with rain chances increasing by lunchtime and lasting through the evening. Temperatures will be warm and humid ahead of the rain.
Southeast Kentucky
Cloudy skies will prevail with rain showers developing by the afternoon. The rain will likely linger through the evening hours across the eastern mountains.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
Thicker cloud cover persists through the afternoon, keeping temperatures in the upper 70s and allowing light rain to linger across central Kentucky through sunset.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry air in the sub-cloud layer (850mb) causes the majority of the rain to evaporate as virga, leaving the state with only a few sprinkles and a quicker return to sunshine.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Sub-Cloud Moisture Duel
A significant disagreement exists regarding the saturation of the boundary layer. The Euro shows a deeply saturated column capable of widespread light rain, while the GFS and NAM suggest a drier 850mb layer that would favor virga and lower totals.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro's moisture handling in subtropical airmasses is generally more consistent, and current regional radar trends show higher saturation than the NAM/GFS initializations.
The Afternoon Temperature Tug-of-War
GFS is an outlier with highs near 90F, whereas the NAM and Euro suggest cloud cover and evaporative cooling will keep highs in the low-to-mid 80s.
Why BLEND Wins
While the GFS likely overestimates solar insolation, the clearing trend in the west is high-confidence, allowing for a late-day rally in temperatures.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.