Forecast For

Wednesday, August 26

Updated Aug 26, 7:18 AM EDT

Confidence

80%

Summary Regions Outcomes Battles Analysis Almanac Charts

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Special Weather Statement

Aug 26, 10:20 AM -> Aug 26, 10:45 AM

Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 26 at 9:20AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

At 920 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong thunderstorms extending from 10 miles northwest of Murray to 11 miles south of Cayce, or extending from 10 miles northwest of Murray to 13 miles southeast of Hickman, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE Radar indicated.

IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Mayfield, Fulton, Sedalia, Lynnville, Hazel, Water Valley and Harris Grove.

Instructions

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening weather conditions.

Confidence

80%

Late Summer Sun Dominates; Western Showers Arrive Late

A strong upper-level ridge will keep much of Central and Eastern Kentucky dry and sunny for the majority of Wednesday. Meanwhile, an approaching shortwave trough will bring increasing clouds and rain chances to the Purchase and Western Pennyrile regions by the afternoon and evening.

Why is this happening?

Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup

Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the temperature profile and dry conditions for Eastern KY; however, there is moderate uncertainty regarding how far east the western rain shield will penetrate.

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Purchase Area

NUISANCE

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield

Evening Rain Likely

Rain

88°/ 68°

The day will start with some sun, but clouds will rapidly increase by midday. Rain showers are expected to move in during the late afternoon and evening hours. Expect total rainfall around 0.15 inches. It will feel muggy with highs in the upper 80s.

Precipitation80%

Wind6 mph / 15 mph

Wind Chill68°

Accumulation

Rain

0.15"

The "Why"

Vorticity advection increases after 21z. Column saturation below 700mb is achieved by 00z, supporting stratiform rain.

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield

Cloudy and Humid

Cloudy

86°/ 65°

A mostly dry day is in store, though clouds will be more prevalent than in recent days. A stray shower is possible late in the evening. Highs will reach the mid-80s with noticeably higher humidity.

Precipitation20%

Wind5 mph / 12 mph

Wind Chill65°

The "Why"

The region remains in a dry slot between the western shortwave and the eastern ridge. Capping at 800mb inhibits vertical growth.

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton

Afternoon Showers Possible

Rain

85°/ 67°

Clouds will thicken throughout the day with a few light rain showers possible after 4 PM. Most of the morning will remain dry. Temperatures will top out in the mid-80s.

Precipitation40%

Wind5 mph / 10 mph

Wind Chill67°

Accumulation

Rain

0.05"

The "Why"

Isentropic lift on the 305K surface provides the primary forcing for light showers late in the period.

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin

Mostly Sunny and Warm

Sunny

86°/ 63°

A beautiful summer day for the Bowling Green area. Expect plenty of sunshine and light winds with highs in the mid-80s. Rain chances are very low as high pressure stays in control.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind4 mph / 8 mph

Wind Chill63°

The "Why"

Strong subsidence inversion at 700mb will suppress any convective development.

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville

Sunny and Hot

Sunny

89°/ 66°

Expect a hot and sunny day across the Metro area with highs approaching the upper 80s. While a few clouds may drift in late, it will remain dry for your outdoor plans.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind5 mph / 10 mph

Wind Chill66°

The "Why"

The NAM-12km soundings show a deep layer of dry air from 850mb to 500mb, which will prevent any rain from reaching the surface.

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield

Plenty of Sunshine

Sunny

85°/ 62°

A very pleasant day with clear skies and warm temperatures. Highs will be in the mid-80s. Light winds will make for a great day for outdoor work.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind4 mph

Wind Chill62°

The "Why"

Regional ridging remains dominant with negative vorticity advection aloft.

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello

Ideal Lake Weather

Sunny

85°/ 62°

Warm sun and gentle breezes will make for excellent conditions on the water. Highs will reach the mid-80s. Skies will remain mostly clear through the overnight hours.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind5 mph / 12 mph

Wind Chill62°

The "Why"

Broad subsidence under the ridge axis provides a stable atmospheric column.

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence

Sunny with Increasing Evening Clouds

Sunny

85°/ 60°

A sunny and warm day will give way to more clouds by late evening. While a stray sprinkle is possible late at night, most areas will stay dry. Highs will be in the mid-80s.

Precipitation20%

Wind6 mph / 11 mph

Wind Chill60°

The "Why"

Glancing blow from a northern stream wave may increase cloud cover after 00z, but low-level dry air will inhibit measurable rainfall.

Inner Bluegrass

Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester

Classic Summer Day

Sunny

85°/ 61°

Expect clear skies and comfortable afternoon warmth across Lexington and Georgetown. Highs will reach the mid-80s. Humidity will be moderate, making for a very pleasant day.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind5 mph / 8 mph

Wind Chill61°

The "Why"

Surface high pressure centered to the east maintains dry, northeasterly low-level flow.

Bluegrass Foothills

Richmond, Danville, Berea

Sunny and Pleasant

Sunny

83°/ 58°

A cooler start in the morning will lead into a beautiful, sunny afternoon. Highs will be in the low-to-mid 80s. Great weather is expected for all outdoor activities.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind5 mph

Wind Chill58°

The "Why"

Dry air mass and light winds favor deep diurnal mixing.

Northeast Kentucky

Ashland, Morehead, Grayson

Bright and Warm

Sunny

85°/ 55°

Any morning valley fog will burn off quickly, leaving a bright and warm day. Highs will reach the mid-80s. The evening will be clear and calm.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind4 mph

Wind Chill55°

The "Why"

High pressure remains firmly in control with high solar insolation expected.

Southeast Kentucky

Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan

Crisp Morning, Sunny Afternoon

Sunny

85°/ 53°

A cool, crisp start in the mountain valleys will transition to a warm and sunny afternoon. Highs will be in the mid-80s. Skies will remain clear through the evening.

Precipitation< 10%

Wind4 mph

Wind Chill53°

The "Why"

Classic Appalachian high-pressure setup with a strong diurnal temperature spread of over 30 degrees.

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

A more aggressive shortwave allows rain to spread east of I-65 by sunset, with totals in the Purchase area exceeding 0.30 inches under persistent stratiform bands.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The ridge remains stubborn, shunting the western moisture into Illinois and leaving the entire state bone-dry with temperatures peaking near 90 degrees.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Central KY Moisture Smear

The ECMWF and GFS are aggressive in spreading 80% PoP across the Bluegrass and Northern KY, but with nearly zero liquid accumulation, suggesting a 'mist or drizzle' scenario. The NAM remains bone-dry with 10% PoP under strong subsidence.

NAM

GFS

EURO

Why NAM Wins

The GFS is likely exhibiting its known 'Phantom Precip' smear, and the NAM better resolves the dry-air wedge at 850mb which should evaporate most light moisture into virga east of I-65.

Affected Regions

BLUEGRASS CORENORTHERN KYLOUISVILLE METRO

Western Rain Timing

The GFS brings rain into the Purchase region during the morning commute, while the NAM and Euro delay the arrival until the late afternoon and evening hours.

GFS

NAM

EURO

Why EURO Wins

The ECMWF and NAM show better consistency with the timing of the 500mb vorticity maximum, suggesting the morning will likely remain dry with rain increasing after 4 PM.

Affected Regions

PURCHASESOUTHWEST PENNYRILE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A well-mixed, late-summer boundary layer is present across the state. In the East, a sharp surface-based inversion is expected overnight due to radiational cooling in the valleys, while the West remains more isothermal due to cloud cover.

Thermal Boundary

The primary thermal boundary is located well north of the Ohio River; no significant temperature gradients exist within the state borders today.

Diurnal Trend

Standard diurnal heating will see temps rise from morning lows in the 50s and 60s to afternoon highs in the mid-80s. Cloud cover in the West will flatten the curve during the evening hours.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No significant surface front is present. A weak surface trough is noted over the Mississippi River, but its eastward progression is slow.

Jet Stream Support

The region is beneath the right entrance region of a 100kt jet streak over the Great Lakes, providing broad but weak synoptic lift.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is currently providing positive vorticity advection (PVA) into the Purchase region, while negative vorticity advection (NVA) maintains the ridge in the East.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Deep-layer saturation is confined to the Western Purchase. Significant dewpoint depressions at 850mb-700mb across Central KY will likely result in virga for any attempts at light rain there.

Precipitation Character

Rain will be primarily stratiform with very low convective potential due to CAPE values remaining below 300 J/kg.

Flooding Context

Ground conditions are relatively dry; forecast rain totals of 0.10 to 0.20 inches pose no hydrologic threat.

Celestial Almanac

View NAM Analysis View GFS Analysis View ECMWF Analysis View GEM Analysis