Tuesday, August 25
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 25 at 5:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Fog has developed overnight, mainly in the valleys, and has become dense in some areas with visibilities reduced to a quarter of a mile or less. Expect visibilities to vary significantly over short distances this morning, with the fog gradually lifting and dissipating during the 9 to 10 AM EDT timeframe. If traveling this morning, slow down, use low beam headlights when encountering fog, and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Late Summer Sunshine Dominates Across the Commonwealth
A robust ridge of high pressure will maintain control over Kentucky, bringing wall-to-wall sunshine and seasonable warmth. A weak, decaying cluster of showers may clip the far western Purchase area before dawn, but most of the state will remain completely dry with light winds.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence is driven by strong model agreement on the synoptic ridge and very dry air mass. The only minor uncertainty is a brief sprinkle in the far west.
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Purchase Area
Expect some clouds and perhaps a stray sprinkle before 7:00 AM as a weak system fades out. The rest of the day will be sunny and warm with highs reaching the upper 80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
A beautiful late August day is on tap with clear blue skies and afternoon temperatures in the mid-80s. Light winds will continue through the evening.
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunshine will be the rule today with temperatures warming comfortably into the mid-to-upper 80s. Humidity will remain manageable for late August.
Barren River
Expect a dry and sunny day with highs in the mid-80s. A light breeze will be the only movement in an otherwise calm atmosphere.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see full sunshine and seasonable temperatures in the mid-80s. The city will stay slightly warmer than rural areas overnight.
Lincoln Trail
A pleasant morning will lead into a bright, sunny afternoon. High temperatures will be very comfortable, topping out in the low 80s.
Lake Cumberland
Boaters can expect ideal conditions today with clear skies, light winds, and highs in the low 80s. No rain is in the forecast.
Northern Kentucky
Sunny skies and light winds will make for a fantastic day in Northern Kentucky. Highs will be near 81 degrees with very low humidity.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington and the surrounding Bluegrass will enjoy full sun and seasonable temperatures today. Highs will reach the low 80s after a crisp morning.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a calm and bright day in the foothills. Temperatures will climb from a cool start in the 50s into the low 80s by the afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Any early morning valley fog will burn off quickly, leaving behind a beautiful sunny day with temperatures near 80 degrees.
Southeast Kentucky
Residents in the deep valleys will wake up to a crisp morning with temperatures in the low 50s. The day will warm up beautifully into the upper 70s under sunny skies.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the ridge axis centers directly over the state and boundary layer mixing maximizes, temperatures in the Purchase and Pennyrile regions could reach the lower 90s with significantly higher heat indices.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If cloud debris from the decaying western shortwave lingers longer than expected, high temperatures across the western half of the state may be held to the lower 80s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Eastern Valley Drainage
Significant disagreement on morning lows in the Eastern Coalfields, with the NAM suggesting 49F while the GFS holds closer to 55F.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM handles shallow cold air damming and radiational cooling in deep-valley terrain much better than the lower-resolution global GFS.
The Purchase Pre-Dawn Sprinkle
The ECMWF predicts a decaying convective remnant reaching the far western counties before 6 AM, while the NAM and GFS keep the entire state bone-dry.
Why EURO Wins
The ECMWF is superior at resolving moisture cutoffs and the remnants of decaying complexes in high-pressure environments; however, it only produces a trace of precipitation.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.