Monday, August 24
Abundant Sunshine and Seasonal Temps for the Commonwealth
A dry and pleasant late-August day is expected statewide as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature. Skies will be mostly sunny with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid-80s.
Confidence Assessment
Strong agreement between the ECMWF and GFS regarding the dominance of the surface high pressure and dry vertical column. The NAM is currently a wet outlier in a regime typically handled better by global models.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures reaching the mid-80s. Winds will be light and variable.
Northwest Pennyrile
A tranquil day with highs near 80 and very light winds. Skies will remain clear through the evening.
Southwest Pennyrile
Bright sunshine will push temperatures into the mid-80s, making it the warmest region in Kentucky today.
Barren River
A textbook late-summer day for the Bowling Green area with highs in the mid-80s and clear skies.
Louisville Metro
Expect sunny conditions across the metro area with a high of 81. A pleasant evening is in store for the city.
Lincoln Trail
Mostly sunny skies with comfortable temperatures near 81. Great weather for any outdoor plans.
Lake Cumberland
Ideal lake weather with full sun and temperatures around 81. Overnight will be clear and cool.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will enjoy the mildest temperatures in the state, with a pleasant high of 78 under bright skies.
Inner Bluegrass
A wonderful day for Lexington and surrounding counties with highs near 79 and a gentle afternoon breeze.
Bluegrass Foothills
Mostly sunny and pleasant with highs reaching 79. Clear skies will continue into the night.
Northeast Kentucky
Morning fog will burn off to reveal a sunny and mild afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a sunny and pleasant day across the mountains with highs near 79. Overnight will be cool and crisp.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
A weak mid-level ripple interacts with slightly higher-than-expected boundary layer moisture to produce a few isolated sprinkles or a brief, non-accumulating light shower, primarily in the Purchase and Northeast regions.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Complete suppression by the surface high leads to zero cloud cover and slightly higher afternoon temperatures due to maximum solar insolation.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The NAM's Damp Disturbance
The NAM suggests weak shortwave energy and slightly higher low-level moisture will produce scattered light rain showers (80% PoP) with minimal totals, while the GFS and Euro maintain a completely dry profile.
Why EURO Wins
Synoptic-scale subsidence from the 1018mb surface high is better resolved by the global models. NAM's moisture profile appears over-saturated in the 925-850mb layer compared to broader regional trends and historical biases in weak-forcing regimes.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.