Sunday, August 23
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 22 at 4:51PM EDT until August 22 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BOYD CARTER GREENUP LAWRENCE IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BRAXTON CLAY IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BOONE KANAWHA LINCOLN PUTNAM IN WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA CABELL WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALUM CREEK, ASHLAND, BURNSVILLE, CANNONSBURG, CARTER CAVES STATE PARK, CEREDO, CHARLESTON, CLAY, FLATWOODS, GASSAWAY, GRAYSON, GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK, HAMLIN, HARTS, HUNTINGTON, HURRICANE, KENOVA, LOUISA, MADISON, OLIVE HILL, RACELAND, RUSSELL, SAINT ALBANS, SOUTH CHARLESTON, SUTTON, TEAYS VALLEY, WAYNE, AND YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 22 at 4:53PM EDT until August 22 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 28 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BATH ELLIOTT ESTILL MENIFEE MONTGOMERY POWELL ROWAN IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY JOHNSON MARTIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY LAUREL MCCREARY PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD JACKSON KNOTT KNOX LEE LESLIE MAGOFFIN MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY WOLFE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANNVILLE, BARBOURVILLE, BEATTYVILLE, BOONEVILLE, BRODHEAD, BURNSIDE, CAMARGO, CAMPTON, CLAY CITY, CORBIN, FRENCHBURG, HAZARD, HINDMAN, HYDEN, INEZ, IRVINE, JACKSON, JEFFERSONVILLE, LONDON, MANCHESTER, MCKEE, MONTICELLO, MOREHEAD, MOUNT STERLING, MOUNT VERNON, OWINGSVILLE, PAINTSVILLE, PIPPA PASSES, PRESTONSBURG, RAVENNA, SALYERSVILLE, SANDY HOOK, SOMERSET, STANTON, STEARNS, WEST LIBERTY, WHEELWRIGHT, WHITLEY CITY, AND WILLIAMSBURG.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 22 at 6:20PM EDT until August 22 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ADAIR CLINTON CUMBERLAND METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALBANY, AMANDAVILLE, BEAUMONT, BURKESVILLE, CANE VALLEY, COBURG, COLUMBIA, CREELSBORO, CROCUS, CUMBERLAND CITY, DUBRE, EDMONTON, ELLA, GASCON, GLENS FORK, GRADYVILLE, HESTAND, JABEZ, JAMESTOWN, KNOB LICK, MARROWBONE, MIDDLETOWN, MUD LICK, OLGA, PEYTONSBURG, ROCKBRIDGE, RUSSELL SPRINGS, SALEM, STATIC, SUMMER SHADE, TOMPKINSVILLE, AND WISDOM.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 23 at 4:31AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Fog has developed overnight, mainly in the valleys, and has become dense in some areas with visibilities reduced to a quarter of a mile or less. Expect visibilities to vary significantly over short distances this morning, with the fog gradually lifting and dissipating by the 9 AM to 10 AM EDT timeframe. If traveling this morning, slow down, use low beam headlights when encountering fog, and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 23 at 4:39AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Clear skies and light winds has allowed for dense valley fog to develop. Patchy fog is also possible outside of the valley areas. Visibilities may drop to a quarter of a mile at times. Slow down in fog and use your low beam headlights when driving through areas of fog.
A Tale of Two Kentuckys: Dry West, Damp Mountain Mornings
A late-summer split will define the day as high pressure builds from the west while lingering moisture and terrain lift trigger light showers across the eastern mountains.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature range and western dryness; minor uncertainty regarding the exact exit timing of clouds and drizzle in the eastern third of the state.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A beautiful late August day with plenty of sunshine and light winds. Temperatures will be the warmest in the state, reaching the mid-80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect clear skies throughout the day with a gentle breeze. Highs will reach the low 80s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A quiet weather day with warm afternoon temperatures and only a few passing clouds.
Barren River
Enjoy a comfortable day with low humidity and plenty of sunshine. Highs will be near 82 degrees.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see blue skies and seasonable warmth. Highs in the low 80s with a light afternoon breeze.
Lincoln Trail
A mix of sun and fair-weather clouds with temperatures staying very comfortable near 81 degrees.
Lake Cumberland
Cloudy skies will prevail for much of the morning with light drizzle possible. Expect gradual clearing by late afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
A perfect day with sunny skies and pleasant afternoon temperatures reaching 81 degrees.
Inner Bluegrass
A comfortable day for the Lexington area with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will be near 80 degrees.
Bluegrass Foothills
More clouds than sun today will keep temperatures slightly cooler with highs in the upper 70s.
Northeast Kentucky
A grey start with valley fog and light drizzle. Expect clouds to slowly lift by late afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a damp day in the mountains with persistent light showers and cloudy skies. Accumulations will be around 0.05 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the low-level moisture boundary slows its eastward progression, scattered showers could linger into the late afternoon for the Bluegrass Core and Lake Cumberland regions, keeping temperatures in the 70s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the dry air advection from the GFS solution dominates, even the eastern mountains will see clouds clear by mid-morning with zero measurable precipitation state-wide.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Eastern Moisture Scrape
A sharp disagreement exists between the GFS and the NAM/Euro regarding measurable precipitation in the mountains. GFS shows a completely dry column, while NAM/Euro indicate a saturated boundary layer up to 850mb.
Why NAM Wins
NAM superior resolution of topographic lift and cold air damming in the Kentucky river valleys makes its projection of light drizzle more physically plausible in this setup.
The Cloud Cover Conflict
Models are split on how quickly the mid-level moisture (700mb) clears. The Euro suggests a persistent stratocumulus deck across Central Kentucky, while GFS is aggressively clear.
Why EURO Wins
Euro typically handles the erosion of post-frontal cloud decks more accurately than the GFS, which often over-estimates drying in the wake of departing troughs.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.