Saturday, August 22
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Mostly clear skies, light winds, and lingering low-level moisture are helping areas of valley fog to develop and become dense late tonight. This fog will continue to expand through the night but likely remain the densest in the valleys. Visibilities will be below a quarter of a mile at times in the thickest of the fog. Be sure to slow down and use your low beam headlights when you encounter any fog.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 4:44AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Fog, dense in several valley locations, will be most prevalent in locations south of the Mountain Parkway. Visibilities will be reduced to below a quarter of a mile at times and visibilities will vary significantly over short distances. The fog should gradually lift and dissipate by the 9 to 10 AM EDT timeframe. If traveling this morning, slow down, use low beam headlights when you encounter any fog, and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 5:12AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Fog, dense in several valley locations, will be most prevalent in locations south of the Mountain Parkway. Visibilities will be reduced to below a quarter of a mile at times and visibilities will vary significantly over short distances. The fog should gradually lift and dissipate by the 9 to 10 AM EDT timeframe. If traveling this morning, slow down, use low beam headlights when you encounter any fog, and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 5:18AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Clear skies and light winds has allowed for dense valley fog to develop. Patchy fog is also possible outside of the valley areas. Visibilities may drop to a quarter of a mile at times. Slow down in fog and use your low beam headlights when driving through areas of fog.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 3:07PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 307 PM EDT/207 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles northeast of Leitchfield, moving southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Harcourt, Pierce Mill, Limp, Eastview, White Mills, Star Mills, Flint Hill, Hansbrough, Stephensburg, and Solway.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 3:27PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 327 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Ramey, or 7 miles west of Morehead, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Morehead, Marshall, Salt Lick, Ramey, Moore's Ferry, Christy, Hilda, Sharkey, Cogswell, Zilpo, Pelfrey, Polksville, Hamm, Crix, Farmers, Munson, Brandy, Bluestone, Haldeman, and Clearfield. THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers 126 and 142.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 3:34PM EDT until August 22 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 333 PM EDT/233 PM CDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located 13 miles southwest of Elizabethtown, moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Upton, Sonora, Spurrier, Harcourt, Seven Corners, Eastview, White Mills, Star Mills, Flint Hill, and White Mills Junction.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Louisville.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 3:37PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 337 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Tilton, or near Flemingsburg, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Flemingsburg, Cranston, Pecks Ridge, Muses Mills, Hillsboro, Craintown, Wallingford, Plummers Landing, Poplar Plains, Tilton, Waltz, and Goddard.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 3:39PM EDT until August 22 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 338 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Rothwell, or near Frenchburg, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Frenchburg and Denniston.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 22 at 4:51PM EDT until August 22 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BOYD CARTER GREENUP LAWRENCE IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BRAXTON CLAY IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BOONE KANAWHA LINCOLN PUTNAM IN WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA CABELL WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALUM CREEK, ASHLAND, BURNSVILLE, CANNONSBURG, CARTER CAVES STATE PARK, CEREDO, CHARLESTON, CLAY, FLATWOODS, GASSAWAY, GRAYSON, GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK, HAMLIN, HARTS, HUNTINGTON, HURRICANE, KENOVA, LOUISA, MADISON, OLIVE HILL, RACELAND, RUSSELL, SAINT ALBANS, SOUTH CHARLESTON, SUTTON, TEAYS VALLEY, WAYNE, AND YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 22 at 4:53PM EDT until August 22 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 28 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BATH ELLIOTT ESTILL MENIFEE MONTGOMERY POWELL ROWAN IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY JOHNSON MARTIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY LAUREL MCCREARY PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD JACKSON KNOTT KNOX LEE LESLIE MAGOFFIN MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY WOLFE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANNVILLE, BARBOURVILLE, BEATTYVILLE, BOONEVILLE, BRODHEAD, BURNSIDE, CAMARGO, CAMPTON, CLAY CITY, CORBIN, FRENCHBURG, HAZARD, HINDMAN, HYDEN, INEZ, IRVINE, JACKSON, JEFFERSONVILLE, LONDON, MANCHESTER, MCKEE, MONTICELLO, MOREHEAD, MOUNT STERLING, MOUNT VERNON, OWINGSVILLE, PAINTSVILLE, PIPPA PASSES, PRESTONSBURG, RAVENNA, SALYERSVILLE, SANDY HOOK, SOMERSET, STANTON, STEARNS, WEST LIBERTY, WHEELWRIGHT, WHITLEY CITY, AND WILLIAMSBURG.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 22 at 6:20PM EDT until August 22 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ADAIR CLINTON CUMBERLAND METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALBANY, AMANDAVILLE, BEAUMONT, BURKESVILLE, CANE VALLEY, COBURG, COLUMBIA, CREELSBORO, CROCUS, CUMBERLAND CITY, DUBRE, EDMONTON, ELLA, GASCON, GLENS FORK, GRADYVILLE, HESTAND, JABEZ, JAMESTOWN, KNOB LICK, MARROWBONE, MIDDLETOWN, MUD LICK, OLGA, PEYTONSBURG, ROCKBRIDGE, RUSSELL SPRINGS, SALEM, STATIC, SUMMER SHADE, TOMPKINSVILLE, AND WISDOM.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 6:28PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 628 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Keck, or near Jackson, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Jackson, Simpson, Rosefork, Keck, Buck, Carver, Cornelia, Daisydell, Noctor, Foraker, Swampton, Camp Lewis, Vancleve, Rock Lick, Wilstacy, Carver Station, Moct, Frozen Creek, Quicksand, and Wilhurst.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for southeastern Kentucky.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 6:31PM EDT until August 22 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
SVRJKL The National Weather Service in JACKSON KY has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Perry County in southeastern Kentucky... Northwestern Knott County in southeastern Kentucky... Eastern Breathitt County in southeastern Kentucky... Southwestern Magoffin County in southeastern Kentucky... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 631 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Foraker, or near Salyersville, moving south at 20 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Foraker around 635 PM EDT. Lambric around 640 PM EDT. Duco around 645 PM EDT. Evanston around 650 PM EDT. Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include Decoy and Vail.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 6:38PM EDT until August 22 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 637 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Marshallville, or near Salyersville, moving southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Prestonsburg, Salyersville, Mason, Martin, Allen, Fredville, Hippo, Vail, Handshoe, Gunlock, Lancer, and Carver.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 6:41PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 641 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Saul, or 10 miles northwest of Hyden, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Hazard, Hyden, Dryhill, Lamont, Shoal, Viper, Daley, Kaliopi, Bobs Fork, Confluence, Whoopflarea, Mosley Bend, Chavies, Thousandsticks, Buckhorn Lake S.P., Bulan, Avawam, Jacks Creek, Saul, and Sizerock. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... Hal Rogers Parkway between mile markers 37 and 59. Kentucky Highway 80 in Perry County between mile markers 9 and 13.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for southeastern Kentucky.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 6:47PM EDT until August 22 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 647 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Lone to Arnett, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. These severe storms will be near... Tallega around 650 PM EDT. Jackson around 655 PM EDT. Other locations in the path of these severe thunderstorms include Copland.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 6:47PM EDT until August 22 at 7:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
SVRJKL The National Weather Service in JACKSON KY has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Owsley County in southeastern Kentucky... Northwestern Leslie County in southeastern Kentucky... Northern Perry County in southeastern Kentucky... West central Knott County in southeastern Kentucky... East central Clay County in southeastern Kentucky... * Until 730 PM EDT. * At 647 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Shoal, or 8 miles northwest of Hyden, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Toulouse around 655 PM EDT. Hazard around 705 PM EDT. Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include Bulan and Cordia.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Summer Showers Sweep East; Afternoon Clearing for the West
A weak shortwave trough will traverse Kentucky today, bringing a corridor of light stratiform rain and widespread cloud cover. Western regions will see early rain followed by clearing, while Eastern Kentucky sees rain persist through the evening.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in temperatures and precipitation type (rain), but significant model disagreement regarding the western extent of measurable rainfall and localized intensity in the Central/East.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Light rain is possible early this morning, but clouds will break by the afternoon. Expect a hot afternoon with highs reaching nearly 90 degrees.
Northwest Pennyrile
Most areas will stay dry today under a mix of sun and clouds. It will be a pleasant summer day with highs in the mid-80s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A few morning sprinkles are possible, but the afternoon will be sunny and hot. Highs will top out around 89 degrees.
Barren River
Expect a mix of clouds and sun with light rain showers arriving this afternoon. Temperatures will be humid and warm in the upper 80s.
Louisville Metro
Clouds will increase through the morning with light rain showers likely after noon. The evening will remain damp but temperatures will stay in the mid-80s.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a period of steady rain today, with accumulations around 0.15 inches. The heaviest rain is expected between midday and early evening.
Lake Cumberland
A mostly cloudy day with light rain showers moving through from mid-morning to evening. Highs will be slightly cooler, topping out in the mid-80s.
Northern Kentucky
Expect an overcast and damp day with showers likely during the afternoon hours. Highs will be held to the low 80s due to cloud cover.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see light rain and sprinkles this afternoon. Accumulations will be very light, and clouds will dominate the day.
Bluegrass Foothills
Most of the rain will arrive late this afternoon and evening. Highs will stay in the low 80s under heavy cloud cover.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect the most consistent rain today in Northeast Kentucky, with totals near 0.35 inches. The rain will start this afternoon and continue into the night.
Southeast Kentucky
Clouds will increase through the day, with light rain arriving by this evening. Temperatures will be comfortable with highs in the low 80s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario involves the NAM's higher-resolution moisture convergence verifying, particularly along the Muldraugh Escarpment and Northeast mountains, leading to localized rainfall totals exceeding 0.75 inches.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario sees the GFS's subtropical ridge winning out in the west, suppressing the shortwave energy and leaving most of the state with nothing more than sprinkles and overcast skies (Virga).
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Lincoln Trail Bullseye
The NAM predicts a localized 0.66 inch rainfall bullseye over the Lincoln Trail, likely due to mesoscale convergence, while global models show less than 0.10 inches.
Why BLEND Wins
NAM bullseyes in stratiform setups are often overdone; however, terrain lift on the Escarpment warrants a higher total than the global models suggest.
The Western Dry Slot Dispute
The GFS insists on a bone-dry forecast for the Purchase and Pennyrile regions due to ridge-induced subsidence, while the NAM and Euro suggest a quick-hitting wave of morning light rain.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides the best compromise, capturing the timing of the NAM's shortwave while avoiding the GFS's over-aggressive drying under the ridge periphery.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.