kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Fri, Aug 21
Sun, Aug 23
Forecast For

Saturday, August 22

Updated Aug 22, 7:15 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Special Weather Statement

Aug 22, 12:00 AM -> Aug 22, 6:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 22, 4:44 AM -> Aug 22, 9:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 4:44AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 22, 5:12 AM -> Aug 22, 9:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 5:12AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 22, 5:18 AM -> Aug 22, 8:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 5:18AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 22, 3:07 PM -> Aug 22, 3:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 3:07PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 22, 3:27 PM -> Aug 22, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 3:27PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 22, 3:34 PM -> Aug 22, 3:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 3:34PM EDT until August 22 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 22, 3:37 PM -> Aug 22, 4:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 3:37PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 22, 3:39 PM -> Aug 22, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 3:39PM EDT until August 22 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 22, 4:51 PM -> Aug 22, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 22 at 4:51PM EDT until August 22 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 22, 4:53 PM -> Aug 22, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 22 at 4:53PM EDT until August 22 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 22, 6:20 PM -> Aug 22, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 22 at 6:20PM EDT until August 22 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 22, 6:28 PM -> Aug 22, 7:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 6:28PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 22, 6:31 PM -> Aug 22, 7:15 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 6:31PM EDT until August 22 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 22, 6:38 PM -> Aug 22, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 6:38PM EDT until August 22 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 22, 6:41 PM -> Aug 22, 7:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 22 at 6:41PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 22, 6:47 PM -> Aug 22, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 6:47PM EDT until August 22 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 22, 6:47 PM -> Aug 22, 7:30 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 6:47PM EDT until August 22 at 7:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
70%

Summer Showers Sweep East; Afternoon Clearing for the West

A weak shortwave trough will traverse Kentucky today, bringing a corridor of light stratiform rain and widespread cloud cover. Western regions will see early rain followed by clearing, while Eastern Kentucky sees rain persist through the evening.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in temperatures and precipitation type (rain), but significant model disagreement regarding the western extent of measurable rainfall and localized intensity in the Central/East.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Showers then Sunny
Rain
89°/ 68°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Mainly Dry and Warm
Cloudy
86°/ 66°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Hot with Early Sprinkles
Rain
89°/ 65°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Passing Afternoon Showers
Rain
88°/ 67°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Afternoon Rain Likely
Rain
86°/ 69°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Steady Rain This Afternoon
Rain
85°/ 65°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Cloudy with Light Showers
Rain
84°/ 66°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Gray Saturday with Showers
Rain
81°/ 66°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Afternoon Sprinkles and Light Rain
Rain
84°/ 66°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Showers Arrive Late Today
Rain
81°/ 65°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Steady Rain; Wettest in the State
Rain
85°/ 64°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Evening Rain for the Mountains
Rain
83°/ 65°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The 'Boom' scenario involves the NAM's higher-resolution moisture convergence verifying, particularly along the Muldraugh Escarpment and Northeast mountains, leading to localized rainfall totals exceeding 0.75 inches.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The 'Bust' scenario sees the GFS's subtropical ridge winning out in the west, suppressing the shortwave energy and leaving most of the state with nothing more than sprinkles and overcast skies (Virga).

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Lincoln Trail Bullseye

The NAM predicts a localized 0.66 inch rainfall bullseye over the Lincoln Trail, likely due to mesoscale convergence, while global models show less than 0.10 inches.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

NAM bullseyes in stratiform setups are often overdone; however, terrain lift on the Escarpment warrants a higher total than the global models suggest.

Affected Regions
LINCOLN TRAIL

The Western Dry Slot Dispute

The GFS insists on a bone-dry forecast for the Purchase and Pennyrile regions due to ridge-induced subsidence, while the NAM and Euro suggest a quick-hitting wave of morning light rain.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

The Euro provides the best compromise, capturing the timing of the NAM's shortwave while avoiding the GFS's over-aggressive drying under the ridge periphery.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILESOUTHWEST PENNYRILE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical profile is a standard moist-adiabatic lapse rate with freezing levels exceeding 14,000 feet. No inversions are present, ensuring a purely liquid event.

Thermal Boundary

A weak moisture boundary is currently stalled over the I-65 corridor, expected to push east of I-75 by late afternoon.

Diurnal Trend

Standard diurnal curve, though high temperatures in the East will be suppressed by 3-5 degrees due to persistent cloud cover and evaporative cooling.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A weak surface trough passes between 12z and 18z, marked by a subtle wind shift from southerly to west-southwesterly.

Jet Stream Support

Modest lift is provided by the right exit region of a northern stream jet streak over the Great Lakes.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is providing modest mid-level vorticity, peaking over Northeast Kentucky.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is saturated between 850mb and 500mb in the East; however, large dewpoint depressions in the West early this morning create a virga risk.

Precipitation Character

The rain will be predominantly 'Stratiform' (steady and light) with zero risk of thunderstorms due to a lack of CAPE.

Flooding Context

No flooding risk; ground is receptive to the forecast light totals which are well below flash flood guidance.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

N/A - Surface temperatures are well above 60F statewide.

Crystal Habit

N/A

Road Impact

N/A

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

72% Illumination
Moonrise
5:22 PM
Moonset
1:44 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:18 AM
Sunset
8:39 PM
Civil Dawn
6:51 AM
Civil Dusk
9:06 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:11 AM
Sunset
8:34 PM
Civil Dawn
6:43 AM
Civil Dusk
9:01 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:14 AM
Sunset
8:34 PM
Civil Dawn
6:47 AM
Civil Dusk
9:01 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:09 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM
Civil Dawn
6:42 AM
Civil Dusk
8:57 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
7:05 AM
Sunset
8:29 PM
Civil Dawn
6:37 AM
Civil Dusk
8:57 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:06 AM
Sunset
8:29 PM
Civil Dawn
6:39 AM
Civil Dusk
8:56 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
7:02 AM
Sunset
8:23 PM
Civil Dawn
6:35 AM
Civil Dusk
8:50 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:59 AM
Sunset
8:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:31 AM
Civil Dusk
8:53 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
7:00 AM
Sunset
8:24 PM
Civil Dawn
6:32 AM
Civil Dusk
8:51 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
7:00 AM
Sunset
8:23 PM
Civil Dawn
6:32 AM
Civil Dusk
8:50 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:52 AM
Sunset
8:17 PM
Civil Dawn
6:24 AM
Civil Dusk
8:45 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:56 AM
Sunset
8:17 PM
Civil Dawn
6:29 AM
Civil Dusk
8:45 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.