Friday, August 21
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 21 at 12:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Mostly clear skies, light winds, and lingering low-level moisture are helping areas of valley fog to develop and become dense late tonight. This fog will continue to expand through the night but likely remain the densest in the valleys. Visibilities will be below a quarter of a mile at times in the thickest of the fog. Be sure to slow down and use your low beam headlights when you encounter any fog.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 21 at 12:21AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
The combination of clear sky and light winds this morning has led to areas of locally dense fog developing, with visibility below a quarter of a mile at times. Motorists should use caution if out driving and be prepared for sudden changes in visibilities. Please allow for greater distances between vehicles and do not assume the road ahead is unobstructed. Use low beam headlights, and allow more time to reach your destination safely. The fog is expected to gradually lift and dissipate between 8 and 9 AM this morning.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 21 at 1:04AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
Clear skies and light winds has allowed for dense valley fog to develop. Patchy fog is also possible outside of the valley areas. Visibilities may drop to a quarter of a mile at times. Slow down in fog and use your low beam headlights when driving through areas of fog.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 21 at 5:41AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
Areas of fog will be locally dense through mid morning with visibilities reduced to below a half mile at times. Please use extra caution if traveling this morning and be prepared for changing visibilities.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 21 at 5:42AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
Areas of fog will be locally dense through mid morning with visibilities reduced to below a half mile at times. Please use extra caution if traveling this morning and be prepared for changing visibilities.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 21 at 5:59AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Fog has developed and is dense in some valley locations. This fog will linger during the morning commute. Visibilities will be below a quarter of a mile in some locations and may vary widely over short distances. Slow down, use your low beam headlights when you encounter fog, and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 21 at 5:00PM EDT until August 21 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE West Central Harlan County in southeastern Kentucky...
WHEN Until 800 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 500 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Wallins Creek, Coldiron, Tacky Town, and Molus. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Morning Showers East and South; Dry and Warm Out West
A weak mid-level disturbance will track across the southern and eastern portions of Kentucky today, bringing scattered light rain showers and persistent cloud cover. Western and Northern Kentucky will remain under the influence of high pressure, resulting in mostly sunny skies and seasonable late-summer warmth.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in temperatures and the lack of severe weather; minor uncertainty remains regarding the western extent of light sprinkles and the exact timing of clearing in the east.
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Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful summer day with clear skies and warm temperatures reaching the upper 80s. Winds will be light and the humidity will be manageable.
Northwest Pennyrile
Morning clouds will quickly break for afternoon sun. Temperatures will rise into the mid-to-upper 80s with dry conditions expected throughout the day.
Southwest Pennyrile
A typical late-August day with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will be warm but comfortable, topping out in the mid-80s.
Barren River
Expect some clouds during the morning hours, but these will clear by lunchtime leading to a sunny and warm afternoon.
Louisville Metro
The Louisville metro area will enjoy a mostly sunny day with temperatures reaching the mid-80s. A few morning clouds are possible but will clear out early.
Lincoln Trail
A quiet summer day with sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s. No rain is expected across the region.
Lake Cumberland
Light rain showers are likely during the morning hours. Rainfall will be very light, and clouds will begin to break by the late afternoon with highs in the mid-80s.
Northern Kentucky
A pleasant day for Northern Kentucky with lots of sun and temperatures staying in the mid-80s. Humidity will remain relatively low.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington and the surrounding areas will see a mix of sun and clouds. While a stray sprinkle cannot be ruled out in the morning, most of the day will be dry with highs in the mid-80s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect occasional light rain showers through the morning hours. Clouds will linger into the afternoon, but skies should begin to clear by sunset. Highs will reach the low 80s.
Northeast Kentucky
A mostly gray day with scattered light showers, especially during the late morning and early afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, topping out in the low 80s.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain showers will be most frequent in the mountains today. It will be a humid and mostly cloudy day with light rain totaling around 0.15 inches. Highs will be in the low 80s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If orographic enhancement in the southeast is more efficient and the shortwave slows, rainfall totals could reach 0.25-0.50 inches in the mountains with clouds lingering statewide, keeping highs in the 70s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If mid-level dry air entrainment occurs as suggested by some GFS soundings, the morning rain would dissipate into virga, leaving the state dry with only scattered mid-level clouds and temperatures reaching the upper 80s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Moisture Cutoff
The NAM and Euro suggest a weak surface trough will pull enough moisture west to trigger sprinkles in the Louisville and Pennyrile regions, whereas the GFS maintains a much sharper dry line, keeping everything east of I-75.
Why GFS Wins
GFS often handles the placement of dry surface high pressure more accurately in late-summer patterns; current dewpoint depressions in the west suggest mid-level moisture will struggle to reach the surface.
Orographic Duration
Models disagree on how long light rain persists in the Coalfields. The NAM clears the area by 18Z, while the Euro and GFS suggest upslope flow keeps light rain or drizzle through the evening.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro tends to resolve the lingering effects of weak surface troughs and terrain-trapped moisture better than the faster NAM solutions.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.