Thursday, August 20
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 19 at 8:23PM CDT until August 20 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, including the following areas, Alexander, Gallatin, Hardin, Jackson, Johnson, Massac, Pope, Pulaski, Saline, Union and Williamson, western Kentucky, including the following areas, Ballard, Caldwell, Calloway, Carlisle, Christian, Crittenden, Daviess, Fulton, Graves, Henderson, Hickman, Hopkins, Livingston, Lyon, Marshall, McCracken, McLean, Muhlenberg, Todd, Trigg, Union KY and Webster, and southeast Missouri, including the following areas, Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Mississippi, New Madrid, Perry MO, Ripley, Scott, Stoddard and Wayne MO.
WHEN Until 7 AM CDT Thursday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Training thunderstorms are forecast to produce a swath of very heavy rainfall across portions of our region from late this evening through the overnight. Rainfall rates of at least 2" per hour are possible. A swath of 2 to 5" storm total rainfall may be observed through Thursday morning. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 19 at 9:24PM CDT until August 20 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of northwest and south central Kentucky, including the following counties, in northwest Kentucky, Ohio. In south central Kentucky, Adair, Allen, Barren, Butler, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hart, Logan, Metcalfe, Monroe, Russell, Simpson and Warren.
WHEN Until 7 AM CDT Thursday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - An area of thunderstorms over southern Missouri will move east-southeast overnight. These thunderstorms may train over the same areas and may produce a swath of 2-4 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 19 at 11:51PM CDT until August 20 at 12:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Calloway County in western Kentucky... Graves County in western Kentucky... East Central Hickman County in western Kentucky... Southeastern McCracken County in western Kentucky... Marshall County in western Kentucky... * Until 1245 AM CDT. * At 1151 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from near Barkley Regional Airport to 7 miles north of Fulgham, or along a line from 7 miles west of Lone Oak to 7 miles northeast of Clinton, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and small hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Paducah, Murray, Mayfield, Benton, Calvert City, Reidland, Lone Oak, Sedalia, Lynnville, Fulgham, Wingo, Hardin, Hazel, Brewers, Kirksey, Symsonia, Harris Grove, Fancy Farm, Lowes and Aurora.
Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds. Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Seek shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built structure.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 19 at 11:57PM CDT until August 20 at 6:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
FFWPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Pulaski County in southern Illinois... Ballard County in western Kentucky... Northern Mississippi County in southeastern Missouri... * Until 600 AM CDT Thursday. * At 1157 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Charleston, La Center, Wickliffe, Bertrand, Mounds, Barlow, Mound City, Wyatt, Lovelaceville, Kevil, Olmsted, New Grand Chain, Pulaski, Wilson City and Blandville. This includes the following streams and drainages... Thomas Creek, Little Shawnee Creek, Boar Creek, Stovall Creek, Clanton Creek, Gray Creek, Cane Creek, Humphrey Creek, Saint Johns Diversion Ditch, Mayfield Creek, Mississippi River, Redstone Creek, Stevenson Bayou, Billington Creek, Nasty Creek, Cache River, Mill Creek, Hartline Creek, Humphrey Branch, Buckler Creek, Hess Bayou, Post Creek Cutoff, Gar Creek, Cypress Slough, Hanley Creek, Pulaski Slough, Sugar Creek, Ohio River, Wilson Creek, Hodges Creek and North Cut Ditch.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 20 at 12:01AM CDT until August 20 at 3:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 3 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CHRISTIAN HOPKINS MUHLENBERG TODD THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ELKTON, GREENVILLE, HOPKINSVILLE, AND MADISONVILLE.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 20 at 12:01AM CDT until August 20 at 3:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 3 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ALEXANDER HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI UNION IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 13 COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CRITTENDEN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON MARSHALL MCCRACKEN TRIGG IN MISSOURI THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU CARTER MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID RIPLEY SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BARDWELL, BENTON, BLOOMFIELD, CADIZ, CAIRO, CAPE GIRARDEAU, CHARLESTON, CLINTON, DONIPHAN, EDDYVILLE, ELIZABETHTOWN, GOLCONDA, HICKMAN, JACKSON, JONESBORO, MARBLE HILL, MARION, MAYFIELD, METROPOLIS, MOUND CITY, MURRAY, NEW MADRID, PADUCAH, PIEDMONT, POPLAR BLUFF, PRINCETON, SIKESTON, SMITHLAND, VAN BUREN, VIENNA, AND WICKLIFFE.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 20 at 12:08AM CDT until August 20 at 1:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
SVRPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Calloway County in western Kentucky... Graves County in western Kentucky... East Central Hickman County in western Kentucky... Marshall County in western Kentucky... * Until 115 AM CDT. * At 1208 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from 9 miles southwest of Reidland to near Fulgham, or along a line from 9 miles southwest of Reidland to 7 miles northeast of Fulton, moving southeast at 45 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR FOR THE WARNED AREA.
HAZARD 100 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Mayfield and Fulgham around 1210 AM CDT. Sedalia around 1215 AM CDT. Other locations impacted by the severe thunderstorm include Wingo, Water Valley, Symsonia, Brewers, Kirksey, Harris Grove, Hardin, Hazel, Aurora and New Concord.
Seek shelter now inside an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built structure. These storms are capable of producing widespread destructive winds. Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Seek shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built structure.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 20 at 1:09AM EDT until August 20 at 7:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALLEN BUTLER LOGAN SIMPSON WARREN THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN, ALVATON, BOWLING GREEN, BOYCE, DUNBAR, FLAT ROCK, FOREST SPRINGS, FRANKLIN, LOGANSPORT, MAYNARD, MORGANTOWN, PLANO, PRICES MILL, PROVIDENCE, QUALITY, RICHARDSVILLE, RUSSELLVILLE, AND SCOTTSVILLE.
Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning issued August 20 at 12:12AM CDT until August 20 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
TORPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Calloway County in western Kentucky... Northeastern Graves County in western Kentucky... Southwestern Marshall County in western Kentucky... * Until 100 AM CDT. * At 1212 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles northeast of Mayfield, moving southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD Tornado.
SOURCE Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Benton, Hardin, Brewers and Kirksey.
Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are difficult to observe at night. Take cover now!
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 20 at 12:21AM CDT until August 20 at 12:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 1221 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from over Cairo to over Canalou, or along a line from over Cairo to 11 miles southwest of Sikeston, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Trained spotters reported.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Sikeston, Dexter, Charleston, East Prairie, Cairo, Miner, Wickliffe, Morehouse, Bertrand, Matthews, Essex, Canalou, Wyatt, Anniston, Farrenburg, Hay-Wood City, Blodgett, Baker and Diehlstadt.
Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from windows. These storms have produced damaging winds and are capable of producing large hail.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 20 at 12:21AM CDT until August 20 at 6:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
FFWPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Carlisle County in western Kentucky... Northern Graves County in western Kentucky... * Until 615 AM CDT. * At 1221 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Mayfield, Bardwell, Arlington, Fancy Farm, Lowes and Symsonia.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 20 at 4:15AM CDT until August 20 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Parts of far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and most of western Kentucky.
WHEN Until 7 AM CDT this morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Training thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour will continue to bring areas of flash flooding to the Flood Watch. Some of the flooding could be significant.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 20 at 4:17AM CDT until August 20 at 8:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
FFWPAH The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Marshall County in western Kentucky... * Until 815 AM CDT. * At 417 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Benton, Calvert City, Hardin, Brewers and Aurora.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 20 at 4:59AM CDT until August 20 at 6:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 459 AM CDT, Heavy rainfall has ended across the area but areas of high water will remain possible.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Charleston, La Center, Wickliffe, Bertrand, Mounds, Barlow, Mound City, Wyatt, Lovelaceville, Kevil, Olmsted, New Grand Chain, Pulaski, Wilson City and Blandville.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 20 at 5:00AM CDT until August 20 at 6:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 500 AM CDT, Heavy rain has ended but areas of high water will remain possible through early this morning.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Mayfield, Bardwell, Arlington, Fancy Farm, Lowes and Symsonia.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 20 at 5:16AM CDT until August 20 at 9:15AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 516 AM CDT, Heavy rain has ended but rainfall totals were high enough that areas of flooding are likely across the county early this morning.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Paducah, Lone Oak, Reidland, West Paducah and Barkley Regional Airport.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Widespread Morning Rain with Localized Heavy Totals South
A progressive mid-level shortwave trough will swing through the Commonwealth on Thursday, triggering a broad shield of rain during the morning hours. While the heaviest precipitation will target Southern and Western Kentucky, all regions will see at least some rainfall before a general clearing trend begins in the afternoon. It will remain warm and humid with temperatures primarily in the low 80s.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the presence of the rain shield and its morning timing; however, moderate uncertainty remains regarding the specific placement of convective 'bullseyes' where totals could double the regional average.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a very wet start to Thursday with rain peaking around breakfast time. Rainfall totals will reach around 1.5 inches in many spots. The good news is that the clouds will break quickly by early afternoon, allowing for some sunshine and a humid finish to the day.
Northwest Pennyrile
Rain will move through the Owensboro area primarily before noon. Totals will be around 0.6 inches. Expect the afternoon to remain muggy but mostly dry as the main storm system exits to the east.
Southwest Pennyrile
Heavy rain will arrive overnight and last through the morning. Some localized areas could see around 2 inches of rainfall. Be alert for gusty winds and potential ponding on roads during the morning hours. Skies will begin to clear by late afternoon.
Barren River
Expect a washout during the morning hours in the Bowling Green area. Rainfall totals will be around 1.2 inches. Conditions will stay humid through the afternoon with clouds slowly breaking by sunset.
Louisville Metro
Rain is likely through the morning hours in Louisville. Expect around 0.5 inches of total rainfall. The rain will taper off by lunchtime, but it will remain humid with mostly cloudy skies through much of the afternoon.
Lincoln Trail
Periods of rain are expected throughout the morning hours. Rainfall totals should average around 0.7 inches. Clouds will start to thin out by late afternoon, though a stray shower remains possible until sunset.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will move in later here than in Western Kentucky, peaking around midday. Expect around 0.4 inches of rain. It will be a very humid afternoon with temperatures reaching near 80 degrees.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will be on the edge of the rain shield. Expect scattered light rain with totals around 0.2 inches. Most of the heavy rain will stay to your south, but it will be a grey and humid day.
Inner Bluegrass
Rain will be most likely during the morning and early afternoon in the Lexington area. Expect around 0.3 inches of rain. The clouds will begin to thin out by late afternoon, leaving a humid evening.
Bluegrass Foothills
The hills will squeeze extra moisture out of the air today. Expect rainfall totals around 0.8 inches. Rain will be most persistent during the late morning and early afternoon before tapering off this evening.
Northeast Kentucky
The morning will likely stay dry, with rain moving in for the afternoon hours. Expect around 0.2 inches of rain. Cloudy skies will persist through the evening as the storm system slowly exits.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect rain to move through the mountains during the morning and afternoon. Rainfall totals around 0.8 inches are likely. Localized higher totals are possible on westward-facing slopes due to the wind direction.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the low-level jet maintains its intensity longer than modeled, training convective elements could produce localized rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches across the SW Pennyrile and Barren River regions, leading to minor flash flooding.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the shortwave dampens and shifts south more rapidly, the northern half of the state (Louisville to NKY) could see little more than a few tenths of an inch, with rapid afternoon clearing capping rainfall totals.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Moisture Bullseye Battle
A significant disagreement exists regarding where the highest rainfall totals will land. The NAM focuses a heavy axis (2-3") in Southwestern KY based on low-level jet convergence, while the GFS places its bullseye (1.4") further east in the Bluegrass Foothills due to orographic enhancement.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves shallow moisture transport and low-level jet dynamics better in the 24-36h window. Its projection of heavy morning rain in the southern tier aligns better with the expected position of the theta-e ridge.
The Afternoon Recovery War
The GFS forecasts temperatures to rebound sharply into the upper 80s and low 90s behind the rain, while the Euro and NAM keep conditions cooler in the low 80s.
Why EURO Wins
High soil moisture from morning rain and persistent cloud debris usually limit surface heating in the wake of a morning trough. The GFS is likely over-forecasting the insolation recovery.
Celestial Almanac
First Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.