Wednesday, August 19
Warm and Humid; Showers Focused West
A weak mid-level disturbance will track across the state today, bringing scattered light rain to Western Kentucky while Central and Eastern regions remain largely dry under a mix of sun and clouds.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in temperature ranges and the lack of severe weather; lower confidence in the eastern extent of measurable rainfall due to significant dry air entrainment modeled by the NAM/GFS.
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Purchase Area
Expect a damp day with persistent light rain showers. While not a total washout, you will likely need an umbrella if spending time outdoors. Accumulations will generally be around 0.25 inches.
Northwest Pennyrile
A few light showers will move through during the afternoon hours. Most of the rain will be light and shouldn't impact travel significantly. Accumulations around 0.1 inches expected.
Southwest Pennyrile
Warm and muggy conditions will persist, with light rain showers likely during the afternoon. Total amounts will be very light. Expect less than 0.1 inches of rain.
Barren River
Clouds will dominate the day, but the air is quite dry near the ground, so many of the showers you see on radar may not reach the ground. Rainfall totals will be trace amounts.
Louisville Metro
It will be a warm and gray day in the city. While you may see a few sprinkles during the evening commute, no significant rain is expected. Accumulations around 0.02 inches.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a lot of cloud cover today, but rain chances are very slim. A stray sprinkle is possible but unlikely to dampen the ground. Accumulations of 0 inches.
Lake Cumberland
A nice day overall with a mix of sun and clouds. Humidity will be noticeable, but the rain will stay well to our west. No rain expected.
Northern Kentucky
Cloudy skies will prevail along the Ohio River, but the atmosphere is too dry for any meaningful rain to reach the ground. No measurable rain expected.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington and surrounding areas will see more clouds than sun today, but the rain will likely stay in the clouds. A stray sprinkle is possible but won't last long. No measurable rain expected.
Bluegrass Foothills
A very typical August day with warm temperatures and high humidity. No rain is in the forecast for the foothills. Accumulations of 0 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
A beautiful summer day is expected with plenty of sunshine and very warm temperatures. No rain concerns here. No rain expected.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will stay dry and sunny today. Temperatures will approach 90 degrees in some of the deeper valleys. No rain expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The Euro solution verifies, where the mid-levels saturate quickly enough to overcome the low-level dry air, leading to a widespread 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain across Central and Eastern Kentucky, with up to 0.75 inches in the Purchase area.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The NAM and GFS solutions win, keeping measurable rain confined to the far western counties, while the rest of the state experiences 'Virga'—rain that evaporates before hitting the ground—leaving most residents dry under an overcast sky.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga Verdict
A significant disagreement exists regarding the ability of light precipitation to reach the ground. The Euro forecasts widespread measurable rain, while the NAM and GFS show high probabilities of precipitation (PoP) but zero to trace liquid accumulation due to a dry boundary layer.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's high-resolution thermal profile better resolves the shallow dry layer below 850mb, which is often under-sampled by global models in weak-flow summer regimes.
The Eastern Ridge Holdout
The GFS and NAM keep Eastern Kentucky largely sunny and hot, while the Euro attempts to bring cloud cover and light sprinkles into the mountains by late evening.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS handling of the upper-level ridge over the Appalachians is more consistent with the current synoptic trend of dry air retention in the Coalfields.
Celestial Almanac
First Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.