Tuesday, August 18
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 17 at 3:04PM EDT until August 18 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The Flood Watch includes the Kentucky counties of Estill, Menifee, Powell, Johnson, Martin, Rockcastle, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Jackson, Knott, Lee, Leslie, Letcher, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley, Perry, Pike, and Wolfe.
WHEN Until midnight EDT tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - One or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Where thunderstorms are most persistent, flash flooding could result.
Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flash Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 17 at 6:57PM EDT until August 18 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, southwest Virginia, including the following counties, Buchanan and Dickenson, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Logan, Mason, McDowell, Mingo, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Pocahontas, Northwest Raleigh, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Pocahontas, Southeast Raleigh, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt, Wood and Wyoming.
WHEN Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - The combination of new showers and thunderstorms and a very saturated ground may lead to new flash flooding through late tonight. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 17 at 8:04PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 803 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Kettle Island, or near Pineville, moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD Torrential rainfall and Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Pineville, East Pineville, Wallsend, Varilla, Ponza, Stony Fork Junction, Black Snake, Straight Creek, Blanche, Cary, Cubage, Rella, Fourmile, Clear Creek Springs, Wasioto, Blackmont, Balkan, Liggett, Miracle, and Pathfork. THIS INCLUDES U.S. Highway 25 East in Bell County between mile markers 10 and 17.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 17 at 8:13PM EDT until August 17 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE North Central Letcher County in southeastern Kentucky...
WHEN Until 1015 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 813 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Up to 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Whitesburg, Crown, Tillie, Van, Bellcraft, Marlowe, Southdown, Polly, Whitco, Sackett, Isom, Ice, Trailer, Lester, Lucastown, Colson, Ermine, Colly, Farraday and Sergent. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 17 at 8:25PM EDT until August 18 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in east central Kentucky, Elliott, Estill, Menifee and Powell. In northeast Kentucky, Johnson and Martin. In south central Kentucky, Laurel and Rockcastle. In southeast Kentucky, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Jackson, Knott, Knox, Lee, Leslie, Letcher, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley, Perry, Pike and Wolfe.
WHEN Until midnight EDT tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - One or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Where thunderstorms are most persistent, flash flooding could result. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 17 at 8:35PM EDT until August 17 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE North Central Letcher County in southeastern Kentucky...
WHEN Until 1015 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 833 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Minor flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall is imminent. Additional rain may fall later this evening. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Whitesburg, Crown, Tillie, Van, Bellcraft, Marlowe, Southdown, Polly, Whitco, Sackett, Isom, Ice, Trailer, Lester, Lucastown, Colson, Ermine, Colly, Farraday and Sergent. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Morning Eastern Showers Give Way to a Sunny Afternoon West
A weakening upper-level trough will exit Eastern Kentucky today, maintaining clouds and light showers for the mountains through midday. Meanwhile, high pressure building from the west will ensure clear skies and warm temperatures for the Purchase and Pennyrile regions.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the building high pressure and dry conditions for Western Kentucky. Lower confidence regarding the exact timing of the cloud break in the East and whether morning drizzle will remain measurable.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a beautiful day with wall-to-wall sunshine and light winds. Temperatures will reach the mid-to-upper 80s, making for a perfect summer afternoon.
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunshine will dominate the day with only a few passing clouds. It will be a very pleasant afternoon with temperatures in the mid-80s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Clear skies will allow for plenty of sunshine today. Temperatures will be among the warmest in the state, reaching the mid-to-upper 80s.
Barren River
Any early morning clouds will quickly give way to bright sunshine. It will be a dry and warm day for the Bowling Green area.
Louisville Metro
The morning will feature a mix of sun and clouds, but skies will become mostly sunny by the afternoon. Rain is not expected.
Lincoln Trail
Expect pleasant conditions with a few clouds in the morning followed by plenty of afternoon sun. Highs will be in the lower 80s.
Lake Cumberland
A few light showers or drizzle are possible early this morning. The afternoon will remain mostly cloudy but dry, with highs in the lower 80s.
Northern Kentucky
Clouds will be present during the morning, but sunnier skies will develop for the afternoon. Temperatures will be very seasonable.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect some light morning sprinkles or drizzle. Clouds will gradually break for some afternoon sun as temperatures reach the low 80s.
Bluegrass Foothills
A damp start to the day with scattered light showers. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain showers will be likely during the morning commute. Clouds will stay stubborn for most of the day with clearing delayed until evening.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a damp and grey day with light rain occurring at times through the early afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler due to the cloud cover.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario involves higher-than-forecast rainfall in the Southeast Coalfields (up to 0.25") if orographic lift maximizes the moisture plume, combined with persistent cloud cover keeping highs in the mid-70s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario would see the dry air from the building ridge accelerate eastward faster than modeled, resulting in zero measurable rain and clear skies for the entire state by lunch.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Eastern Temperature Gap
The NAM is significantly cooler (mid-70s) in the Eastern Coalfields due to persistent cloud cover and valley-trapped moisture, while the GFS aggressively clears the region and warms it into the mid-80s.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically handles the resolution of low-level moisture trapping and topographic cloud effects better than the coarser GFS, particularly in the deep valleys of Eastern Kentucky.
Central KY Virga Conflict
The GFS and Euro indicate high PoPs for the Bluegrass but virtually no measurable liquid, suggesting virga or light mist. The NAM is more bullish on light measurable rain (0.01-0.02").
Why BLEND Wins
A blend is preferred here as the dry sub-cloud layer seen in soundings will likely evaporate much of the light morning drizzle before it becomes impactful.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.