Monday, August 17
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Heat Advisory
Heat Advisory issued August 16 at 4:16AM EDT until August 16 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Heat index values up to 109.
WHERE Portions of south central Indiana and east central, north central, northwest, and south central Kentucky.
WHEN Until 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening.
IMPACTS Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 17 at 2:27AM EDT until August 18 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in east central Kentucky, Bath, Elliott, Estill, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell and Rowan. In northeast Kentucky, Johnson and Martin. In south central Kentucky, Laurel and Rockcastle. In southeast Kentucky, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Jackson, Knott, Knox, Lee, Leslie, Letcher, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley, Perry, Pike and Wolfe.
WHEN Through this evening.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - One or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Where thunderstorms are most persistent, flash flooding could result.
Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flash Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 17 at 2:32AM EDT until August 18 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Logan, Mason, Mingo, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Pocahontas, Northwest Raleigh, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Pocahontas, Southeast Raleigh, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt, Wood and Wyoming.
WHEN Through late tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop today. The combination of new showers and thunderstorms and a very saturated ground may lead to new flash flooding through late tonight. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 17 at 5:42AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 542 AM EDT/442 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles northeast of Hardinsburg, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Brandenburg, Hardinsburg, Radcliff, Webster, Vine Grove, Irvington, Muldraugh, West Point, Ekron, and Mcquady.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 17 at 3:04PM EDT until August 18 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE The Flood Watch includes the Kentucky counties of Estill, Menifee, Powell, Johnson, Martin, Rockcastle, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Jackson, Knott, Lee, Leslie, Letcher, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley, Perry, Pike, and Wolfe.
WHEN Until midnight EDT tonight.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - One or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Where thunderstorms are most persistent, flash flooding could result.
Monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flash Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 17 at 6:57PM EDT until August 18 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, southwest Virginia, including the following counties, Buchanan and Dickenson, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Logan, Mason, McDowell, Mingo, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Pocahontas, Northwest Raleigh, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Pocahontas, Southeast Raleigh, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt, Wood and Wyoming.
WHEN Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - The combination of new showers and thunderstorms and a very saturated ground may lead to new flash flooding through late tonight. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Soggy Morning East; Clearing Afternoon Skies West
A moisture-laden system will traverse Kentucky on Monday, bringing widespread rain to the eastern half of the state while western regions see gradual clearing and high humidity.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the presence of rain and humid conditions, but moderate confidence in the exact rainfall totals for Eastern Kentucky due to NAM/GFS disagreement.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a few lingering sprinkles before sunrise, but skies will clear through the morning. The afternoon will be warm and humid with temperatures reaching the upper 80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
Scattered rain showers are likely during the morning hours. Conditions will dry out by the afternoon, though it will remain muggy.
Southwest Pennyrile
A quick morning shower is possible, but most of the day will be dry and cloudy. Highs will climb into the upper 80s.
Barren River
A very humid day is expected with only a small chance for a passing shower. The most likely time for rain will be early morning or late evening.
Louisville Metro
Steady rain will move through during the morning, leading to damp roads. Showers will become more scattered by the afternoon.
Lincoln Trail
Rain is likely through the early afternoon hours before tapering off. It will remain gray and humid throughout the day.
Lake Cumberland
Rain chances will increase throughout the morning, peaking during the afternoon. Expect totals around 0.15 inches.
Northern Kentucky
Steady rain will last for much of the morning with around a half inch possible. Skies stay overcast keeping temperatures cooler than the rest of the state.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect several rounds of rain, particularly during the morning and midday hours. Total rainfall should reach about a quarter of an inch.
Bluegrass Foothills
Showers will be most frequent in the afternoon as the system moves into the hills. Wind gusts up to 25 mph are possible at times.
Northeast Kentucky
Multiple rounds of rain could lead to totals around 0.75 inches. Expect a very soggy day with persistent cloud cover.
Southeast Kentucky
Showers will move in by the afternoon and continue through the evening. Expect around a third of an inch of rainfall.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The NAM solution verifies, where topographical trapping in Eastern Kentucky and stronger jet support lead to localized rainfall totals exceeding 1.5 inches and persistent cloud cover statewide.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The GFS/Euro drier air entrainment occurs faster, limiting rainfall to less than 0.25 inches for most and allowing for sunnier, hotter conditions by mid-day.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Western Kentucky Clearing Trend
Disagreement exists on how quickly the mid-level dry slot moves into Western Kentucky, ending precipitation chances.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles mid-level moisture cutoffs with greater consistency than the GFS 'smear' effect, suggesting a faster end to rain in the Purchase and Pennyrile regions.
The Northeast QPF Divergence
The NAM is forecasting a significant 1.59 inch rainfall bullseye in Northeast Kentucky, while the GFS and Euro remain much more conservative, showing 0.3 to 0.4 inches.
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM likely over-forecasts localized totals due to its 'bullseye' bias, its superior resolution of topographical moisture trapping in the Appalachian foothills warrants a forecast higher than the global models but lower than the NAM outlier.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.