kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sat, Aug 15
Mon, Aug 17
Forecast For

Sunday, August 16

Updated Aug 16, 7:15 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 15, 2:24 PM -> Aug 15, 10:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 15 at 1:24PM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 15, 2:43 PM -> Aug 16, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 15 at 2:43PM EDT until August 16 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 15, 5:38 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 15 at 5:38PM EDT until August 15 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 15, 5:52 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 15 at 5:52PM EDT until August 15 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 15, 5:52 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 15 at 5:52PM EDT until August 15 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 15, 6:41 PM -> Aug 16, 2:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 15 at 6:41PM EDT until August 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Warning

Aug 15, 6:43 PM -> Aug 15, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued August 15 at 6:43PM EDT until August 15 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 15, 6:49 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 15 at 6:49PM EDT until August 15 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 15, 7:16 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 15 at 7:16PM EDT until August 15 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 15, 8:04 PM -> Aug 15, 11:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 15 at 8:04PM EDT until August 15 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 8:09 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 8:09PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 15, 8:11 PM -> Aug 15, 10:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 15 at 8:11PM EDT until August 15 at 10:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 15, 8:16 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 15 at 8:16PM EDT until August 15 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Aug 15, 8:22 PM -> Aug 15, 8:32 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued August 15 at 8:22PM EDT until August 15 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 15, 8:27 PM -> Aug 15, 8:37 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 15 at 8:27PM EDT until August 15 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 8:27 PM -> Aug 15, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 8:27PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 15, 8:28 PM -> Aug 15, 11:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 15 at 8:28PM EDT until August 15 at 11:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 15, 8:29 PM -> Aug 15, 10:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 15 at 8:29PM EDT until August 15 at 10:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 8:58 PM -> Aug 15, 9:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 8:58PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 15, 9:11 PM -> Aug 16, 7:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 15 at 8:11PM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 9:12 PM -> Aug 15, 9:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 9:12PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 9:14 PM -> Aug 15, 9:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 9:14PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 15, 9:57 PM -> Aug 16, 1:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 15 at 9:57PM EDT until August 16 at 1:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 16, 12:17 AM -> Aug 16, 1:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 16 at 12:17AM EDT until August 16 at 1:30AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 16, 12:43 AM -> Aug 16, 8:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 16 at 12:43AM EDT until August 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 16, 1:22 AM -> Aug 16, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 16 at 12:22AM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 16, 3:10 AM -> Aug 16, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 16 at 3:10AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 16, 4:16 AM -> Aug 16, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 16 at 4:16AM EDT until August 16 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 16, 8:07 AM -> Aug 16, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 16 at 8:07AM EDT until August 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Confidence
60%

Sizzling Heat West; Localized Heavy Rain Threat Northeast

A potent combination of high summer heat and tropical moisture will impact Kentucky today. While Western Kentucky swelters under near-triple-digit temperatures, a slow-moving atmospheric disturbance will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the state, with the potential for significant rainfall totals in the Appalachian foothills.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the thermal gradient and presence of heat; low confidence in the exact placement of heavy rain clusters due to the convective nature of the shortwave energy.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Scorching Heat Followed by Late Rain
Rain
96°/ 76°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Muggy and Hot with Scattered Showers
Rain
94°/ 76°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Intense Afternoon Heat
Sunny
97°/ 74°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Sunny and Steamy in Bowling Green
Sunny
95°/ 74°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Stifling Humidity and Evening Rain
Cloudy
94°/ 78°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Hot Day with Passing Clouds
Sunny
93°/ 74°

Lake Cumberland

Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Ideal Lake Weather but Hot
Sunny
93°/ 75°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Cloudy and Damp with Afternoon Showers
Rain
88°/ 74°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Humid with Evening Rain Showers
Rain
92°/ 72°

Bluegrass Foothills

IMPACTFUL
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Gusty Storms Possible Late Today
Heavy_Rain
92°/ 70°

Northeast Kentucky

SEVERE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Significant Rain and Flooding Risk
Heavy_Rain
91°/ 70°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Mountain Showers and Valley Fog
Rain
92°/ 73°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the NAM's aggressive moisture transport verifies, training convective cells could dump 3+ inches of rain in the Northeast, leading to localized flash flooding. Additionally, stronger downward momentum transfer could lead to isolated 45mph+ wind gusts in the Bluegrass Foothills.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the mid-level dry air seen in the GFS overpowers the weak shortwave, rainfall will be limited to spotty, light sprinkles. This would allow the heat ridge to expand further east, pushing temperatures into the mid-90s statewide with no relief from cloud cover.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Western Heat Peak

The Euro and GFS are aggressive with 98-100°F highs in the Purchase and Pennyrile, while the NAM stays cooler (92-94°F) due to higher modeled dew points and afternoon cloud debris.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

The Euro handles the synoptic-scale heat dome and subsidence better than the mesoscale NAM, which often suffers from a 'cool bias' in extreme heat events due to over-evaporation.

Affected Regions
PURCHASESOUTHWEST PENNYRILE

The Northeast Deluge Dispute

The NAM is forecasting a significant 2.43" rainfall bullseye for the Ashland/Morehead area, driven by high-resolution terrain interaction and moisture flux convergence. The GFS and Euro are significantly drier, showing only 0.1" to 0.6" for the same area.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

Inside 48 hours, the NAM's superior resolution of low-level moisture pooling and orographic lift in the Appalachian foothills typically outperforms global models in convective setups.

Affected Regions
NORTHEAST KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A tropical-grade vertical stack is present with surface dew points in the low 70s and 850mb temperatures near +22C. No significant inversions are present, allowing for a standard adiabatic lapse rate and efficient vertical mixing.

Thermal Boundary

A weak moisture boundary is currently stalled along a line from Covington through Richmond and into the Appalachian foothills.

Diurnal Trend

Standard diurnal curve in the west. In the Northeast, a suppressed or non-diurnal curve is expected where persistent cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures from reaching their full potential.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No distinct surface cold front is present, but a weak surface trough will pass through the Bluegrass tonight, marked by a shift to light northwesterly winds.

Jet Stream Support

Moderate lift provided by the right-entrance region of a jet streak centered over the Great Lakes, primarily aiding ascent in the eastern half of KY.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is providing a pulse of positive vorticity advection (PVA) between 18z and 03z.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Deep layer saturation (850mb-500mb) is present in Eastern Kentucky, while Western Kentucky remains dry above the boundary layer until late evening.

Precipitation Character

A mix of convective bursts and stratiform rain. Convective elements will be most common in the Bluegrass and Foothills regions.

Flooding Context

Ground is currently unsaturated, but the risk of training cells in the Northeast creates a localized flash flood threat.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

17% Illumination
Moonrise
11:25 AM
Moonset
10:24 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:13 AM
Sunset
8:46 PM
Civil Dawn
6:45 AM
Civil Dusk
9:14 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:06 AM
Sunset
8:42 PM
Civil Dawn
6:38 AM
Civil Dusk
9:10 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:09 AM
Sunset
8:42 PM
Civil Dawn
6:41 AM
Civil Dusk
9:09 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:04 AM
Sunset
8:38 PM
Civil Dawn
6:37 AM
Civil Dusk
9:05 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:59 AM
Sunset
8:37 PM
Civil Dawn
6:31 AM
Civil Dusk
9:05 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:01 AM
Sunset
8:37 PM
Civil Dawn
6:33 AM
Civil Dusk
9:04 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:57 AM
Sunset
8:31 PM
Civil Dawn
6:29 AM
Civil Dusk
8:58 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:53 AM
Sunset
8:33 PM
Civil Dawn
6:25 AM
Civil Dusk
9:02 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:55 AM
Sunset
8:32 PM
Civil Dawn
6:27 AM
Civil Dusk
9:00 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:54 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM
Civil Dawn
6:27 AM
Civil Dusk
8:58 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:47 AM
Sunset
8:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:18 AM
Civil Dusk
8:53 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:51 AM
Sunset
8:25 PM
Civil Dawn
6:23 AM
Civil Dusk
8:53 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.