kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Fri, Aug 14
Sun, Aug 16
Forecast For

Saturday, August 15

Updated Aug 15, 7:14 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Watch

Aug 14, 3:51 AM -> Aug 14, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 14 at 3:51AM EDT until August 14 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 14, 3:51 AM -> Aug 14, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 14 at 3:51AM EDT until August 14 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 14, 5:25 AM -> Aug 14, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 14 at 4:25AM CDT until August 14 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 14, 11:08 AM -> Aug 15, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 14 at 10:08AM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 14, 12:15 PM -> Aug 15, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 14 at 11:15AM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 14, 12:15 PM -> Aug 15, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 14 at 11:15AM CDT until August 14 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 14, 12:15 PM -> Aug 15, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 14 at 11:15AM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 14, 3:53 PM -> Aug 14, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 14 at 3:53PM EDT until August 14 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 14, 7:48 PM -> Aug 14, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 14 at 7:48PM EDT until August 14 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 14, 8:54 PM -> Aug 15, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 14 at 7:54PM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 14, 8:54 PM -> Aug 15, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 14 at 7:54PM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 14, 8:54 PM -> Aug 15, 6:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 14 at 7:54PM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 15, 12:05 AM -> Aug 15, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 14 at 11:05PM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 15, 2:45 AM -> Aug 15, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 15 at 2:45AM EDT until August 15 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 15, 2:48 AM -> Aug 15, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 15 at 2:48AM EDT until August 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Heat Advisory

Aug 15, 2:49 AM -> Aug 15, 4:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 15 at 2:49AM EDT until August 16 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 3:06 AM -> Aug 15, 12:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 3:06AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 15, 10:54 AM -> Aug 15, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 15 at 10:54AM EDT until August 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Aug 15, 10:54 AM -> Aug 15, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 15 at 10:54AM EDT until August 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 11:26 AM -> Aug 15, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 11:26AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 15, 11:32 AM -> Aug 15, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 15 at 11:32AM EDT until August 15 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 15, 2:24 PM -> Aug 15, 10:30 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 15 at 1:24PM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 15, 2:43 PM -> Aug 16, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 15 at 2:43PM EDT until August 16 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 15, 3:03 PM -> Aug 15, 6:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 15 at 3:03PM EDT until August 15 at 6:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 15, 3:27 PM -> Aug 15, 6:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 15 at 3:27PM EDT until August 15 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 15, 4:16 PM -> Aug 15, 6:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 15 at 4:16PM EDT until August 15 at 6:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 4:25 PM -> Aug 15, 5:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 4:25PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 4:40 PM -> Aug 15, 5:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 4:40PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 15, 5:03 PM -> Aug 15, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 15 at 5:03PM EDT until August 15 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 15, 5:17 PM -> Aug 15, 6:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 15 at 5:17PM EDT until August 15 at 6:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 15, 5:38 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 15 at 5:38PM EDT until August 15 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 5:52 PM -> Aug 15, 6:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 5:52PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 15, 5:52 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 15 at 5:52PM EDT until August 15 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 15, 5:52 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 15 at 5:52PM EDT until August 15 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 5:57 PM -> Aug 15, 6:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 5:57PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 15, 6:41 PM -> Aug 16, 2:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 15 at 6:41PM EDT until August 17 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Warning

Aug 15, 6:43 PM -> Aug 15, 8:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued August 15 at 6:43PM EDT until August 15 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 15, 6:49 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 15 at 6:49PM EDT until August 15 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 6:56 PM -> Aug 15, 7:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 6:56PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Aug 15, 6:56 PM -> Aug 15, 7:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 15 at 6:56PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 15, 7:16 PM -> Aug 15, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 15 at 7:16PM EDT until August 15 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
70%

Heat Wave West, Scattered Storms North and East

A sharp contrast will define Kentucky weather as a weakening cold front stalls over the Ohio River, bringing rain and cooling to the north, while oppressive heat persists in the west.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in extreme heat for Western Kentucky, but significant model disagreement regarding the southern extent of the frontal rain in Central Kentucky leads to lower confidence for the I-65 corridor.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

IMPACTFUL
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Searing Heat and High Sun
Sunny
96°/ 76°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Humid and Partly Cloudy
Cloudy
94°/ 76°

Southwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Hot with a Brief Stray Shower
Sunny
95°/ 75°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Sunny and Very Warm
Sunny
93°/ 76°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Turning Cloudy with Showers
Rain
91°/ 75°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Partly Cloudy and Muggy
Cloudy
92°/ 75°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Damp with Occasional Showers
Rain
89°/ 74°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Steady Rain and Cooler Temps
Rain
88°/ 71°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Gray Skies and Periodic Rain
Rain
89°/ 74°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Periods of Light Rain
Rain
88°/ 73°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Overcast and Damp Conditions
Rain
88°/ 73°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Morning Fog and Afternoon Rain
Rain
87°/ 72°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The cold front pushes further south than anticipated, bringing rain-cooled 70s and 80s as far south as the Bluegrass Parkway and curbing the heat in Louisville.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The boundary remains north of the Ohio River, leaving the entire state under the ridge with heat indices exceeding 100F and only isolated mountain sprinkles.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

Eastern Moisture Plume Reliability

Global models (GFS/Euro) suggest a broad plume of stratiform rain for the eastern half of the state, while the NAM is significantly drier.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

Global models generally capture the scale of mid-level shortwaves and moisture transport better than the NAM's mesoscale focus in summer regimes.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS CORENORTHEAST KYSOUTHEAST COALFIELDS

The Louisville Heat Divide

A major conflict exists for the Louisville Metro. The NAM brings a sharp cold front through by mid-afternoon with heavy rain and a 20-degree temp drop. The GFS keeps the city bone dry and sizzling at 97F.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

The NAM's timing with the surface front is likely too aggressive, but the GFS's total lack of moisture contradicts the incoming shortwave. A compromise leaning toward the Euro's light rain and cloud cooling is most probable.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METROLINCOLN TRAIL

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A stark divide is present: a deeply mixed, hot boundary layer in the west versus a nearly saturated, moist-adiabatic profile in the east. Freezing levels remain exceptionally high, near 14,000ft.

Thermal Boundary

A weak surface boundary is stalled along the Ohio River, transitioning into a moisture gradient near the I-65 corridor.

Diurnal Trend

Non-diurnal for the northern tier where temperatures will peak at midday and fall as rain arrives; standard diurnal heating for the western and southern regions.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

A weak cold front is expected to sag into Northern Kentucky by mid-afternoon (14:00-16:00), marked by a shift to light northerly winds and localized temperature drops.

Jet Stream Support

Upper-level divergence is provided by the right-entrance region of a sub-tropical jet streak positioned across the Great Lakes.

Energy Status

A weak 500mb vorticity maximum is pivoting through the Ohio Valley, providing the lift necessary for precipitation despite low CAPE.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The atmospheric column is saturated in the 850-500mb layer in the east, while dry air remains entrenched below 700mb in the west, creating a 'Virga' risk for the Pennyrile.

Precipitation Character

Predominantly stratiform rain with embedded light showers. Lack of instability will likely prevent lightning and thunder.

Flooding Context

Ground moisture is seasonally average. No flood risk is anticipated as rainfall rates will remain below 0.25 inches per hour.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

10% Illumination
Moonrise
10:21 AM
Moonset
10:00 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:12 AM
Sunset
8:48 PM
Civil Dawn
6:44 AM
Civil Dusk
9:15 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:05 AM
Sunset
8:43 PM
Civil Dawn
6:37 AM
Civil Dusk
9:11 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:08 AM
Sunset
8:43 PM
Civil Dawn
6:40 AM
Civil Dusk
9:10 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:04 AM
Sunset
8:39 PM
Civil Dawn
6:36 AM
Civil Dusk
9:07 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:59 AM
Sunset
8:38 PM
Civil Dawn
6:30 AM
Civil Dusk
9:07 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
7:00 AM
Sunset
8:38 PM
Civil Dawn
6:32 AM
Civil Dusk
9:06 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:56 AM
Sunset
8:32 PM
Civil Dawn
6:28 AM
Civil Dusk
8:59 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:52 AM
Sunset
8:35 PM
Civil Dawn
6:24 AM
Civil Dusk
9:03 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:54 AM
Sunset
8:33 PM
Civil Dawn
6:26 AM
Civil Dusk
9:01 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:54 AM
Sunset
8:32 PM
Civil Dawn
6:26 AM
Civil Dusk
9:00 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:46 AM
Sunset
8:26 PM
Civil Dawn
6:17 AM
Civil Dusk
8:55 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
8:26 PM
Civil Dawn
6:22 AM
Civil Dusk
8:54 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.