kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Thu, Aug 13
Sat, Aug 15
Forecast For

Friday, August 14

Updated Aug 14, 7:13 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Heat Advisory

Aug 13, 1:57 AM -> Aug 13, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 13 at 12:57AM CDT until August 13 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 11:45 AM -> Aug 13, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 11:45AM EDT until August 14 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 13, 11:50 AM -> Aug 14, 3:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 13 at 10:50AM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 12:42 PM -> Aug 13, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 12:42PM EDT until August 14 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 5:19 PM -> Aug 13, 8:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 5:19PM EDT until August 13 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 5:41 PM -> Aug 13, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 5:41PM EDT until August 13 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 5:59 PM -> Aug 14, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 5:59PM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 5:59 PM -> Aug 14, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 5:59PM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 6:53 PM -> Aug 13, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 6:53PM EDT until August 13 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 6:54 PM -> Aug 13, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 6:54PM EDT until August 13 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 6:58 PM -> Aug 13, 9:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 6:58PM EDT until August 13 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 6:58 PM -> Aug 13, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 6:58PM EDT until August 13 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 8:04 PM -> Aug 13, 11:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 8:04PM EDT until August 13 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 8:21 PM -> Aug 13, 11:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 8:21PM EDT until August 13 at 11:15PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 8:41 PM -> Aug 14, 4:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 8:41PM EDT until August 14 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 9:22 PM -> Aug 14, 12:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 9:22PM EDT until August 14 at 12:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 9:26 PM -> Aug 13, 11:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 9:26PM EDT until August 13 at 11:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 9:39 PM -> Aug 13, 11:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 9:39PM EDT until August 13 at 11:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 10:04 PM -> Aug 14, 12:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 10:04PM EDT until August 14 at 12:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 10:16 PM -> Aug 14, 1:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 10:16PM EDT until August 14 at 1:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 10:22 PM -> Aug 14, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 10:22PM EDT until August 14 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 10:39 PM -> Aug 13, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 10:39PM EDT until August 13 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 10:40 PM -> Aug 13, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 10:40PM EDT until August 13 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 10:42 PM -> Aug 13, 11:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 10:42PM EDT until August 13 at 11:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 10:48 PM -> Aug 14, 12:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 10:48PM EDT until August 14 at 12:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 11:11 PM -> Aug 14, 1:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 11:11PM EDT until August 14 at 1:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 13, 11:40 PM -> Aug 14, 12:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 13 at 11:40PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 13, 11:42 PM -> Aug 14, 12:30 AM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 13 at 11:42PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 14, 12:13 AM -> Aug 14, 2:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 14 at 12:13AM EDT until August 14 at 2:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 14, 12:25 AM -> Aug 14, 2:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 14 at 12:25AM EDT until August 14 at 2:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Warning

Aug 14, 12:35 AM -> Aug 14, 3:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued August 14 at 12:35AM EDT until August 14 at 3:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Warning

Aug 14, 12:38 AM -> Aug 14, 3:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued August 14 at 12:38AM EDT until August 14 at 3:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 14, 2:12 AM -> Aug 14, 2:22 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 14 at 2:12AM EDT until August 14 at 2:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 14, 2:55 AM -> Aug 14, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 14 at 1:55AM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 14, 3:13 AM -> Aug 14, 11:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 14 at 3:13AM EDT until August 14 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Warning

Aug 14, 3:18 AM -> Aug 14, 6:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued August 14 at 3:18AM EDT until August 14 at 6:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 14, 3:24 AM -> Aug 14, 6:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 14 at 3:24AM EDT until August 14 at 6:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 14, 3:51 AM -> Aug 14, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 14 at 3:51AM EDT until August 14 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 14, 3:51 AM -> Aug 14, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 14 at 3:51AM EDT until August 14 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 14, 4:08 AM -> Aug 14, 12:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 14 at 4:08AM EDT until August 14 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Heat Advisory

Aug 14, 5:25 AM -> Aug 14, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 14 at 4:25AM CDT until August 14 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 14, 10:57 AM -> Aug 14, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 14 at 10:57AM EDT until August 14 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 14, 11:08 AM -> Aug 15, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 14 at 10:08AM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 14, 12:15 PM -> Aug 15, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 14 at 11:15AM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 14, 12:15 PM -> Aug 15, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 14 at 11:15AM CDT until August 14 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 14, 12:15 PM -> Aug 15, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 14 at 11:15AM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 14, 3:53 PM -> Aug 14, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 14 at 3:53PM EDT until August 14 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 14, 5:08 PM -> Aug 14, 7:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 14 at 5:08PM EDT until August 14 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 14, 6:40 PM -> Aug 14, 7:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 14 at 6:40PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 14, 6:59 PM -> Aug 14, 7:14 PM
Minor Severity

The Flood Watch has been cancelled.

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 14, 7:48 PM -> Aug 14, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 14 at 7:48PM EDT until August 14 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
70%

A Commonwealth Divided: Extreme Heat West, Heavy Rain East

Kentucky will experience a sharp meteorological contrast this Friday. While western regions swelter under intense heat and sunshine, a slow-moving moisture axis will trigger heavy downpours and localized flooding across the eastern mountains.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence exists regarding the heavy rain in the East and the heat in the West. The primary uncertainty lies in the exact western boundary of the precipitation shield, which currently appears to stall near the I-75 corridor.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Sweltering Heat and Sunny Skies
Sunny
94°/ 76°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Hot and Humid Friday
Sunny
92°/ 74°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Intense Heat for the Borderlands
Sunny
94°/ 75°

Barren River

Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Mainly Dry and Muggy
Cloudy
92°/ 74°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Sticky and Overcast Urban Heat
Cloudy
91°/ 76°

Lincoln Trail

Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Breezy and Humid with Clouds
Cloudy
91°/ 74°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Afternoon Showers Possible
Rain
89°/ 75°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Steady Rain Showers
Rain
85°/ 72°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Lexington's Damp Afternoon
Rain
88°/ 73°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Showers in the Rugged Terrain
Rain
88°/ 71°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Heavy Rain and Localized Flooding
Heavy_Rain
86°/ 70°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Evening Storms and Downpours
Heavy_Rain
87°/ 70°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The moisture axis shifts further west than expected, bringing the heavy rain corridor into the I-65/Louisville area, providing heat relief but introducing a flash flood threat to urban centers.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The western ridge proves more dominant, pushing the rain shield entirely out of the state into West Virginia, leaving the entire Commonwealth dry, humid, and dangerously hot.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Western Moisture War

The Euro model attempts to bring light rain and drizzle into Western Kentucky, whereas the NAM and GFS keep the region bone-dry under high pressure.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why GFS Wins

The GFS and NAM correctly resolve the suppression from the 500mb ridge. The Euro typically over-saturates the boundary layer in the low-levels during summer ridge patterns, leading to 'phantom' light precip.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILESOUTHWEST PENNYRILE

The Heat Intensity Dispute

The GFS is an outlier forecasting a high of 96°F for Louisville, while the NAM and Euro suggest upper 80s due to cloud debris.

GFS
VS
NAM
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

While the ridge is strong, the proximity of the eastern trough will likely result in enough blow-over cirrus and mid-level clouds to prevent Louisville from reaching the mid-90s, though it will remain very humid.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METROLINCOLN TRAIL

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

Deep tropical airmass with moist-adiabatic lapse rates in the east and a capped, subsident profile in the west. Freezing levels are extremely high, exceeding 12,000 feet.

Thermal Boundary

A moisture and thermal gradient is established along a line from Covington to Bowling Green.

Diurnal Trend

Standard diurnal heating in the west; suppressed diurnal range in the east due to persistent cloud cover and evaporative cooling from rain.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No significant frontal passage. The setup is driven by a stalled surface trough and mesoscale shortwaves.

Jet Stream Support

Upper-level divergence from a 110kt jet streak is providing the primary lifting mechanism for the eastern rain bands.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough is pivoting through the eastern coalfields, maximizing vorticity after 18Z.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is fully saturated (PWAT > 1.9") in the east, while the west remains dry in the mid-levels.

Precipitation Character

Stratiform rain with embedded convective cores in the east; dry conditions in the west.

Flooding Context

Ground moisture is moderate, but high rain rates in the Northeast and Southeast could lead to localized flash flooding in steep terrain.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

4% Illumination
Moonrise
9:15 AM
Moonset
9:34 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:11 AM
Sunset
8:49 PM
Civil Dawn
6:43 AM
Civil Dusk
9:17 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:04 AM
Sunset
8:44 PM
Civil Dawn
6:36 AM
Civil Dusk
9:12 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:07 AM
Sunset
8:44 PM
Civil Dawn
6:39 AM
Civil Dusk
9:12 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:03 AM
Sunset
8:40 PM
Civil Dawn
6:35 AM
Civil Dusk
9:08 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:58 AM
Sunset
8:40 PM
Civil Dawn
6:29 AM
Civil Dusk
9:08 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:59 AM
Sunset
8:39 PM
Civil Dawn
6:31 AM
Civil Dusk
9:07 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:55 AM
Sunset
8:33 PM
Civil Dawn
6:27 AM
Civil Dusk
9:01 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:51 AM
Sunset
8:36 PM
Civil Dawn
6:23 AM
Civil Dusk
9:05 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:53 AM
Sunset
8:34 PM
Civil Dawn
6:25 AM
Civil Dusk
9:02 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:53 AM
Sunset
8:33 PM
Civil Dawn
6:25 AM
Civil Dusk
9:01 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:45 AM
Sunset
8:28 PM
Civil Dawn
6:16 AM
Civil Dusk
8:56 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:49 AM
Sunset
8:28 PM
Civil Dawn
6:21 AM
Civil Dusk
8:55 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.