kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Wed, Aug 12
Fri, Aug 14
Forecast For

Thursday, August 13

Updated Aug 13, 7:17 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Watch

Aug 12, 2:42 AM -> Aug 13, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 12 at 2:42AM EDT until August 13 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 12, 2:42 AM -> Aug 13, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 12 at 2:42AM EDT until August 13 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 12, 8:44 AM -> Aug 13, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 12 at 8:44AM EDT until August 13 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 12, 8:44 AM -> Aug 13, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 12 at 8:44AM EDT until August 13 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 12, 9:17 AM -> Aug 12, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 12 at 9:17AM EDT until August 12 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Aug 12, 1:01 PM -> Aug 12, 9:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 12 at 1:01PM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 12, 2:11 PM -> Aug 13, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 12 at 1:11PM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 12, 2:11 PM -> Aug 13, 5:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 12 at 1:11PM CDT until August 13 at 11:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Aug 12, 4:47 PM -> Aug 13, 1:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 12 at 4:47PM EDT until August 13 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 12, 4:47 PM -> Aug 13, 1:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 12 at 4:47PM EDT until August 13 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 12, 6:11 PM -> Aug 12, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 12 at 5:11PM CDT until August 12 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 12, 6:36 PM -> Aug 12, 9:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 12 at 6:36PM EDT until August 12 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 12, 7:06 PM -> Aug 12, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 12 at 7:06PM EDT until August 12 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 12, 7:21 PM -> Aug 12, 10:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 12 at 7:21PM EDT until August 12 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 12, 7:48 PM -> Aug 12, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 12 at 7:48PM EDT until August 12 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 12, 8:22 PM -> Aug 12, 11:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 12 at 8:22PM EDT until August 12 at 11:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 12, 8:24 PM -> Aug 12, 10:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 12 at 8:24PM EDT until August 12 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 12, 8:38 PM -> Aug 12, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 12 at 8:38PM EDT until August 12 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 12, 8:52 PM -> Aug 13, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 12 at 8:52PM EDT until August 14 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Aug 12, 9:10 PM -> Aug 13, 5:15 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 12 at 9:10PM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Advisory

Aug 12, 9:14 PM -> Aug 12, 11:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 12 at 9:14PM EDT until August 12 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 12, 9:28 PM -> Aug 12, 11:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 12 at 9:28PM EDT until August 12 at 11:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 12, 9:34 PM -> Aug 12, 10:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 12 at 8:34PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 12, 9:35 PM -> Aug 12, 10:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 12 at 9:35PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 12, 9:40 PM -> Aug 12, 10:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 12 at 9:40PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 13, 1:57 AM -> Aug 13, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 13 at 12:57AM CDT until August 13 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 13, 3:46 AM -> Aug 13, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 13 at 2:46AM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 4:18 AM -> Aug 13, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 4:18AM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 4:50 AM -> Aug 13, 1:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 4:50AM EDT until August 14 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 7:10 AM -> Aug 13, 10:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 7:10AM EDT until August 13 at 10:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 7:55 AM -> Aug 13, 6:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 7:55AM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 8:35 AM -> Aug 13, 11:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 8:35AM EDT until August 13 at 11:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 9:13 AM -> Aug 13, 11:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 9:13AM EDT until August 13 at 11:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 11:45 AM -> Aug 13, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 11:45AM EDT until August 14 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Extreme Heat Warning

Aug 13, 11:50 AM -> Aug 14, 3:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued August 13 at 10:50AM CDT until August 16 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 12:42 PM -> Aug 13, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 12:42PM EDT until August 14 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Aug 13, 4:40 PM -> Aug 13, 5:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 13 at 4:40PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 13, 4:48 PM -> Aug 13, 5:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 13 at 4:48PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 5:19 PM -> Aug 13, 8:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 5:19PM EDT until August 13 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 13, 5:41 PM -> Aug 13, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 13 at 5:41PM EDT until August 13 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 5:59 PM -> Aug 14, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 5:59PM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 13, 5:59 PM -> Aug 14, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 13 at 5:59PM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 13, 6:45 PM -> Aug 13, 7:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 13 at 6:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 6:53 PM -> Aug 13, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 6:53PM EDT until August 13 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 13, 6:54 PM -> Aug 13, 7:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 13 at 6:54PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 6:54 PM -> Aug 13, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 6:54PM EDT until August 13 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 6:58 PM -> Aug 13, 9:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 6:58PM EDT until August 13 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 13, 6:58 PM -> Aug 13, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 13 at 6:58PM EDT until August 13 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 13, 7:01 PM -> Aug 13, 7:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 13 at 7:01PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 13, 7:07 PM -> Aug 13, 7:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 13 at 7:07PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Confidence
70%

Western Rain Clusters and Humid Afternoon Showers

A decaying complex of storms will bring heavy rain to Western Kentucky this morning, while a stalled boundary and high tropical moisture trigger scattered showers elsewhere later today.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in the warm and muggy thermal profile, but significant model disagreement exists regarding the track and survival of the western convective remnants.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

IMPACTFUL
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Heavy Rain, Humid Afternoon
Heavy_Rain
92°/ 76°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Significant Morning Rainfall
Heavy_Rain
89°/ 73°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Humid with Passing Showers
Rain
93°/ 75°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Muggy with Scattered Light Rain
Rain
88°/ 75°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Cloudy with Evening Showers
Rain
88°/ 72°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Damp and Humid Day
Rain
85°/ 71°

Lake Cumberland

NUISANCE
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Showers and Muggy Conditions
Rain
83°/ 71°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Cooler and Damp
Rain
84°/ 67°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Rain Increasing by Evening
Rain
86°/ 70°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Cloudy with Damp Conditions
Rain
84°/ 70°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Evening Rain for the Valleys
Rain
84°/ 66°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Humid with Afternoon Mountain Showers
Rain
83°/ 69°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The morning MCS maintains its integrity further east, bringing 1-2 inches of rain as far as the I-65 corridor before noon.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The western ridge suppresses the MCS early, leaving the state mostly dry with only localized, nuisance-level afternoon sprinkles.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Western MCS Showdown

NAM predicts a significant convective cluster with over 2 inches of rain in the Pennyrile, while the Euro remains nearly dry, favoring a building ridge.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

NAM typically resolves mesoscale convective remnants and their associated low-level jet support better than global models within a 24-hour window.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILESOUTHWEST PENNYRILE

Evening Precipitation Timing

GFS focuses the heaviest central/eastern rain in the evening, whereas the Euro suggests a more persistent, light stratiform rain throughout the day.

GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

High humidity and weak forcing suggest a mix of steady light rain and more vigorous evening pulses as shortwave energy arrives.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METROBLUEGRASS CORENORTHEAST KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A standard tropical profile with a moist-adiabatic lapse rate and no significant inversions. Freezing levels are exceptionally high, near 14,000ft.

Thermal Boundary

A diffuse surface boundary is stalled roughly along the Ohio River, drifting slowly south through the day.

Diurnal Trend

Mostly diurnal, though cloud cover and precipitation will suppress afternoon highs in the west and north.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No formal frontal passage; the primary trigger is a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) drifting through the lower Ohio Valley.

Jet Stream Support

The jet stream remains well to the north, providing only marginal upper-level divergence over Northern Kentucky.

Energy Status

Vorticity is concentrated in the west early (MCS) and shifts to a compact shortwave pivoting into the Bluegrass by evening.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Highly saturated in the lower levels (surface to 700mb) statewide; limited dry slotting present only in the far east early on.

Precipitation Character

A mix of heavy convective clusters in the west during the morning and broad stratiform rain with embedded showers in the east.

Flooding Context

Minimal flood risk due to the progressive nature of the rain, though localized urban ponding is possible under heavier western clusters.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

1% Illumination
Moonrise
8:07 AM
Moonset
9:06 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:10 AM
Sunset
8:50 PM
Civil Dawn
6:42 AM
Civil Dusk
9:18 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:03 AM
Sunset
8:45 PM
Civil Dawn
6:35 AM
Civil Dusk
9:14 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:06 AM
Sunset
8:45 PM
Civil Dawn
6:38 AM
Civil Dusk
9:13 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:02 AM
Sunset
8:41 PM
Civil Dawn
6:34 AM
Civil Dusk
9:09 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:57 AM
Sunset
8:41 PM
Civil Dawn
6:28 AM
Civil Dusk
9:09 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:58 AM
Sunset
8:40 PM
Civil Dawn
6:30 AM
Civil Dusk
9:08 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:54 AM
Sunset
8:34 PM
Civil Dawn
6:26 AM
Civil Dusk
9:02 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
8:37 PM
Civil Dawn
6:22 AM
Civil Dusk
9:06 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:52 AM
Sunset
8:35 PM
Civil Dawn
6:24 AM
Civil Dusk
9:04 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:52 AM
Sunset
8:34 PM
Civil Dawn
6:24 AM
Civil Dusk
9:02 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:44 AM
Sunset
8:29 PM
Civil Dawn
6:15 AM
Civil Dusk
8:57 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:48 AM
Sunset
8:29 PM
Civil Dawn
6:20 AM
Civil Dusk
8:57 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.