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Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Mon, Aug 10
Wed, Aug 12
Forecast For

Tuesday, August 11

Updated Aug 11, 7:17 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Watch

Aug 10, 12:35 PM -> Aug 10, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 10 at 12:35PM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Aug 10, 1:04 PM -> Aug 11, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 10 at 1:04PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Heat Advisory

Aug 10, 1:15 PM -> Aug 11, 8:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 10 at 12:15PM CDT until August 13 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Aug 10, 1:28 PM -> Aug 10, 9:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 10 at 1:28PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 10, 1:35 PM -> Aug 11, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 10 at 1:35PM EDT until August 11 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 10, 7:54 PM -> Aug 11, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 10 at 7:54PM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Aug 10, 9:20 PM -> Aug 11, 6:45 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 10 at 9:20PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Aug 11, 1:53 AM -> Aug 11, 5:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 11 at 12:53AM CDT until August 13 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 2:09 AM -> Aug 11, 11:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 2:09AM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 3:35 AM -> Aug 11, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 3:35AM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 4:12 AM -> Aug 11, 12:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 4:12AM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 4:12 AM -> Aug 11, 12:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 4:12AM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Heat Advisory

Aug 11, 4:30 AM -> Aug 11, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 11 at 4:30AM EDT until August 11 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 4:37 AM -> Aug 11, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 4:37AM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 4:45 AM -> Aug 11, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 4:45AM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 4:45 AM -> Aug 11, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 4:45AM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 8:41 AM -> Aug 11, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 8:41AM EDT until August 11 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 11:37 AM -> Aug 11, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 11:37AM EDT until August 11 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 11:37 AM -> Aug 11, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 11:37AM EDT until August 11 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Heat Advisory

Aug 11, 11:47 AM -> Aug 12, 8:15 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 11 at 10:47AM CDT until August 13 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 11, 11:58 AM -> Aug 11, 12:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 11 at 11:58AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 12:00 PM -> Aug 11, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 12:00PM EDT until August 11 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 12:00 PM -> Aug 11, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 12:00PM EDT until August 11 at 2:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 12:05 PM -> Aug 11, 8:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 12:05PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Aug 11, 12:07 PM -> Aug 11, 12:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 11 at 12:07PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 11, 12:21 PM -> Aug 11, 12:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 11 at 12:21PM EDT until August 11 at 12:45PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 12:41 PM -> Aug 11, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 12:41PM EDT until August 11 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 1:21 PM -> Aug 11, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 1:21PM EDT until August 11 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 1:47 PM -> Aug 11, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 1:47PM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Aug 11, 2:13 PM -> Aug 11, 2:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 11 at 2:13PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 11, 2:19 PM -> Aug 11, 2:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 11 at 2:19PM EDT until August 11 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 2:39 PM -> Aug 11, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 2:39PM EDT until August 11 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Heat Advisory

Aug 11, 2:57 PM -> Aug 11, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued August 11 at 2:57PM EDT until August 11 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 3:25 PM -> Aug 12, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 3:25PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 3:38 PM -> Aug 12, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 3:38PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 3:38 PM -> Aug 12, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 3:38PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 11, 3:49 PM -> Aug 11, 6:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 11 at 3:49PM EDT until August 11 at 6:45PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Aug 11, 4:19 PM -> Aug 11, 7:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 11 at 4:19PM EDT until August 11 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 4:29 PM -> Aug 11, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 4:29PM EDT until August 11 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 4:29 PM -> Aug 11, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 4:29PM EDT until August 11 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 4:31 PM -> Aug 11, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 4:31PM EDT until August 11 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 4:31 PM -> Aug 11, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 4:31PM EDT until August 11 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 11, 5:01 PM -> Aug 11, 5:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 11 at 5:01PM EDT until August 11 at 5:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 5:01 PM -> Aug 11, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 5:01PM EDT until August 11 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 5:01 PM -> Aug 11, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 5:01PM EDT until August 11 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Tornado Warning

Aug 11, 5:03 PM -> Aug 11, 5:45 PM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Warning issued August 11 at 5:03PM EDT until August 11 at 5:45PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 11, 5:06 PM -> Aug 11, 5:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 11 at 5:06PM EDT until August 11 at 5:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 11, 5:06 PM -> Aug 11, 8:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 11 at 5:06PM EDT until August 11 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 11, 5:09 PM -> Aug 11, 8:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 11 at 5:09PM EDT until August 11 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 11, 5:11 PM -> Aug 11, 6:30 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 11 at 5:11PM EDT until August 11 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 11, 5:14 PM -> Aug 11, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 11 at 5:14PM EDT until August 11 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Aug 11, 5:21 PM -> Aug 11, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 11 at 5:21PM EDT until August 11 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Tornado Warning

Aug 11, 5:25 PM -> Aug 11, 5:45 PM
Extreme Severity

Tornado Warning issued August 11 at 5:25PM EDT until August 11 at 5:45PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Aug 11, 5:25 PM -> Aug 11, 6:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 11 at 5:25PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 11, 6:41 PM -> Aug 11, 9:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 11 at 6:41PM EDT until August 11 at 9:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 11, 6:49 PM -> Aug 11, 9:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 11 at 6:49PM EDT until August 11 at 9:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 11, 6:55 PM -> Aug 11, 10:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 11 at 6:55PM EDT until August 11 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 11, 7:02 PM -> Aug 11, 10:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 11 at 7:02PM EDT until August 11 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 7:04 PM -> Aug 12, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 7:04PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 7:12 PM -> Aug 12, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 7:12PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 7:12 PM -> Aug 12, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 7:12PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Aug 11, 7:12 PM -> Aug 12, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued August 11 at 7:12PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 11, 7:23 PM -> Aug 11, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 11 at 7:23PM EDT until August 11 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 11, 7:33 PM -> Aug 11, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 11 at 7:33PM EDT until August 11 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 11, 7:34 PM -> Aug 11, 10:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 11 at 7:34PM EDT until August 11 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Aug 11, 7:45 PM -> Aug 11, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 11 at 7:45PM EDT until August 11 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 11, 7:45 PM -> Aug 11, 10:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 11 at 7:45PM EDT until August 11 at 10:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 11, 7:47 PM -> Aug 11, 10:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 11 at 7:47PM EDT until August 11 at 10:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 11, 7:57 PM -> Aug 11, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 11 at 7:57PM EDT until August 11 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
70%

Sharp Cold Front Brings Heavy Rain and Dramatic Cooling

A powerful late-summer cold front will sweep across the Commonwealth today. Residents should prepare for a dramatic transition as triple-digit heat potential gives way to widespread rain and a sharp 20-degree temperature drop.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in a frontal passage and temperature drop; however, significant model spread regarding the western extent of precipitation and localized heavy rain bullseyes reduces overall certainty.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Hot with Late Evening Showers
Rain
92°/ 72°

Northwest Pennyrile

IMPACTFUL
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Rain and a Sharp Afternoon Cool-down
Rain
92°/ 71°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Gusty and Humid with Light Rain
Rain
92°/ 67°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Evening Rain and Cooling Winds
Rain
91°/ 68°

Louisville Metro

IMPACTFUL
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Heavy Afternoon Rain; Temps Plummet
Heavy_Rain
91°/ 71°

Lincoln Trail

IMPACTFUL
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Rainy Afternoon with Gusty Winds
Rain
86°/ 69°

Lake Cumberland

IMPACTFUL
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Heavy Rain and Significant Cooldown
Heavy_Rain
90°/ 65°

Northern Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Covington, Florence, Independence
Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds
Heavy_Rain
88°/ 68°

Inner Bluegrass

IMPACTFUL
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Steady Rain for the Bluegrass
Rain
86°/ 67°

Bluegrass Foothills

IMPACTFUL
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Showers and Cooler Evening Air
Rain
87°/ 66°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Heavy Evening Rain and High Heat
Heavy_Rain
93°/ 66°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Afternoon Showers in the Valleys
Rain
89°/ 64°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The front slows over the Eastern Coalfields, allowing for convective training and rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches, leading to localized flash flooding.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The front moves faster and more 'anaerobically,' limiting precipitation to a narrow band of light rain and leaving western Kentucky largely dry.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Afternoon Thermal Cliff

Models disagree on the timing of the frontal passage, which determines whether Louisville and Lexington hit the mid-90s or stay in the 80s.

NAM
VS
GFS
Why NAM Wins

The NAM handles high-resolution frontal boundaries and shallow cold air advection with superior accuracy inside 24 hours.

Affected Regions
LOUISVILLE METROBLUEGRASS CORENORTHERN KY

The Western Drought Dispute

The GFS keeps the Purchase and Pennyrile regions entirely dry under a persistent ridge, while the NAM and ECMWF bring a band of rain through the entire state.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

The NAM and Euro agree on the moisture plume coverage, but the GFS correctly identifies the weakening forcing on the western flank. I have opted for a light-precipitation solution for the west.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILESOUTHWEST PENNYRILE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

A standard adiabatic lapse rate exists ahead of the front, transitioning to a sharp low-level inversion with significant cooling below 850mb post-passage.

Thermal Boundary

The cold front enters western KY at 12Z, crosses the I-65 corridor by 18Z, and exits the Southeast Coalfields near 03Z.

Diurnal Trend

Strongly non-diurnal. Peak temperatures occur in the morning or early afternoon, followed by a rapid 15-25 degree drop immediately following the rain.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

Confirmed by a 180-degree wind shift from south to northwest with gusts up to 35mph.

Jet Stream Support

Right-entrance region of a 110kt jet streak provides enhanced vertical lift across central and eastern regions.

Energy Status

A compact shortwave trough with high absolute vorticity is pivoting through the state.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is saturated from the surface to 400mb during peak passage; high PWATs suggest efficient rainfall.

Precipitation Character

Primarily stratiform with embedded convective bursts; heavy rain is likely in central and northern areas.

Flooding Context

Ground is currently average, but high rainfall rates (1.0"/hr) may cause urban ponding.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Crescent

2% Illumination
Moonrise
5:42 AM
Moonset
--:--
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:08 AM
Sunset
8:52 PM
Civil Dawn
6:41 AM
Civil Dusk
9:20 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:01 AM
Sunset
8:48 PM
Civil Dawn
6:33 AM
Civil Dusk
9:16 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
7:04 AM
Sunset
8:48 PM
Civil Dawn
6:37 AM
Civil Dusk
9:15 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
7:00 AM
Sunset
8:44 PM
Civil Dawn
6:32 AM
Civil Dusk
9:12 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:55 AM
Sunset
8:43 PM
Civil Dawn
6:26 AM
Civil Dusk
9:12 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:56 AM
Sunset
8:43 PM
Civil Dawn
6:28 AM
Civil Dusk
9:11 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:52 AM
Sunset
8:36 PM
Civil Dawn
6:25 AM
Civil Dusk
9:04 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:48 AM
Sunset
8:40 PM
Civil Dawn
6:19 AM
Civil Dusk
9:09 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
8:38 PM
Civil Dawn
6:22 AM
Civil Dusk
9:06 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
8:36 PM
Civil Dawn
6:22 AM
Civil Dusk
9:05 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
8:31 PM
Civil Dawn
6:13 AM
Civil Dusk
9:00 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:47 AM
Sunset
8:31 PM
Civil Dawn
6:19 AM
Civil Dusk
8:59 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.