Monday, August 10
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Heat Advisory
Heat Advisory issued August 10 at 12:50AM CDT until August 13 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Heat index values of 103 to 109 degrees.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN Until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Thursday.
IMPACTS Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heat index values will remain elevated near 100 degrees Friday into next weekend.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 10 at 12:35PM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, southwest Virginia, including the following counties, Buchanan and Dickenson, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Logan, Mason, McDowell, Mingo, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Pocahontas, Northwest Raleigh, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Pocahontas, Southeast Raleigh, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt, Wood and Wyoming.
WHEN Through Friday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A series of systems are expected to traverse the area, each bringing potential for heavy downpours and training storms which may cause flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 10 at 12:48PM EDT until August 10 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 554 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LEWIS IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO ADAMS HIGHLAND PIKE ROSS SCIOTO THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAMP DIX, CHILLICOTHE, GREENFIELD, HEAD OF GRASSY, HILLSBORO, MANCHESTER, PEEBLES, PIKE LAKE, PIKETON, PORTSMOUTH, SEAMAN, TOLLESBORO, VANCEBURG, WAVERLY, WEST UNION, WHEELERSBURG, AND WINCHESTER.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 10 at 12:51PM EDT until August 10 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 554 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY BOYD CARTER GREENUP LAWRENCE IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO ATHENS GALLIA JACKSON LAWRENCE MEIGS VINTON WASHINGTON IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 29 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA BRAXTON CALHOUN CLAY GILMER JACKSON NICHOLAS ROANE TAYLOR WEBSTER IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BARBOUR DODDRIDGE HARRISON LEWIS PLEASANTS POCAHONTAS RANDOLPH RITCHIE TYLER UPSHUR WIRT WOOD IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA BOONE FAYETTE KANAWHA LINCOLN PUTNAM IN WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA CABELL MASON WAYNE THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ALUM CREEK, ASHLAND, ATHENS, BELINGTON, BELMONT, BELPRE, BRIDGEPORT, BUCKHANNON, BURNSVILLE, CANNONSBURG, CARTER CAVES STATE PARK, CEREDO, CHARLESTON, CLARKSBURG, CLAY, COWEN, CRAIGSVILLE, ELIZABETH, ELKINS, FAYETTEVILLE, FLATWOODS, GALLIPOLIS, GASSAWAY, GLENVILLE, GRAFTON, GRANTSVILLE, GRAYSON, GRAYSON LAKE STATE PARK, HAMDEN, HAMLIN, HARRISVILLE, HARTS, HOLLY RIVER STATE PARK, HUNTINGTON, HURRICANE, IRONTON, JACKSON, KENOVA, LAKE VESUVIUS, LOUISA, MADISON, MARIETTA, MARLINTON, MCARTHUR, MIDDLEBOURNE, NEW HAVEN, OAK HILL, OAK HILL, OLIVE HILL, PADEN CITY, PARKERSBURG, PENNSBORO, PHILIPPI, POINT PLEASANT, POMEROY, RACELAND, RAVENSWOOD, RICHWOOD, RIPLEY, RUSSELL, SAINT ALBANS, SISTERSVILLE, SOUTH CHARLESTON, SOUTH POINT, SPENCER, ST. MARYS, SUMMERSVILLE, SUTTON, TEAYS VALLEY, VIENNA, WAYNE, WEBSTER SPRINGS, WELLSTON, WEST UNION, WESTON, AND YATESVILLE LAKE STATE PARK.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 10 at 1:04PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following counties, Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Union and Wayne, Kentucky, including the following counties, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Pendleton and Robertson, and Ohio, including the following counties, Adams, Auglaize, Brown, Butler, Champaign, Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Darke, Delaware, Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Hardin, Highland, Hocking, Licking, Logan, Madison, Mercer, Miami, Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto, Shelby, Union and Warren.
WHEN Through Wednesday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected with the potential for storms to repeatedly track over the same locations. This will result in the potential for flash flooding.
People in the watch area should keep an eye on the weather and be prepared for immediate action should heavy rains and flooding occur or a Flash Flood Warning be issued. Avoid low-lying areas and be careful when approaching highway dips and underpasses.
Heat Advisory
Heat Advisory issued August 10 at 12:15PM CDT until August 13 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Maximum daily heat index values up to near 110 degrees.
WHERE All of southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois excepting Perry County IL, where a Warning is in effect.
WHEN Until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Thursday.
IMPACTS Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Daily heat index values will remain elevated near or above 100 degrees thru the remainder of the week.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 10 at 1:28PM EDT until August 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in east central Kentucky, Elliott, Fleming and Rowan. In northeast Kentucky, Johnson and Martin. In southeast Kentucky, Floyd, Magoffin, Morgan and Pike.
WHEN From 5 PM EDT this afternoon through Wednesday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - A series of systems are expected to traverse the area, each bringing potential for heavy downpours and training storms which may cause flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Heat Advisory
Heat Advisory issued August 10 at 1:35PM EDT until August 11 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Heat index values up to 106 expected.
WHERE In Indiana, Dubois and Perry Counties. In Kentucky, Hancock, Ohio, Allen, Butler, Logan, Simpson, and Warren Counties.
WHEN From noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ Tuesday.
IMPACTS Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 10 at 2:44PM EDT until August 10 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 554 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA FAYETTE UNION WAYNE IN SOUTHEAST INDIANA DEARBORN FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 11 COUNTIES IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY BOONE BRACKEN CAMPBELL CARROLL GALLATIN GRANT KENTON MASON OWEN PENDLETON ROBERTSON IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 27 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN HOCKING LICKING MADISON PICKAWAY UNION IN SOUTHWEST OHIO BROWN BUTLER CLERMONT CLINTON HAMILTON WARREN IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AUGLAIZE CHAMPAIGN CLARK DARKE GREENE HARDIN LOGAN MERCER MIAMI MONTGOMERY PREBLE SHELBY THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERDEEN, ADA, ALEXANDRIA, AUGUSTA, AURORA, BATESVILLE, BEAVERCREEK, BELLEFONTAINE, BELLEVUE, BLANCHESTER, BRIGHT, BROOKSVILLE, BROOKVILLE, BURLINGTON, BUTLER, CAMDEN, CARROLLTON, CELINA, CIRCLEVILLE, COLDWATER, CONNERSVILLE, COVINGTON, CRITTENDEN, DAY HEIGHTS, DAYTON, DELAWARE, DILLSBORO, DOWNTOWN CINCINNATI, DOWNTOWN COLUMBUS, DOWNTOWN DAYTON, DRY RIDGE, EATON, ERLANGER, FAIRBORN, FAIRFIELD, FALMOUTH, FLORENCE, FORT THOMAS, FRANKLIN, GEORGETOWN, GREENDALE, GREENVILLE, HAMILTON, HIDDEN VALLEY, HIGHLAND HEIGHTS, INDEPENDENCE, KENTON, KETTERING, LANCASTER, LANDEN, LAWRENCEBURG, LEBANON, LIBERTY, LOGAN, LONDON, MARYSVILLE, MASON, MAYSVILLE, MIDDLETOWN, MILAN, MILFORD, MINSTER, MOUNT CARMEL, MOUNT OLIVET, MOUNT ORAB, MOUNT REPOSE, MULBERRY, NEW BREMEN, NEWARK, NEWPORT, OAKBROOK, OSGOOD, OWENTON, OXFORD, PICKERINGTON, PIQUA, PLAIN CITY, RICHMOND, RIPLEY, RISING SUN, SIDNEY, SPRINGBORO, SPRINGFIELD, ST. MARYS, SUMMERSIDE, TIPP CITY, TROY, URBANA, VERSAILLES, VEVAY, WAPAKONETA, WARSAW, WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE, WEST COLLEGE CORNER, WEST JEFFERSON, WILLIAMSTOWN, WILMINGTON, WITHAMSVILLE, AND XENIA.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued August 10 at 2:44PM EDT until August 10 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 554 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LEWIS IN OHIO THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO ADAMS HIGHLAND PIKE ROSS SCIOTO THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CAMP DIX, CHILLICOTHE, GREENFIELD, HEAD OF GRASSY, HILLSBORO, MANCHESTER, PEEBLES, PIKE LAKE, PIKETON, PORTSMOUTH, SEAMAN, TOLLESBORO, VANCEBURG, WAVERLY, WEST UNION, WHEELERSBURG, AND WINCHESTER.
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued August 10 at 7:54PM EDT until August 14 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible.
WHERE Portions of northeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Boyd, Carter, Greenup and Lawrence, southeast Ohio, including the following counties, Athens, Gallia, Jackson OH, Lawrence OH, Meigs, Morgan, Perry, Vinton and Washington, southwest Virginia, including the following counties, Buchanan and Dickenson, and West Virginia, including the following counties, Barbour, Boone, Braxton, Cabell, Calhoun, Clay, Doddridge, Gilmer, Harrison, Jackson WV, Kanawha, Lewis, Lincoln, Logan, Mason, McDowell, Mingo, Northwest Fayette, Northwest Nicholas, Northwest Pocahontas, Northwest Raleigh, Northwest Randolph, Northwest Webster, Pleasants, Putnam, Ritchie, Roane, Southeast Fayette, Southeast Nicholas, Southeast Pocahontas, Southeast Raleigh, Southeast Randolph, Southeast Webster, Taylor, Tyler, Upshur, Wayne, Wirt, Wood and Wyoming.
WHEN Through Friday morning.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Rounds of thunderstorms will track through the area, bringing the potential for heavy downpours and training storms, which may cause flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Additional information can be found at https://www.weather.gov/rlx as well as on our X and Facebook pages.
Cold Front to Bring Widespread Rain and Temperature Drop
A potent cold front will sweep across Kentucky on Monday, ending the recent heat wave with widespread rain showers and a sharp drop in temperatures, particularly in western and central regions.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high that a front will move through, but the GFS outlier status on precipitation creates uncertainty regarding the exact rainfall totals.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a hot start to the day with temperatures reaching the low 90s before rain moves in by midday. Rainfall totals will be around 0.25 inches as a front pushes through.
Northwest Pennyrile
Rain will be heavy at times this afternoon with accumulations around 0.75 inches. Temperatures will fall significantly once the rain begins.
Southwest Pennyrile
A soggy afternoon is expected with roughly 0.60 inches of rain. The humidity will drop by evening as cooler air arrives.
Barren River
Rain showers will move through during the afternoon, bringing roughly 0.20 inches of rain and relief from the morning heat.
Louisville Metro
Rain will impact the afternoon drive with totals around 0.30 inches. Temperatures will settle into the 70s as the rain persists.
Lincoln Trail
Expect rain showers and gusty winds this afternoon. Accumulations will be near 0.35 inches with much cooler air arriving by sunset.
Lake Cumberland
Light rain is expected this afternoon with totals around 0.10 inches. It will remain warm and humid until late evening.
Northern Kentucky
A damp day is in store with light rain and persistent clouds. Total rainfall will be around 0.15 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Showers will arrive in Lexington late today, totaling roughly 0.15 inches. Fresher air will move in by the evening.
Bluegrass Foothills
Rain will move through the foothills by late afternoon, with around 0.25 inches expected. It will stay warm until the rain arrives.
Northeast Kentucky
Rain will be light and scattered this evening, with totals around 0.05 inches. Most of the day will be dry but cloudy.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect rain to develop late this afternoon and evening, totaling around 0.50 inches. Humidity will remain high through the night.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the moisture plume fully couples with the frontal forcing as the NAM suggests, western and southern Kentucky could see rainfall totals exceeding 1.5 inches with a dramatic 25-degree temperature drop in the afternoon.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The GFS scenario: The ridge holds firm, the shortwave shears out to the north, and Kentucky remains dry and sweltering with temperatures in the mid-90s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Eastern KY Moisture Cutoff
Models disagree on how much moisture reaches the Northeast and Southeast Coalfields before the front slows down.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro maintains the moisture plume further east than the NAM, which often 'dries out' systems too quickly in complex terrain.
The Frontal Disconnect
A major disagreement exists regarding the existence of a cold front. The NAM and Euro show a sharp boundary and widespread rain, while the GFS predicts a dry, barotropic ridge with record heat.
Why BLEND Wins
The GFS is likely suffering from a dry bias given the consensus between the NAM and Euro regarding the shortwave trough's progression. However, the NAM's high rainfall totals appear as typical mesoscale outliers, so a blend with the Euro's more moderate rain totals is preferred.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.