Sunday, August 9
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 8 at 7:49PM EDT until August 8 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of south central and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in south central Kentucky, Laurel. In southeast Kentucky, Knox.
WHEN Until 1000 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Some low-water crossings may become impassable. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 749 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Lynn Camp, McHargue, Gray, Bertha Station, Rossland, Moore Hill, Lily, North Corbin, Dorthae and Corbin.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Heat Advisory
Heat Advisory issued August 9 at 12:29AM CDT until August 12 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Heat index values of 100 to 108 expected.
WHERE Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
WHEN From noon CDT /1 PM EDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Wednesday.
IMPACTS Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Peak heat index values will be closer to 100 degrees today. Dangerous heat and humidity may also extend into Thursday depending on the timing of a cold front.
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 9 at 5:28AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Patchy fog has developed with a few areas seeing locally dense fog at times. The dense fog will result in visibilities briefly dropping as low as one-quarter mile at times. If traveling early this morning, remember to slow down, use your low-beam headlights and allow extra time to reach your destination.
August Heat West; Scattered Humid Showers East
A typical late-summer pattern will split the state on Sunday. Hot and mostly dry conditions will dominate Western Kentucky, while a weak mid-level trough brings scattered light rain and high humidity to Central and Eastern regions.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the overall temperature pattern and the presence of rain in the east; however, timing of specific shortwave pulses and localized rainfall totals remains moderately uncertain.
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Purchase Area
A very warm and dry day is expected for the far west. Highs will reach the upper 80s under mostly sunny skies with high humidity.
Northwest Pennyrile
Temperatures will push 90 degrees today. While clouds will increase in the afternoon, no rain is expected for the Owensboro area.
Southwest Pennyrile
A brief morning shower is possible, but the afternoon will turn sunny and warm with highs in the upper 80s.
Barren River
Expect a warm day with highs near 88. A few light rain showers are possible late in the evening as a weak disturbance arrives.
Louisville Metro
The metro area will be the state's warm spot. Highs will reach the low 90s with a noticeable evening breeze.
Lincoln Trail
A bright and warm day is expected. Winds will pick up in the afternoon with gusts over 20 mph possible.
Lake Cumberland
Rain is likely throughout the day, especially this afternoon and evening. Around a quarter-inch of rain is expected.
Northern Kentucky
Expect a very humid day with rain showers in the morning. Temperatures will reach 90 degrees as clouds break in the afternoon.
Inner Bluegrass
A morning shower is possible around Lexington, followed by a warm and windy afternoon with gusts reaching 25 mph.
Bluegrass Foothills
A cloudy day is expected with occasional light rain showers. Temperatures will be held in the mid-80s by the cloud cover.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect several rounds of rain today. Around 0.4 inches of rainfall is possible, with humid conditions persisting tonight.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will move into the mountains this afternoon. It will be a muggy day with temperatures dropping once the rain arrives.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If orographic lift maximizes the deep-layer moisture in the east, localized rainfall totals could exceed 0.75 inches in the Northeast Coalfields, while the Western heat index approaches 100 degrees.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level dry slot in the GFS verifies more aggressively, rainfall in the east may be reduced to simple drizzle or virga, leaving much of the state dry but still very muggy.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Northern Kentucky Thermal Peak
The GFS is an aggressive outlier forecasting 93 degrees for the Cincinnati/Northern KY metro, whereas the NAM and Euro suggest persistent cloud cover will hold temperatures in the upper 80s.
Why BLEND Wins
While the GFS likely overestimates solar insolation, the high dew points will prevent significant cooling, making a 90-degree compromise the most probable outcome.
The Northeast QPF Discrepancy
NAM predicts nearly 0.50 inches of rain for Northeast Kentucky driven by high-resolution orographic lift, while the GFS and Euro show less than 0.10 inches with a much drier mid-level profile.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM handles localized terrain-induced precipitation and low-level moisture convergence better than the global models in weak-flow summer regimes.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.