Saturday, August 8
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 7 at 5:14PM EDT until August 7 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Northeastern Bracken County in northern Kentucky... Northwestern Mason County in northern Kentucky... Northern Adams County in south central Ohio... Southern Brown County in southwestern Ohio... South Central Clermont County in southwestern Ohio...
WHEN Until 815 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 514 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Georgetown, Peebles, Ripley, Augusta, Winchester, Seaman, Higginsport, Decatur, Russellville, Dover, Cherry Fork, State Route 32 at US Route 62, Redoak, Lake Waynoka, Dunkinsville, South Ripley, May Hill and Stoney Point.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. To report flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 8 at 12:57PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 1256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles west of Scottsville, moving southeast at 5 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Scottsville, Allen Springs, West Fork, Yesse, Mcelroy Ford, Halifax, Chapel Hill, Red Hill, Gainesville, and Pope.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 8 at 1:28PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 128 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles south of Memphis Junction. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Franklin, Woodburn, Matlock, Hillsdale, Trammel, Salmons, Boyce, Clare, Mcelroy Ford, and Mount Aerial.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 8 at 1:43PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 143 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles north of Portland. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Franklin, Hillsdale, Black Jack, Clare, Geddes, Mcelroy Ford, Alonzo, Pope, Butlersville, and Trammel.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 8 at 2:42PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 241 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Fulgham to near Lynnville. Movement was north at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Mayfield, Fulton, Clinton, Cayce, Lynnville, Fulgham, Sedalia, Wingo, Hardin, Water Valley, Lowes, Fancy Farm, Kirksey, Brewers, Dukedom, and Harris Grove. This includes Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 1 and 34.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 8 at 3:10PM CDT until August 8 at 6:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Southwestern Logan County in south central Kentucky... Southwestern Simpson County in south central Kentucky...
WHEN Until 615 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 310 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Adairville, Schochoh, Hilltop, Prices Mill, Middleton, Schley, Neosheo, Dot and Schweizer. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 8 at 3:14PM CDT until August 8 at 6:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Southeastern Allen County in south central Kentucky... Monroe County in south central Kentucky...
WHEN Until 615 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 314 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Tompkinsville, Gamaliel, Fountain Run, Emberton, Freetown, Gum Tree, Jeffrey, Flippin, Mud Lick and Bugtussle. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 8 at 3:37PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Eddyville to 6 miles northwest of Mayfield to Cayce. Movement was northwest at 5 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Paducah, Mayfield, Benton, Calvert City, Clinton, Hillman Ferry Campground, Reidland, Birmingham Ferry Recreation Area, Demumbers Bay Campground, Cravens Bay Campground, Land Between The Lakes Area, Cayce, Ledbetter, Fulgham, Lovelaceville, Kuttawa, Grand Rivers, Arlington, Lowes, and Fancy Farm. This includes the following highways... Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 9 and 40, and between Mile Markers 48 and 51. Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 17 and 19, between Mile Markers 23 and 27, between Mile Markers 34 and 40, and between Mile Markers 42 and 51.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 8 at 4:14PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Nortonville to 7 miles northwest of Crofton. These storms were nearly stationary.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Dawson Springs, Nortonville, Weir, Greenville, White Plains, and St. Charles. This includes the following highways... Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 94 and 106. Western Kentucky Parkway between Mile Markers 39 and 40. Pennyrile Parkway between Mile Markers 24 and 34.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 8 at 4:59PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 459 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Columbia, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Columbia, Russell Springs, Christine, Gadberry, Absher, Webbs Cross Roads, Royville, Sano, Garlin, and Fairplay.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 8 at 7:49PM EDT until August 8 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Portions of south central and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in south central Kentucky, Laurel. In southeast Kentucky, Knox.
WHEN Until 1000 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Some low-water crossings may become impassable. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 749 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Lynn Camp, McHargue, Gray, Bertha Station, Rossland, Moore Hill, Lily, North Corbin, Dorthae and Corbin.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Summer Heat Paired with Scattered Evening Thunderstorms
A warm and muggy summer air mass will dominate the state, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. While western Kentucky remains mostly dry, a weak shortwave trough will trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms across central and northern Kentucky, primarily during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in regional heat and humidity, but lower confidence in the precise coverage and intensity of afternoon storms due to significant model disagreement on rainfall totals.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A typical hot summer day is expected with plenty of sunshine and high humidity. While a stray cloud may pass by, the region will remain dry.
Northwest Pennyrile
Conditions will remain warm and humid with more clouds than the west, but rain is not expected to develop.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect a hot day followed by a brief passing shower during the late afternoon. Total rainfall will be very light, around 0.03 inches.
Barren River
A damp day with overcast skies and light rain showers passing through. Total rainfall will be around 0.15 inches.
Louisville Metro
It will be a hot and sultry day with highs near 90. Heavy storms are expected to move through this evening, with around 0.41 inches of rain likely.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a breezy and muggy day. While it will be mostly cloudy, rain chances remain low with only light passing showers possible.
Lake Cumberland
A hot day at the lake with rain showers arriving during the evening. Expect around 0.23 inches of rainfall by tonight.
Northern Kentucky
Temperatures will reach the low 90s before heavy evening storms move through. Rainfall will total around 0.44 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see a gray, muggy day with scattered showers increasing this evening. Expect about 0.22 inches of rain.
Bluegrass Foothills
Scattered rain showers are likely during the afternoon and evening hours, with totals around 0.10 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
A hot and muggy day for the northeast with passing showers throughout the afternoon. Expect around 0.08 inches of rain.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will stay humid and warm with light rain showers likely by sunset, totaling around 0.08 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level cap erodes faster and moisture maximizes as the NAM suggests, we could see widespread heavy rainfall amounts approaching 1 inch in the Metro areas, leading to localized urban drainage issues.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level dry air seen in GFS soundings entrains into the system, storm development will be suppressed, resulting in only scattered light sprinkles and virga across the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Western Kentucky Dry Line
The Euro brings 80% PoPs into the Purchase area, while the NAM and GFS keep conditions entirely dry with high pressure influence.
Why GFS Wins
The Euro exhibits a known bias for over-forecasting light precipitation coverage (smearing) in the presence of weak forcing; the drier NAM/GFS solution aligns better with the observed subsidence in the west.
Convective Intensity Conflict
The NAM suggests localized heavy rain bursts up to 1 inch due to better resolution of pulse convection, whereas the GFS and Euro favor a much lighter, stratiform rain character with totals under 0.15 inches.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's higher resolution typically captures the pulse-style nature of summer convection and localized moisture convergence more accurately than global models which tend to smear precipitation too thinly.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.