Friday, August 7
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 6:42PM EDT until August 6 at 9:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following county, Letcher.
WHEN Until 945 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Overflowing poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 642 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Ehkhorn Mine and Deane.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 7:06PM EDT until August 6 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Harlan and Letcher.
WHEN Until 1015 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 706 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Whitesburg, Cumberland, Lynch, Benham, Blair, Linefork, Partridge, Lewis Creek, Clutts, Flint, Maggard, Kings Creek, Kingdom Come S.P., Defeated Creek, Clover, Skyline, Gordon, Big Black Mountain, Lilley Cornett Woods and Rock House.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 7:11PM EDT until August 6 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, McCreary and Whitley.
WHEN Until 1015 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 711 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Williamsburg, Bounty, Duckrun, Krupp, Redbird, Bon and Liberty.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 7:22PM EDT until August 6 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following county, Elliott.
WHEN Until 1030 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 722 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Culver and Isonville.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 6 at 7:39PM EDT until August 6 at 10:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
FFWJKL The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... East Central Elliott County in east central Kentucky... * Until 1045 PM EDT. * At 739 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... mainly rural areas of East Central Elliott County
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 6:51PM CDT until August 6 at 9:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Clinton County in south central Kentucky...
WHEN Until 945 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 651 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Albany, Cannons Mill, Upchurch, Snow, Cartwright, Bug, Savage, Marlow, Wago and Nora. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 7:53PM EDT until August 6 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following county, Laurel.
WHEN Until 1100 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 753 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... London, Maplesville, Langnau and Crawford.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 6 at 8:10PM EDT until August 6 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 810 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Siler, Gatliff, Carpenter and Goins.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 8:12PM EDT until August 6 at 11:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following county, McCreary.
WHEN Until 1115 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 812 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Honeybee.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 6 at 7:18PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 718 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Naomi. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Jabez and Vinnie.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 6 at 8:20PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 819 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms over Naomi, or 10 miles north of Monticello. These storms were nearly stationary.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Somerset, Science Hill, Naomi, Betsey, Frazer, Pulaski County Park, Nancy, Kidder, Pointer, Mill Springs, Faubush, and Trimble. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... Kentucky Highway 80 in Pulaski County between mile markers 17 and 20. Louis B. Nunn Parkway
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. If on or near Lake Cumberland, get out of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 8:37PM EDT until August 6 at 11:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, Pulaski and Wayne.
WHEN Until 1145 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 837 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Faubush, Naomi and Nancy.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 6 at 7:49PM CDT until August 6 at 10:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
FFWLMK The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... East Central Russell County in south central Kentucky... * Until 1045 PM CDT. * At 749 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Jabez and Vinnie.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 8:51PM EDT until August 7 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Knott, Letcher and Perry.
WHEN Until midnight EDT tonight.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 851 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.1 to 0.2 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Vicco, Smithsboro, Sassafras, Wiscoal, Cody, Gander, Anco, Carr Creek and Carcassonne.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 6 at 8:51PM EDT until August 7 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
FFWJKL The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southwestern Pulaski County in south central Kentucky... North Central Wayne County in south central Kentucky... * Until midnight EDT tonight. * At 851 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Naomi.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 6 at 9:09PM EDT until August 6 at 10:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 909 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... mainly rural areas of East Central Elliott County
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 6 at 9:14PM EDT until August 7 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
FFWJKL The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Central Pulaski County in south central Kentucky... * Until midnight EDT tonight. * At 914 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Somerset, Science Hill, Elihu, Ruth, Somerset Pulaski Airport, Dabney, Shopville, Grade, Bent, Pulaski County Park, Valley Oak, Dykes, Trimble and Ferguson.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 6 at 9:31PM EDT until August 7 at 12:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
FFWJKL The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Central Harlan County in southeastern Kentucky... * Until 1245 AM EDT. * At 931 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Cranks, Black Mountain, Kenvir, Crummies and Dizney.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 6 at 9:34PM EDT until August 7 at 12:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
FFWJKL The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southeastern Jackson County in southeastern Kentucky... * Until 1230 AM EDT. * At 934 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Zekes Point, Tyner, Herd, Mildred, Privett, Mummie, Egypt, Maulden, Welchburg, Gray Hawk, Settle Store, Olin, Atkinstown, Nathanton, Elian and Annville.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 6 at 8:50PM CDT until August 6 at 10:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 850 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2.5 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall is expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Jabez and Vinnie.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 7 at 4:31PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
At 431 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Ripley, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to vegetation. Locations impacted include... Maysville, Georgetown, Ripley, Aberdeen, Augusta, Decatur, Russellville, Dover, Higginsport, Minerva, Redoak, South Ripley, Tuckahoe, and Stoney Point. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 7 at 5:14PM EDT until August 7 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Northeastern Bracken County in northern Kentucky... Northwestern Mason County in northern Kentucky... Northern Adams County in south central Ohio... Southern Brown County in southwestern Ohio... South Central Clermont County in southwestern Ohio...
WHEN Until 815 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 514 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Georgetown, Peebles, Ripley, Augusta, Winchester, Seaman, Higginsport, Decatur, Russellville, Dover, Cherry Fork, State Route 32 at US Route 62, Redoak, Lake Waynoka, Dunkinsville, South Ripley, May Hill and Stoney Point.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. To report flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 7 at 6:40PM EDT until August 7 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
SVRRLX The National Weather Service in Charleston West Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Boyd County in northeastern Kentucky... Southeastern Greenup County in northeastern Kentucky... Central Carter County in northeastern Kentucky... South central Gallia County in southeastern Ohio... Southern Lawrence County in southeastern Ohio... Northwestern Wayne County in western West Virginia... * Until 715 PM EDT. * At 640 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Greenup to Olive Hill, moving east at 35 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Ashland, Ironton, Grayson, Coal Grove, Olive Hill, Cannonsburg, Lake Vesuvius, Kenova, Catlettsburg, Ceredo, Greenup, Princess, Coalton, Denton, Greenbo Lake, Oldtown, Naples, Rush, Flatwoods, and South Point. This includes the following highways... Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 159 and 191. Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 2.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Sultry Summer Heat with Scattered Light Showers
Kentucky will see a typical humid summer day with temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. A weak upper-level disturbance will bring scattered light rain showers, though a dry layer near the ground will likely evaporate much of the moisture before it reaches the surface, especially in western and central areas.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the presence of an upper-level disturbance; moderate confidence in how much rainfall actually reaches the surface due to dry air at the ground level.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
The far western portion of Kentucky will likely stay dry today. Expect plenty of sunshine with a few afternoon clouds and highs reaching the 90-degree mark.
Northwest Pennyrile
A warm and humid day is on tap for the region. While some clouds will move through, rain is unlikely to reach the ground.
Southwest Pennyrile
The day will be mostly hot and humid. A stray light shower or sprinkle could occur late in the evening as a weak disturbance passes.
Barren River
Expect a mix of sun and clouds for the Bowling Green area. Highs will reach the upper 80s with very high humidity levels.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will see plenty of clouds today, but most of the rain will stay in the clouds. A few drops are possible, but significant rainfall is not expected.
Lincoln Trail
Clouds will be thickest during the morning hours with a small chance for a brief shower. The afternoon will be mostly dry and very humid.
Lake Cumberland
A few light rain showers are possible throughout the day. Rainfall totals will be very low, and it will remain warm with highs in the upper 80s.
Northern Kentucky
Expect periods of light rain today, especially in the afternoon and evening. While it won't be a washout, you may need the windshield wipers at times.
Inner Bluegrass
The Lexington area will see occasional light rain or sprinkles. Cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly lower than the western part of the state.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect light rain showers to move through the area in several waves. High humidity will make the 86-degree temperatures feel quite warm.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland and Morehead will see the most frequent rain in the state today. Expect a damp day with persistent clouds and light rain totals around a quarter inch.
Southeast Kentucky
Showers will move into the southeastern mountains later in the day. Cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the mid-80s, cooler than the rest of the state.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the low-level moisture overcomes the dry layer as suggested by the ECMWF, Kentucky could see a widespread 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain, providing relief from the heat but increasing local humidity significantly.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the mid-level cap holds and the sub-cloud dry layer persists, many areas will see nothing more than high clouds and a few isolated sprinkles, with temperatures pushing into the mid-90s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Afternoon Highs Dispute
The GFS and NAM forecast highs in the low 90s, while the wetter/cloudier ECMWF keeps the state in the mid-80s.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS logic regarding the dry sub-cloud layer suggests more solar insolation will reach the surface than the ECMWF expects.
The Saturation Struggle
The ECMWF shows a deeply saturated column capable of widespread light rain, whereas the NAM and GFS show a significant dry layer at the surface (virga risk).
Why BLEND Wins
A blend is necessary as the ECMWF likely over-forecasts moisture in a non-frontal setup, but the GFS/NAM may be too aggressive with the dry air in the eastern regions where terrain aids lift.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.