Thursday, August 6
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 5:12PM EDT until August 5 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Southeastern Casey County in central Kentucky... Lincoln County in central Kentucky...
WHEN Until 815 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Liberty, Stanford, Crab Orchard, Hustonville, South Fork, Kings Mountain, New Salem, Walltown, Geneva and Waynesburg. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 5:25PM EDT until August 5 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Southeastern Garrard County in central Kentucky... Southeastern Madison County in central Kentucky...
WHEN Until 830 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 525 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Richmond, Berea, Kingston, Whites, Terrill, Dreyfus, Speedwell, Bighill, Duluth and Slate Lick. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 7:09PM EDT until August 5 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Clay and Knox.
WHEN Until 1015 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 709 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Salt Gum, Mills, Scalf, Ice Cliff, Brightshade, Walker, Ashers Fork, Lipps and Dewitt.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 7:23PM EDT until August 5 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following county, Pike.
WHEN Until 1015 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 721 PM EDT, The public reported minor flooding along Rocky Road in Millard. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain has fallen after thunderstorms moved across across the advisory area. - Additional light rainfall is ongoing over the advisory area. This additional rain will allow minor flooding to persist or worsen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Millard, Fishtrap Lake, Marrowbone, Garden Village, Phyllis, Shelbiana and Kimper.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 8:47PM EDT until August 6 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Letcher and Perry.
WHEN Until midnight EDT tonight.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Overflowing poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 847 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Letcher, Blackey, Hallie, Banks, Ulvah, Bluefield, Red Star, Cornettsville, Daisy, Lilley Cornett Woods, Arminta, Elko, Slemp, Delphia, Gander, Carcassonne and Indian Bottom.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 8:49PM EDT until August 6 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Knott and Perry.
WHEN Until midnight EDT tonight.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Overflowing poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 849 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Vicco, Anco, Elic, Wiscoal, Sassafras and Cordia.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 6 at 4:46AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
Areas of fog have developed this morning across portions of the region. Visibilities below a half of a mile are possible in the thickest of the fog. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing visibility this morning. Please slow down and allow extra time to reach your destination.
Dense Fog Advisory
Dense Fog Advisory issued August 6 at 5:57AM EDT until August 6 at 9:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.
WHERE Portions of northern Kentucky and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.
WHEN Until 9 AM EDT this morning.
IMPACTS Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.
If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 6 at 6:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
Areas of fog with patchy dense fog will linger across portions of northern Kentucky and central and southwest Ohio the next couple of hours. If traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing visibility this morning. The fog is expected to improve after sunrise.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 6 at 5:09PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 509 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Nicholasville, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Lexington, Nicholasville, Veterans Park, Spears, Coletown, Baldwin, Valley View, Logana, Union Mills, and East Hickman.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 6 at 5:13PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Durbin, or near Cannonsburg, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Huntington, Wayne, Chesapeake, Proctorville, Beech Fork State Park, Cannonsburg, Barboursville, Kenova, Catlettsburg, Ceredo, Princess, Durbin, Burnaugh, Centerville, South Point, Burlington, Lockwood, Lavalette, Buchanan, and Pea Ridge. This includes the following highways... Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 183 and 191. Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 16.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 6 at 5:20PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 520 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong thunderstorms over Zoe, or near Beattyville, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rain.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Campton, Fincastle, Pilot, Torrent, Leeco, Fillmore, Pence, Pine Ridge, Vancleve, Wilhurst, War Creek, Gosneyville, Vada, High Falls, Lane, Sewell, Whisman, Malaga, Zoe, and See. THIS INCLUDES Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 37 and 52.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 6 at 6:22PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
At 622 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Coal Grove, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Huntington, Ashland, Ironton, Coal Grove, Chesapeake, Proctorville, Cannonsburg, Barboursville, Kenova, Catlettsburg, Ceredo, Flatwoods, South Point, Russell, Raceland, Worthington, Burlington, Wurtland, Bellefonte, and Aid. This includes the following highways... Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 188 and 191. Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 6 and 20.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 6 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 630 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Siler, or 10 miles east of Williamsburg. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Julip, Gatliff, Hubbs, Clate, Birdseye, Verne, Gausdale, King, Louden, Bryants Store, Pruden, Polly Camp, Wheeler, Nevisdale, Dixie, Siler, Frakes, Perkins, Davisburg, and Packard.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 6:42PM EDT until August 6 at 9:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following county, Letcher.
WHEN Until 945 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Overflowing poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 642 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Ehkhorn Mine and Deane.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 7:06PM EDT until August 6 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Harlan and Letcher.
WHEN Until 1015 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 706 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Whitesburg, Cumberland, Lynch, Benham, Blair, Linefork, Partridge, Lewis Creek, Clutts, Flint, Maggard, Kings Creek, Kingdom Come S.P., Defeated Creek, Clover, Skyline, Gordon, Big Black Mountain, Lilley Cornett Woods and Rock House.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 7:11PM EDT until August 6 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, McCreary and Whitley.
WHEN Until 1015 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 711 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Williamsburg, Bounty, Duckrun, Krupp, Redbird, Bon and Liberty.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 7:22PM EDT until August 6 at 10:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following county, Elliott.
WHEN Until 1030 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 722 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Culver and Isonville.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 6 at 7:39PM EDT until August 6 at 10:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
FFWJKL The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... East Central Elliott County in east central Kentucky... * Until 1045 PM EDT. * At 739 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... mainly rural areas of East Central Elliott County
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 6:51PM CDT until August 6 at 9:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Clinton County in south central Kentucky...
WHEN Until 945 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 651 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Albany, Cannons Mill, Upchurch, Snow, Cartwright, Bug, Savage, Marlow, Wago and Nora. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 6 at 7:53PM EDT until August 6 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following county, Laurel.
WHEN Until 1100 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 753 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... London, Maplesville, Langnau and Crawford.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Summer Heat vs. Mountain Downpours
A complex August setup will bring a sharp contrast to the Commonwealth. While the western half of the state remains hot and mostly dry under a building ridge, a vigorous shortwave trough will interact with deep tropical moisture in Southeast Kentucky, triggering heavy rainfall and localized flooding risks. Elsewhere, scattered nuisance showers and high humidity will prevail.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the temperature gradient and moisture availability in the southeast, but lower confidence in the northern extent of measurable rainfall due to significant dry air in the lower levels.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A building ridge will keep the far west mostly dry. Expect plenty of sunshine and highs in the mid-80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
A few clouds may drift in, but meaningful rain is unlikely. Temperatures will stay seasonal.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect some dampness early in the day, but rain will be very light, totaling under a tenth of an inch.
Barren River
Periodic rain is likely, especially in the afternoon. Total amounts will be around a fifth of an inch.
Louisville Metro
A hot day with highs near 88. While clouds will increase, dry air will evaporate most rain before it hits the ground.
Lincoln Trail
Clouds and off-and-on rain will keep things damp. Expect around 0.15 inches of rain.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a dry morning with rain developing after noon. Totals will be light.
Northern Kentucky
Afternoon highs will approach 90. A few sprinkles are possible late, but most areas will stay dry.
Inner Bluegrass
A warm and mostly dry day will give way to a steadier light rain late tonight. Expect around 0.2 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Highs will reach the mid-80s. Rain is likely to develop late in the day as moisture pools against the hills.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland will be the hot spot with highs in the lower 90s. Some clouds will arrive late, but rain is unlikely.
Southeast Kentucky
A significant rain event is expected today. Heavy downpours could produce over 1 inch of rain, leading to ponding on roads.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the moisture boundary stalls further north and convective cells 'train' over the same terrain in the Southeast, rainfall totals could exceed 2.5 inches, leading to more widespread flash flooding in narrow mountain valleys.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the western ridge builds more aggressively, it will shunt the shortwave further south, leaving the entire state hot and humid with only a few isolated sprinkles and no hydrologic concerns.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Coalfield Deluge Conflict
The NAM is an aggressive outlier, forecasting over 1.2 inches of rain in the Southeast due to high-resolution vorticity and terrain enhancement, while the GFS and Euro show more broad, light stratiform rain under 0.20 inches.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM's ability to resolve meso-scale vorticity peaks (0.00043) and its superior handling of orographic enhancement in the Kentucky coalfields makes it more reliable for localized heavy rain events in complex terrain.
The North-Central Virga Battle
Models agree on high cloud cover and moisture, but the GFS predicts a deep, dry-mixed layer below 700mb that will evaporate most precipitation, whereas the Euro forecasts steady light rain reaching the surface.
Why GFS Wins
The GFS handles the 'dry slot' and boundary layer mixing better in high-heat scenarios (near 90F). Given the low CAPE environment, the energy will likely be insufficient to overcome the large dewpoint depressions in the Metro areas.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.