Wednesday, August 5
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Warning issued August 5 at 12:45PM EDT until August 5 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
FFWRLX The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northwestern Greenup County in northeastern Kentucky... * Until 345 PM EDT. * At 1245 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Letitia.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads. Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 12:48PM EDT until August 5 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Northwestern Lewis County in northeastern Kentucky...
WHEN Until 345 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1248 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Concord, Charters, Herron Hill, Carrs, Glen Springs, Ribolt, Stricklett and Kinniconick.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. To report flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 1:10PM EDT until August 5 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Western Lewis County in northeastern Kentucky... Mason County in northern Kentucky...
WHEN Until 400 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 109 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible. - Some locations that may experience flooding include... Maysville, Washington, Lewisburg, Tollesboro, Sardis, Fleming-Mason Airport, Somo, Orangeburg, Mount Gilead, Helena, Rectorville, Mays Lick, Murphysville, Peed and Trinity.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. To report flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 5 at 1:25PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 125 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Bryan Station. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Lexington, Paris, Bryan Station, Northland, Highlands, Thoroughbred Acres, Sidville, Elmendorf, Chilesburg, and Hutchison.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 1:36PM EDT until August 5 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Southwestern Bourbon County in central Kentucky... Northeastern Fayette County in central Kentucky...
WHEN Until 430 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 136 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Lexington, Bryan Station, Thoroughbred Acres, Northland, Mattoxtown, Elmendorf, Muir, Loradale, Fenwick and Spindletop Estates. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 1:37PM EDT until August 5 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of east central Kentucky, including the following county, Fleming.
WHEN Until 330 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 137 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will allow minor flooding to continue or worsen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Fairview, Cowan and Ewing.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 5 at 1:56PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 155 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Fairview, moving southwest at 15 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Barefoot, Blue Licks Springs, Barterville, Ellisville, and Pleasant Valley.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 5 at 5:06PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 505 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Bee Lick to near Dabney. Movement was north at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rain.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Somerset, Science Hill, Shopville, Dabney, Bobtown, Bandy, Woodstock, Pulaski, and Eubank. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... Kentucky Highway 80 in Pulaski County between mile markers 17 and 18, and between mile markers 20 and 29. Louis B. Nunn Parkway
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 5:12PM EDT until August 5 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Southeastern Casey County in central Kentucky... Lincoln County in central Kentucky...
WHEN Until 815 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Liberty, Stanford, Crab Orchard, Hustonville, South Fork, Kings Mountain, New Salem, Walltown, Geneva and Waynesburg. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 5 at 5:16PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 516 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Bee Lick, moving east at 5 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Crab Orchard, Ottenheim, Turkeytown, Broughtentown, Waynesburg, and Dog Walk.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 5 at 5:16PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 516 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Indian Lakes Park to Bandy to near Shopville. Movement was northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rain.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Mount Vernon, Bee Lick, Sand Springs, Hiatt, Gum Sulphur, Bandy, Pongo, Quail, Maretburg, Ottowa, Woodstock, Spiro, Shopville, Wabp, Bloss, Lake Linville, Hansford, Renfro Valley, Valley Oak, and Willailla. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 62 and 64. Kentucky Highway 80 in Pulaski County between mile markers 28 and 38.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 5:24PM EDT until August 5 at 5:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
The Flood Advisory will expire at 530 PM EDT this afternoon for a portion of central Kentucky, including the following areas, Bourbon, Harrison and Nicholas. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 5:25PM EDT until August 5 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Southeastern Garrard County in central Kentucky... Southeastern Madison County in central Kentucky...
WHEN Until 830 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 525 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Richmond, Berea, Kingston, Whites, Terrill, Dreyfus, Speedwell, Bighill, Duluth and Slate Lick. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 7:09PM EDT until August 5 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, Clay and Knox.
WHEN Until 1015 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 709 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Salt Gum, Mills, Scalf, Ice Cliff, Brightshade, Walker, Ashers Fork, Lipps and Dewitt.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 7:23PM EDT until August 5 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following county, Pike.
WHEN Until 1015 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. Ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 721 PM EDT, The public reported minor flooding along Rocky Road in Millard. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain has fallen after thunderstorms moved across across the advisory area. - Additional light rainfall is ongoing over the advisory area. This additional rain will allow minor flooding to persist or worsen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Millard, Fishtrap Lake, Marrowbone, Garden Village, Phyllis, Shelbiana and Kimper.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law enforcement and request they pass this information to the National Weather Service when you can do so safely.
Scattered Summer Showers; Warm and Humid Statewide
A series of weak atmospheric disturbances will cross Kentucky on Wednesday, bringing scattered light rain showers primarily to central and eastern regions. Western Kentucky will remain mostly dry and hot under a building ridge.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall synoptic setup and temperature trends, with only minor discrepancies regarding the exact western extent of light rain and localized accumulation totals.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a bright and sunny summer day with clear skies and typical August warmth. Highs will climb into the upper 80s with no rain expected.
Northwest Pennyrile
Clouds will increase briefly in the morning, but most of the day will be sunny and hot. Rain chances are very low as the main system stays to the east.
Southwest Pennyrile
Enjoy a mostly sunny and dry day with seasonable temperatures reaching the upper 80s. Humidity will be noticeable but typical for early August.
Barren River
Clouds will thicken through the morning, leading to scattered rain showers during the afternoon. Rain totals will be light, generally around 0.15 inches.
Louisville Metro
The metro area will likely see more clouds than sun, but rain is expected to stay largely to the south and east. Highs will reach the upper 80s.
Lincoln Trail
Scattered light rain will move through during the afternoon hours. Expect accumulations around 0.12 inches before the rain tapers off in the evening.
Lake Cumberland
It will be a damp day around the Lake with rain showers occurring off and on. Total rainfall should reach approximately 0.20 inches.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will miss most of the rain, enjoying a dry and warm day. Highs will be near 88 degrees under partly cloudy skies.
Inner Bluegrass
Morning sunshine will give way to afternoon clouds and scattered rain showers. Expect totals around 0.10 inches by tonight.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect soggy conditions for the second half of the day as showers persist. Rainfall totals will reach nearly 0.18 inches in most spots.
Northeast Kentucky
It will be a warm and humid day with temperatures near 90 before rain arrives in the evening. Expect around 0.20 inches of rain late in the day.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a foggy and humid morning followed by scattered rain showers in the late afternoon. Rainfall will be light, totaling 0.10 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shortwave energy slows and interacts with higher moisture convergence, localized rainfall totals could exceed 0.50 inches in the Foothills and Bluegrass regions, with clouds keeping highs in the low 80s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If mid-level dry air entrainment is more aggressive, precipitation may struggle to reach the ground as virga, leaving much of the state dry with temperatures soaring into the low 90s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Dry Slot
The NAM attempts to bring light measurable rain into the Purchase and Northwest Pennyrile regions during the morning hours, while the GFS and Euro maintain a dry profile due to subsidence and lower PWAT values.
Why EURO Wins
The NAM often over-forecasts light QPF in moisture-starved environments; the global models (Euro/GFS) better resolve the synoptic subsidence on the back side of the ridge which should suppress rain development in the far west.
Northeast Heating Peak
GFS forecasts a pre-frontal temperature spike to 92°F in Northeast KY, while the NAM and Euro suggest earlier cloud cover will cap highs in the upper 80s.
Why NAM Wins
NAM's mesoscale resolution typically handles the arrival of convective cloud debris more accurately than the GFS 'smear' effect, suggesting clouds will arrive early enough to prevent the 92F peak.
Celestial Almanac
Last Quarter
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.