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Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Tue, Aug 4
Thu, Aug 6
Forecast For

Wednesday, August 5

Updated Aug 5, 7:16 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flash Flood Warning

Aug 5, 12:45 PM -> Aug 5, 3:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued August 5 at 12:45PM EDT until August 5 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Advisory

Aug 5, 12:48 PM -> Aug 5, 3:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 12:48PM EDT until August 5 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Aug 5, 1:10 PM -> Aug 5, 4:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 1:10PM EDT until August 5 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Aug 5, 1:25 PM -> Aug 5, 2:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 5 at 1:25PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 5, 1:36 PM -> Aug 5, 4:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 1:36PM EDT until August 5 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 5, 1:37 PM -> Aug 5, 3:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 1:37PM EDT until August 5 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 5, 1:56 PM -> Aug 5, 2:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 5 at 1:56PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 5, 5:06 PM -> Aug 5, 5:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 5 at 5:06PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 5, 5:12 PM -> Aug 5, 8:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 5:12PM EDT until August 5 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 5, 5:16 PM -> Aug 5, 5:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 5 at 5:16PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Aug 5, 5:16 PM -> Aug 5, 5:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued August 5 at 5:16PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 5, 5:24 PM -> Aug 5, 5:34 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 5:24PM EDT until August 5 at 5:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 5, 5:25 PM -> Aug 5, 8:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 5:25PM EDT until August 5 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 5, 7:09 PM -> Aug 5, 10:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 7:09PM EDT until August 5 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Aug 5, 7:23 PM -> Aug 5, 10:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued August 5 at 7:23PM EDT until August 5 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
85%

Scattered Summer Showers; Warm and Humid Statewide

A series of weak atmospheric disturbances will cross Kentucky on Wednesday, bringing scattered light rain showers primarily to central and eastern regions. Western Kentucky will remain mostly dry and hot under a building ridge.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High agreement on the overall synoptic setup and temperature trends, with only minor discrepancies regarding the exact western extent of light rain and localized accumulation totals.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Hot and Sunny
Sunny
88°/ 69°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Mostly Sunny and Warm
Cloudy
87°/ 68°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Typical Summer Day
Sunny
87°/ 70°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Afternoon Rain Showers
Rain
86°/ 70°

Louisville Metro

Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Partly Cloudy and Warm
Cloudy
88°/ 70°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Passing Light Showers
Rain
85°/ 69°

Lake Cumberland

IMPACTFUL
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Showers Likely Much of the Day
Rain
85°/ 70°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Mostly Sunny and Hot
Sunny
88°/ 69°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Cloudy with Late Showers
Rain
86°/ 71°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Persistent Afternoon Rain
Rain
85°/ 70°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Warm with Evening Showers
Rain
89°/ 71°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Foggy Start, Rainy Finish
Rain
86°/ 68°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the shortwave energy slows and interacts with higher moisture convergence, localized rainfall totals could exceed 0.50 inches in the Foothills and Bluegrass regions, with clouds keeping highs in the low 80s.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If mid-level dry air entrainment is more aggressive, precipitation may struggle to reach the ground as virga, leaving much of the state dry with temperatures soaring into the low 90s.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Western Dry Slot

The NAM attempts to bring light measurable rain into the Purchase and Northwest Pennyrile regions during the morning hours, while the GFS and Euro maintain a dry profile due to subsidence and lower PWAT values.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

The NAM often over-forecasts light QPF in moisture-starved environments; the global models (Euro/GFS) better resolve the synoptic subsidence on the back side of the ridge which should suppress rain development in the far west.

Affected Regions
PURCHASENORTHWEST PENNYRILE

Northeast Heating Peak

GFS forecasts a pre-frontal temperature spike to 92°F in Northeast KY, while the NAM and Euro suggest earlier cloud cover will cap highs in the upper 80s.

GFS
VS
NAM
VS
EURO
Why NAM Wins

NAM's mesoscale resolution typically handles the arrival of convective cloud debris more accurately than the GFS 'smear' effect, suggesting clouds will arrive early enough to prevent the 92F peak.

Affected Regions
NORTHEAST KY

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical profile shows a standard summer tropical lapse rate with no significant capping inversions. The freezing level is extremely high, near 14,000 feet, ensuring no wintry precipitation risk.

Thermal Boundary

A weak, diffuse moisture boundary is positioned along the I-65 corridor, separating higher dewpoints to the east from slightly drier air to the west.

Diurnal Trend

Diurnal heating will be the primary driver, though cloud cover and rain will create non-diurnal fluctuations in the afternoon across the eastern half of the state.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No true cold front is present; however, a weak surface trough will wash out over the Bluegrass region by Wednesday evening, resulting in light and variable winds.

Jet Stream Support

The state is positioned in the right-entrance region of a polar jet streak, providing weak synoptic lift mainly for the northern and eastern counties.

Energy Status

Weak shortwave impulses are transiting the westerly flow, with a localized vorticity maximum tracking toward Northeast KY by late afternoon.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

The column is saturated between 850mb and 500mb in the east, while the west shows large dewpoint depressions near the surface, posing a virga risk.

Precipitation Character

Precipitation will be largely stratiform with low rain rates, occasionally becoming more convective in nature during peak afternoon heating.

Flooding Context

No flood risk exists. Ground conditions are stable and rainfall totals are expected to remain well below 0.50 inches.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Last Quarter

56% Illumination
Moonrise
11:59 PM
Moonset
2:26 PM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
7:03 AM
Sunset
8:59 PM
Civil Dawn
6:35 AM
Civil Dusk
9:27 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:56 AM
Sunset
8:54 PM
Civil Dawn
6:27 AM
Civil Dusk
9:23 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:59 AM
Sunset
8:54 PM
Civil Dawn
6:31 AM
Civil Dusk
9:22 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:55 AM
Sunset
8:50 PM
Civil Dawn
6:27 AM
Civil Dusk
9:19 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
8:50 PM
Civil Dawn
6:21 AM
Civil Dusk
9:19 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:51 AM
Sunset
8:49 PM
Civil Dawn
6:22 AM
Civil Dusk
9:18 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:47 AM
Sunset
8:43 PM
Civil Dawn
6:19 AM
Civil Dusk
9:11 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:43 AM
Sunset
8:47 PM
Civil Dawn
6:13 AM
Civil Dusk
9:16 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:45 AM
Sunset
8:45 PM
Civil Dawn
6:16 AM
Civil Dusk
9:13 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:45 AM
Sunset
8:43 PM
Civil Dawn
6:16 AM
Civil Dusk
9:12 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:37 AM
Sunset
8:38 PM
Civil Dawn
6:08 AM
Civil Dusk
9:07 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:41 AM
Sunset
8:38 PM
Civil Dawn
6:13 AM
Civil Dusk
9:06 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.