Tuesday, August 4
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 4 at 4:17AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
Areas of patchy and locally dense fog are forming across the Quad State this morning. Visibilities as low as one half to one quarter of a mile are being observed at times. Any fog is expected to burn off within a couple hours of sunrise and visibilities should improve.
Summer Heat Dominates with Isolated Eastern Drizzle
A strong ridge of high pressure will anchor over the region on Tuesday, bringing hot and mostly dry conditions to the majority of Kentucky. While the western and central parts of the state enjoy full sunshine, a shallow plume of moisture interacting with the eastern mountains will trigger isolated light rain and drizzle, primarily in the afternoon and evening.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is very high regarding the overall heat and dry conditions for Western and Central KY. However, disagreement between the NAM and global models regarding the western moisture convergence and the spatial extent of eastern drizzle lowers the overall score.
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Purchase Area
Expect some extra clouds in the morning hours, but these will quickly break for a hot and sunny afternoon. Highs will reach the mid-80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
A beautiful summer day with high temperatures in the mid-80s and clear blue skies throughout the day.
Southwest Pennyrile
Highs will climb into the mid-to-upper 80s under sunny skies. Winds will be light out of the north.
Barren River
Plenty of sunshine for the Bowling Green area with highs near 86. A few clouds may build in the afternoon but rain is not expected.
Louisville Metro
Expect a hot afternoon with highs reaching 88 in the city. Clear skies will persist through the evening.
Lincoln Trail
Bright sunshine and light breezes will make for a great outdoor day with highs in the mid-80s.
Lake Cumberland
Expect sunshine early, but clouds will move in by the afternoon. Some light drizzle or a brief shower is likely, though accumulations will be very low.
Northern Kentucky
A very pleasant day for the Cincinnati area with highs in the mid-80s and low humidity.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see full sunshine and temperatures reaching the upper 80s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Clouds will build in the afternoon and may bring a few light raindrops or mist by sunset.
Northeast Kentucky
A hot day for Ashland and Morehead with highs in the upper 80s. Clouds will increase late in the day with a stray shower possible.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a cloudier day with periods of light rain and drizzle. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than the rest of the state due to the clouds.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level ridge is slightly weaker than modeled, the moisture plume in the east could penetrate further west into the Bluegrass, resulting in more widespread cloud cover and cooler afternoon highs in the low 80s for Central Kentucky.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the subsidence from the high pressure is maximized, the shallow moisture in the east will evaporate as virga before reaching the ground, leaving the entire state dry and pushing afternoon temperatures toward the lower 90s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Northeast Compression Heat
The GFS is forecasting a significant heat outlier for the Ashland area, suggesting a high of 93°F due to compression heating, while the NAM and Euro suggest a more moderated 84-86°F.
Why BLEND Wins
While the GFS often captures valley-specific heating, the 93°F mark is a 7-degree outlier compared to the ensemble mean. A weighted blend accounts for the high sun angle while respecting the broader thermal profile.
The Purchase Moisture Ghost
The NAM is an outlier, forecasting a period of morning rain (80% PoP) in the far western Purchase region due to mesoscale moisture convergence. The GFS and ECMWF maintain a dry solution, suggesting that strong subsidence from the ridge will suppress this development.
Why EURO Wins
Global models (ECMWF/GFS) are better handling the synoptic suppression from the building ridge. The NAM logic trace admits high bust potential due to subsidence, making the drier solution more probable.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.