Monday, August 3
Summer Sun West, Lingering Dampness Southeast
High pressure will build into the Commonwealth from the north and west, bringing clearing skies and comfortable summer temperatures to most of Kentucky. However, a stalling frontal boundary over the Tennessee Valley will keep cloud cover and scattered light rain showers in play for the Southeastern mountains and Lake Cumberland regions through the afternoon.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists in the temperature profile and the general split between a dry West and damp Southeast. The only minor uncertainty is the exact timing of afternoon clearing in the Bluegrass.
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Purchase Area
A beautiful summer day is expected with plenty of sun and light winds. Temperatures will be very comfortable for early August.
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunny skies will prevail throughout the day with temperatures reaching the low 80s.
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunshine will be the rule today after some early morning clouds clear out. It will be a perfect day for outdoor activities.
Barren River
Expect a cloudy start to the day, but the clouds will break up by the afternoon, allowing for a warm and sunny end to the day.
Louisville Metro
A mix of sun and clouds is expected for the city. It will be warm with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid-80s.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a gray start to your Monday, but sunshine will break through during the afternoon hours.
Lake Cumberland
Keep the umbrella handy this morning. Light rain showers are likely before noon, with clouds lingering through the afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
A crisp summer day is in store with low humidity and plenty of sunshine for the afternoon.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a cloudy and possibly drizzly start to the day. However, it will dry out with sunshine returning by the mid-afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Cloudy skies will dominate much of the day, keeping it feeling relatively cool for August. A few light sprinkles are possible in the morning.
Northeast Kentucky
It will be a mostly gray and humid day. While widespread rain is not expected, the clouds will be slow to break.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a wet day with periods of light rain and drizzle. It will stay cloudy and cool through the evening hours.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The boundary stalls further north than anticipated, keeping the Bluegrass and Pennyrile regions under a stubborn stratus deck with intermittent light drizzle, holding temperatures in the mid-70s.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry air advection from the high-pressure system is more aggressive, scouring out all moisture by mid-morning even in the mountains, resulting in a statewide sunny day with temperatures reaching the mid-80s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Bluegrass Drizzle Debate
The NAM suggests widespread light drizzle (80% POP) for the Bluegrass Core due to shallow low-level moisture, while the GFS and Euro show a much drier profile with significant subsidence clearing the area by noon.
Why EURO Wins
Global models better resolve the strength of the incoming surface high and the associated drying of the mid-levels, suggesting the NAM is over-forecasting 'phantom' light precip from a shallow moisture layer.
Afternoon High Temperature Spread
The GFS is an outlier with high temperatures reaching 85F in urban corridors like Louisville, while the NAM and Euro keep values closer to 81-82F due to lingering morning cloud cover.
Why BLEND Wins
While the GFS captures the urban heat island effect well, the initial morning cloud cover will likely delay the start of the diurnal heating curve, making a blend of GFS/Euro the most probable outcome.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.