Sunday, August 2
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 1 at 9:33PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 933 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Sunnybrook, or 9 miles east of Byrdstown, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Parmleysville, Great Meadows Campsites, Oil Valley, Coopersville, Burfield, Barrier, Rockeybranch, Slickford, Griffin, Mount Pisgah, Powersburg, Sunnybrook, and Kidds Crossing.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 1 at 9:38PM EDT until August 1 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 937 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hiatt, or near Mount Vernon, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD 60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. This severe storm will be near... Goochland around 945 PM EDT.
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 1 at 9:44PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 944 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Cowan to Mount Sterling. Movement was east at 30 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Mount Sterling, Flemingsburg, Owingsville, Frenchburg, Marshall, Jeffersonville, Camargo, Sharpsburg, Salt Lick, Fairview, Clay Lick, Levee, Ramey, Pecks Ridge, Wyoming, Peasticks, Olympia Springs, Flat Creek, Odessa, and Bourbon Furnace. THIS INCLUDES Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers 107 and 133.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 1 at 11:32PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
At 1132 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Egypt, or 10 miles southeast of McKee, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible. Locations impacted include... Booneville, Turin, Travellers Rest, Blake, Grace, Southfork, Cowcreek, Zekes Point, Maulden, Treadway, Fogertown, Mummie, Tyner, Chestnut Gap, Privett, Scoville, Chestnutburg, Settle Store, Shepherdtown, and Lerose.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
A Soggy and Humid Sunday Across the Commonwealth
A damp and muggy Sunday is in store for Kentucky as multiple weak atmospheric disturbances move through a moisture-saturated airmass. Expect widespread light to moderate rain showers throughout the day, with the steadiest precipitation occurring across Southern and Eastern Kentucky. Temperatures will remain unseasonably mild for early August due to thick cloud cover and persistent rainfall.
Confidence Assessment
Strong model agreement on high precipitation chances and the absence of severe weather risks. Minor uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing of clearing in the west and localized rainfall totals in the eastern mountains.
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Purchase Area
Expect rain showers to be most frequent during the morning and early afternoon. Skies will likely remain overcast, but rain will taper off by sunset, with totals around a tenth of an inch.
Northwest Pennyrile
Light rain will be common through the afternoon. It will be a muggy day with high humidity and temperatures hovering in the mid-70s. Rainfall will be near a tenth of an inch.
Southwest Pennyrile
Frequent rain showers are expected from mid-morning through early evening. Totals will be around 0.13 inches, and the day will feel very muggy.
Barren River
Steady light rain will persist for much of the afternoon and evening. Expect damp conditions for any outdoor plans, with rainfall totals near 0.15 inches.
Louisville Metro
Expect overcast skies and occasional rain showers, especially during the afternoon hours. It will be a muggy day with about a tenth of an inch of rain possible.
Lincoln Trail
Rain will pick up in intensity during the afternoon. The area will remain cloudy and humid, with rainfall totals reaching nearly 0.18 inches.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a very damp day with showers beginning in the afternoon and lasting through the night. Around 0.20 inches of rain is expected, though some localized spots could see more.
Northern Kentucky
Unusually cool for August, temperatures will struggle to reach the mid-70s. Light rain is expected intermittently throughout the day, totaling about 0.10 inches.
Inner Bluegrass
Steady rain is likely from late morning through the afternoon. It will be a humid day with overcast skies and rainfall totals around 0.12 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Showers will be intermittent throughout the day. Richmond and Berea can expect around 0.10 inches of rain and very humid conditions.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect a very wet day with steady rain from morning through evening. This region will see some of the highest totals in the state, around 0.35 inches.
Southeast Kentucky
Rain will be a frequent companion today, especially during the morning and afternoon hours. Around 0.30 inches of rain is expected, with fog likely in the valleys.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the NAM's terrain-enhanced forcing verifies, localized totals in the Lake Cumberland and Southeast Coalfields could exceed 0.50 inches, with persistent drizzle lingering through Monday morning.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If a faster-moving trough axis (as suggested by the ECMWF) moves through, clearing could begin in Western Kentucky by mid-afternoon, limiting rainfall totals to under 0.10 inches for many.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Cumberland Plateau Bullseye
The NAM predicts a significant localized rainfall maximum (0.50"+) in the Lake Cumberland region due to 'Plateau Injection,' while the GFS and Euro maintain much lighter synoptic totals (0.10-0.15").
Why EURO Wins
In a low-instability environment (0 CAPE), the NAM's tendency for localized 'bullseye' artifacts is high. The global models' more conservative approach to synoptic lift is more reliable for this August setup.
Temperature Floor Dispute
The GFS is aggressively cool, suggesting some Northern KY areas may struggle to hit 70F, while the Euro and NAM favor mid-70s.
Why BLEND Wins
GFS often over-cools during light 'smear' precipitation events; however, the lack of sun suggests a very flat diurnal curve. A blend between the GFS and Euro provides the most realistic thermal profile.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.