Saturday, August 1
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 1 at 1:46AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
At 146 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Farmersville, or near Princeton, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Princeton, Eddyville, Creswell, Olney, Farmersville, and Fryer. This includes the following highways... Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 53 and 56. Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 70 and 87.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued August 1 at 1:50AM CDT until August 1 at 4:45AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Caldwell County in western Kentucky... Lyon County in western Kentucky...
WHEN Until 445 AM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 150 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Princeton, Eddyville, Cravens Bay Campground, Demumbers Bay Campground, Birmingham Ferry Recreation Area, Hillman Ferry Campground, Land Between The Lakes Area, Farmersville, Creswell, Cobb, Kuttawa, Fredonia and Fryer.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 1 at 2:54PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles southwest of Shelbyville to Taylorsville to 7 miles north of Bardstown. Movement was east at 25 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Shelbyville, Taylorsville, Fairfield, Wakefield, Yoder, Waterford, Highgrove, Southville, Rivals, and Elk Creek.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 1 at 3:04PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 304 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles west of Shelbyville, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Shelbyville, Eminence, Simpsonville, Smithfield, L S Park, Mulberry, Chestnut Grove, Fisherville, Montclair, and Joyes.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 1 at 7:23PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY
At 723 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Owenton to near Lawrenceburg. Movement was east at 25 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Frankfort, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Midway, Stamping Ground, Gratz, Longlick, Slickway, Anderson City, and Farmdale.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued August 1 at 7:25PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
At 725 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Carrollton, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD Wind gusts up to 45 mph.
SOURCE Radar indicated.
IMPACT Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Carrollton, Williamstown, Dry Ridge, Vevay, Warsaw, Owenton, Florence, Kentucky Speedway, Glencoe, Ghent, Sanders, Corinth, Sparta, Patriot, Worthville, Monterey, Gratz, Stewartsville, Elk Lake, and Aberdeen. This includes the following Interstates... I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 41 and 69. I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 158 and 161. If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building. To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning issued August 1 at 7:28PM EDT until August 1 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
TORILN The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Eastern Switzerland County in southeastern Indiana... Eastern Carroll County in northern Kentucky... Northwestern Grant County in northern Kentucky... Northwestern Owen County in northern Kentucky... Gallatin County in northern Kentucky... * Until 800 PM EDT. * At 727 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Kentucky Speedway, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD Tornado.
SOURCE Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Vevay, Warsaw, Florence, Kentucky Speedway, Glencoe, Ghent, Sanders, Sparta, Patriot, Ethridge, Interstate 71 at Mile Marker 52, Interstate 71 at US Route 127, Wheatley, Steele Bottom, Markland, Napoleon, Eagle Station, Easterday, Quercus Grove, and Egypt Bottom. This includes I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 45 and 67.
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.
Soggy Start to August with Widespread Rain Across Kentucky
A robust summer shortwave trough and associated surface boundary will track across the Commonwealth, bringing widespread rain through Saturday. Heavy totals are expected in Western Kentucky during the morning hours, with the precipitation shield shifting into Central and Eastern Kentucky by the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain seasonably cool due to extensive cloud cover.
Confidence Assessment
Confidence is high for precipitation type (all rain) and the general timing of the west-to-east progression. However, significant disagreement between the NAM and Global models regarding rainfall totals in the eastern half of the state lowers overall confidence in exact accumulation figures.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Prepare for a soggy morning with heavy rain likely before noon. Conditions will gradually dry out by the afternoon as the system shifts east. Accumulations will be around 0.9 inches. Winds could gust up to 30 mph during the peak rainfall.
Northwest Pennyrile
Steady rain will impact the Owensboro area throughout the morning and into the early afternoon, with total rainfall around 0.8 inches. Clouds will linger through the evening, keeping temperatures cool for August.
Southwest Pennyrile
Expect steady rain through lunch, followed by a breezy and humid afternoon. Rainfall totals will be around 0.7 inches. Winds will be noticeable, with gusts up to 30 mph at times.
Barren River
Rain will arrive mid-morning and last through the afternoon. Expect accumulations around 0.6 inches with muggy conditions persisting. Windy at times, with gusts reaching 30 mph.
Louisville Metro
Showers will begin during the morning and persist on and off throughout the day. Total rainfall around 0.6 inches is expected. Expect wet city streets and reduced visibility at times through the evening.
Lincoln Trail
Expect a fairly breezy day with steady rain through the afternoon totaling around 0.5 inches. Winds will gust up to 27 mph at times as the system passes.
Lake Cumberland
While it will rain most of the day, the heaviest amounts are likely to fall in the evening hours. Accumulations around 0.8 inches are expected. Conditions will be damp and humid through the overnight period.
Northern Kentucky
A very wet day is in store for Northern Kentucky. Steady rain will last from morning through the evening, with totals around 0.8 inches. Temperatures will be held in check by the rain, peaking only in the low 70s.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington and the surrounding Bluegrass will see steady rainfall throughout the day, with around 0.9 inches expected. It will be a breezy and wet start to the month with gusts reaching 30 mph.
Bluegrass Foothills
Steady rain and high humidity will define the weather today. Rainfall around 0.7 inches is likely for the Richmond and Berea areas. Expect persistent clouds and damp conditions through the night.
Northeast Kentucky
A dry start is possible early, but rain will move in by midday and continue into the evening. Accumulations will be lighter, around 0.3 inches. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than the west, hitting the upper 70s before rain arrives.
Southeast Kentucky
Enjoy a dry morning with fog in the valleys. Showers will move into the mountains by late afternoon, totaling around 0.3 inches. Ridge tops may experience gusty winds up to 30 mph.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shortwave trough slows and moisture transport maximizes, widespread rainfall totals could exceed 1.5 inches across the entire state, leading to localized ponding on roads and nuisance flooding in low-lying areas.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If a dry slot develops behind the initial wave or terrain disruption in the east is more pronounced than modeled, Central and Eastern Kentucky may only see light, scattered showers with totals under 0.25 inches.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Momentum Transfer War
NAM and GFS suggest wind gusts up to 30-35 mph during the rain, while the Euro shows very light winds throughout the event.
Why GFS Wins
The tightening pressure gradient and low-level jet support seen in the NAM/GFS are consistent with a passing summer trough, making higher gusts more likely.
The Eastern Decay Dispute
The NAM aggressively dries out the precipitation shield as it moves east of I-75, while the GFS and Euro maintain a solid shield of rain into the Bluegrass and Coalfields.
Why BLEND Wins
While high-resolution models like the NAM often resolve terrain disruption better, the synoptic support from the global models suggests the trough will be strong enough to maintain light to moderate rain across the entire state.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.