Friday, July 31
Western Showers and Statewide Summer Heat
A weak shortwave trough will move across the region, bringing scattered light rain to Western and Central Kentucky while Eastern Kentucky remains dry and sunny under high-pressure influence.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for afternoon high temperatures and the overall dry trend in Eastern Kentucky. Confidence is lower for the specific timing and measurable totals of rain showers in the west due to model spread on shortwave amplitude.
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Purchase Area
Clouds will thicken throughout the morning with light rain showers becoming likely by the afternoon. Accumulations will be light, totaling around 0.20 inches. Temperatures will be warm, reaching the mid-80s despite the cloud cover.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a mostly cloudy day with scattered light rain arriving in the late afternoon and evening. Rain totals will remain very low, around 0.10 inches, providing a brief break from the heat.
Southwest Pennyrile
A humid day with plenty of clouds and a 40% chance for a few light rain showers during the evening hours. Most areas will stay dry, and temperatures will remain in the mid-80s.
Barren River
Partly sunny skies will give way to clouds by late afternoon. A few light sprinkles are possible in the evening. Highs will reach the mid-80s with light winds.
Louisville Metro
A very warm and humid day with a mix of sun and clouds. A stray shower is possible very late in the evening. Temperatures will approach the upper 80s, feeling quite warm in the city.
Lincoln Trail
Enjoy a mostly dry day with temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Clouds will increase toward sunset. There is only a small chance for a brief light shower tonight.
Lake Cumberland
Sunny skies and warm temperatures will dominate the day. Highs will climb into the mid-80s. Perfect conditions for outdoor activities on the water.
Northern Kentucky
Mostly sunny skies are expected with highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s. It will be a dry and pleasant day. A few clouds may drift in late at night but no rain is expected.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington and surrounding areas will see plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures in the mid-80s. Expect clear skies to persist through the evening with light winds.
Bluegrass Foothills
A beautiful day with sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s. High pressure will keep the area dry. Lows will drop into the comfortable low 60s tonight.
Northeast Kentucky
Expect sunny skies throughout the day with temperatures reaching the upper 80s in the valleys. Calm winds will make for a very warm afternoon.
Southeast Kentucky
A dry and warm day for the mountains with highs in the mid-80s and clear blue skies. Quiet and calm conditions will continue into the overnight hours.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The shortwave holds its intensity as it moves east, allowing light showers to reach as far east as Ashland and Hazard by late evening.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry low-level air (virga) prevents any measurable rain from reaching the surface, resulting in nothing more than a cloudy afternoon for the Western and Central regions.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Timing Tug-of-War
Models are in significant disagreement regarding the arrival and peak of precipitation. The NAM targets a morning window (12z-16z), the Euro suggests an afternoon/evening arrival (18z-00z), and the GFS delays moisture until after midnight.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro's handling of weak summertime troughs is generally superior, avoiding the NAM's typical early bias with moisture-starved systems and the GFS's over-reliance on high-pressure subsidence.
Precipitation Coverage Disparity
The GFS remains largely dry across the state, while the Euro and NAM both signal high probabilities of light rain, differing only on amounts and timing.
Why BLEND Wins
While the GFS likely overestimates the dry air, the Euro and NAM are likely over-forecasting QPF given the zero CAPE environment. A blend provides the most realistic 'nuisance rain' scenario.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.