Thursday, July 30
Summer Warmth Prevails with Increasing Afternoon Clouds
A ridge of high pressure will maintain dry and seasonably warm conditions across Kentucky. While sunshine will dominate the morning hours, mid-level moisture will increase from the west during the afternoon, leading to a transition toward cloudier skies. A few light sprinkles or virga remain possible in the Southwest Pennyrile, but no measurable precipitation is expected for the Commonwealth.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the lack of measurable precipitation across the state, though moderate uncertainty exists regarding the timing and thickness of afternoon cloud cover.
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Purchase Area
Expect clouds to thicken throughout the morning, resulting in a mostly cloudy afternoon. While it may look threatening at times, no rain is expected to reach the ground.
Northwest Pennyrile
A sunny start will give way to more clouds by late afternoon. Highs will be seasonable in the mid-80s.
Southwest Pennyrile
A few light sprinkles or non-measurable rain may fall during the morning hours before skies remain mostly cloudy for the afternoon.
Barren River
Expect plenty of morning sun followed by a transition to filtered sunshine and clouds in the afternoon.
Louisville Metro
A hot summer day in the city with highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s. Clouds will increase very late in the evening.
Lincoln Trail
Clear skies and comfortable mid-80s will make for a perfect afternoon for outdoor activities.
Lake Cumberland
Brilliant sunshine over the lake with highs in the low 80s. A great day to be on the water.
Northern Kentucky
Plenty of sunshine will drive temperatures into the mid-80s along the Ohio River.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect clear blue skies with an occasional afternoon breeze. Temperatures will reach the low 80s.
Bluegrass Foothills
A cool morning in the 50s will transition to a warm and sunny afternoon with temperatures near 82.
Northeast Kentucky
High pressure will keep skies clear throughout the day with temperatures warming into the low 80s.
Southeast Kentucky
After some morning valley fog clears, a beautiful sunny day is in store with comfortable temperatures.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the southern shortwave tracks further north and overcomes the dry sub-cloud layer, isolated light showers could produce up to 0.05" of rain in the Purchase and Southwest Pennyrile regions.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the ridge remains more robust as suggested by the GFS, skies will remain perfectly clear with zero cloud cover and slightly higher afternoon temperatures due to unrestricted solar insolation.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Virga Variance
The NAM is aggressive with a 80% PoP in Southwest KY due to a weak shortwave, while the GFS and Euro maintain a dry column with only 10% PoP.
Why EURO Wins
Sounding analysis confirms a significant 'dry slot' in the lowest 2km of the atmosphere. The NAM's high PoP is likely reflecting mid-level saturation that will fail to reach the ground as measurable rain.
Cloud Cover Onset
The GFS predicts 0% cloud cover statewide, while the Euro suggests an 80-90% opaque cloud deck arriving from the west after 18Z.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles mid-level moisture transport around the periphery of the ridge more realistically than the GFS, which often over-scours moisture in high-pressure regimes.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.