Wednesday, July 29
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 29 at 12:20AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Clearing skies, light winds, and lingering low-level moisture are helping areas of valley fog to develop and become dense late tonight. This fog will continue to expand through the night but likely remain the densest in the valleys. Visibilities will be below a quarter of a mile at times in the thickest of the fog. Be sure to slow down and use your low beam headlights when you encounter any fog.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 29 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
Mostly clear skies, light winds, and lingering low-level moisture generated areas of valley fog that has become dense early this morning. This fog will continue to expand into sunrise but likely remain the densest in the valleys. Visibilities will be below a quarter of a mile at times in the thickest of the fog. Be sure to slow down and use your low beam headlights when you encounter any fog. Look for the fog to start to clear out between 8 and 9 am.
Summer Heat West, Morning Drizzle East
A tale of two halves for Kentucky as high pressure builds from the west while a weak disturbance brings morning dampness to the east.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the synoptic pattern of a building western ridge, though minor disagreements remain regarding the exact timing of the morning drizzle dissipation in the east.
Get Personalized Forecasts
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Purchase Area
Expect a hot and bright summer day with temperatures reaching the upper 80s. Skies will remain clear from start to finish with very light winds.
Northwest Pennyrile
Beautiful conditions will prevail with plenty of sunshine and seasonable warmth. A very light breeze from the north will keep humidity manageable.
Southwest Pennyrile
Conditions will be dry and hot with afternoon highs approaching 88 degrees. Full sun is expected throughout the day.
Barren River
Expect sunny skies and warm temperatures in the upper 80s for Bowling Green. No rain is in the forecast.
Louisville Metro
A sunny and warm day is in store for the metro area with highs in the mid-80s. The afternoon will be dry and pleasant.
Lincoln Trail
Clear skies will prevail for Elizabethtown, with some occasional evening breezes. Highs will reach the mid-80s.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a few light showers or patches of drizzle early in the day. Skies will become partly cloudy by late afternoon.
Northern Kentucky
Clouds will filter the sun for much of the day, keeping temperatures very comfortable. A stray morning sprinkle is possible.
Inner Bluegrass
Light rain or drizzle will be likely during the morning commute. Expect around 0.02 inches of rain followed by a cloudy afternoon.
Bluegrass Foothills
Skies will be mostly cloudy for the first half of the day with a small chance for a sprinkle. Highs will reach the lower 80s.
Northeast Kentucky
Light rain or drizzle is expected this morning, gradually drying out by the afternoon. Temperatures will be held in the low 80s by cloud cover.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect off-and-on light rain showers, with the best chance occurring during the afternoon hours. Accumulations of around 0.03 inches of rain are expected.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The Euro thermal profile verifies, pushing heat indices into the mid-90s in the Purchase region, while NAM moisture persists, keeping showers in the Bluegrass through the evening commute.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry air advection from the GFS solution dominates, eroding the morning moisture quickly and resulting in a mostly sunny, dry day state-wide with highs capped in the mid-80s.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Heat Spread
A significant 5-7 degree disagreement exists between the ECMWF and the GFS/NAM regarding high temperatures in Western Kentucky.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro handles the strength of the 500mb ridge over the mid-Mississippi Valley more realistically for late July, suggesting the GFS and NAM are under-forecasting the thermal expansion.
Bluegrass Moisture Persistence
NAM shows measurable light rain throughout the day, while GFS/Euro suggest a dry slot develops by mid-morning.
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM is likely over-forecasting coverage, the GFS is known to be too dry in these 'weak impulse' scenarios. A blend accounts for persistent cloud cover and trace amounts.
Celestial Almanac
Full Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.