kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Mon, Jul 27
Wed, Jul 29
Forecast For

Tuesday, July 28

Updated Jul 28, 7:17 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 27, 12:28 PM -> Jul 28, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 27 at 11:28AM CDT until July 27 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 27, 12:28 PM -> Jul 28, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 27 at 11:28AM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 27, 12:28 PM -> Jul 28, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 27 at 11:28AM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 27, 2:22 PM -> Jul 27, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 27 at 1:22PM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 27, 2:22 PM -> Jul 27, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 27 at 1:22PM CDT until July 27 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 27, 5:20 PM -> Jul 28, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 27 at 5:20PM EDT until July 28 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 27, 7:48 PM -> Jul 28, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 27 at 7:48PM EDT until July 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 27, 7:49 PM -> Jul 28, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 27 at 7:49PM EDT until July 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 27, 7:58 PM -> Jul 28, 5:00 AM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 27 at 7:58PM EDT until July 28 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 27, 8:20 PM -> Jul 28, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 27 at 8:20PM EDT until July 28 at 12:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Special Weather Statement

Jul 27, 8:56 PM -> Jul 27, 9:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 27 at 8:56PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 27, 8:58 PM -> Jul 27, 9:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 27 at 8:58PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 27, 9:00 PM -> Jul 27, 9:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 27 at 9:00PM EDT until July 27 at 9:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 27, 9:00 PM -> Jul 28, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 27 at 8:00PM CDT until July 28 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 27, 9:04 PM -> Jul 27, 9:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 27 at 9:04PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 27, 9:17 PM -> Jul 27, 10:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 27 at 9:17PM EDT until July 27 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 27, 10:22 PM -> Jul 27, 11:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 27 at 10:22PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 27, 10:40 PM -> Jul 28, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 27 at 10:40PM EDT until July 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 27, 10:43 PM -> Jul 28, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 27 at 10:43PM EDT until July 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 27, 10:47 PM -> Jul 27, 11:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 27 at 10:47PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 27, 10:54 PM -> Jul 27, 11:15 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 27 at 10:54PM EDT until July 27 at 11:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 28, 12:02 AM -> Jul 28, 3:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 28 at 12:02AM EDT until July 28 at 3:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 28, 12:19 AM -> Jul 28, 12:30 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 28 at 12:19AM EDT until July 28 at 12:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 28, 12:20 AM -> Jul 28, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 28 at 12:20AM EDT until July 28 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 28, 12:32 AM -> Jul 28, 1:45 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 27 at 11:32PM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 28, 12:32 AM -> Jul 28, 1:45 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 27 at 11:32PM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 28, 12:32 AM -> Jul 28, 1:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 27 at 11:32PM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 28, 2:00 AM -> Jul 28, 3:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 28 at 2:00AM EDT until July 28 at 3:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 28, 2:17 AM -> Jul 28, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 28 at 1:17AM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 28, 2:17 AM -> Jul 28, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 28 at 1:17AM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 28, 12:19 PM -> Jul 28, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 28 at 11:19AM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Extreme Heat Warning

Jul 28, 12:19 PM -> Jul 28, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Extreme Heat Warning issued July 28 at 11:19AM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 28, 12:19 PM -> Jul 28, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 28 at 11:19AM CDT until July 28 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 28, 12:30 PM -> Jul 28, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 28 at 12:30PM EDT until July 28 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Heat Advisory

Jul 28, 12:30 PM -> Jul 28, 8:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Heat Advisory issued July 28 at 12:30PM EDT until July 28 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 28, 12:56 PM -> Jul 28, 1:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 28 at 12:56PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 28, 1:16 PM -> Jul 28, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 28 at 1:16PM EDT until July 28 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 28, 1:22 PM -> Jul 28, 1:45 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 28 at 1:22PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 28, 1:23 PM -> Jul 28, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 28 at 1:23PM EDT until July 28 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Special Weather Statement

Jul 28, 1:38 PM -> Jul 28, 2:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 28 at 1:38PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 28, 2:33 PM -> Jul 28, 3:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 28 at 2:33PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 28, 2:37 PM -> Jul 28, 3:15 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 28 at 2:37PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 28, 2:40 PM -> Jul 28, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 28 at 2:40PM EDT until July 28 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 28, 2:44 PM -> Jul 28, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 28 at 2:44PM EDT until July 28 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 28, 2:49 PM -> Jul 28, 3:30 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 28 at 2:49PM EDT until July 28 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 28, 2:52 PM -> Jul 28, 3:15 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 28 at 2:52PM EDT until July 28 at 3:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 28, 2:56 PM -> Jul 28, 3:30 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 28 at 2:56PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Jul 28, 3:42 PM -> Jul 28, 8:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued July 28 at 3:42PM EDT until July 28 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 28, 4:02 PM -> Jul 28, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 28 at 4:02PM EDT until July 28 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 28, 4:21 PM -> Jul 28, 5:00 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 28 at 4:21PM EDT until July 28 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 28, 4:31 PM -> Jul 28, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 28 at 4:31PM EDT until July 28 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 28, 4:36 PM -> Jul 28, 4:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 28 at 4:36PM EDT until July 28 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
85%

Summer Heat West, Lingering Rain Across the East

A sharp weather divide will cut across Kentucky today. Western regions will remain under a ridge of high pressure, leading to hot and mostly sunny conditions, while a slow-moving trough and stalled boundary across the central and eastern counties trigger widespread morning rain and afternoon showers.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High agreement on the overall pattern split, but moderate uncertainty remains regarding the exact time the rain tapers off in Eastern Kentucky.

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Hot and Sunny Summer Day
Sunny
95°/ 79°

Northwest Pennyrile

Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Bright and Humid
Sunny
91°/ 75°

Southwest Pennyrile

Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Dry and Very Warm
Sunny
93°/ 77°

Barren River

NUISANCE
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Morning Showers, Afternoon Sun
Rain
90°/ 76°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Morning Rain Followed by Clearing
Rain
90°/ 75°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Damp Start, Drier Afternoon
Rain
89°/ 73°

Lake Cumberland

IMPACTFUL
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Periodic Rain and Cloudy Skies
Rain
87°/ 72°

Northern Kentucky

NUISANCE
Covington, Florence, Independence
Soggy Morning Near the River
Rain
86°/ 71°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Rain Showers and Humid
Rain
87°/ 71°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Scattered Showers and Clouds
Rain
86°/ 70°

Northeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
A Soggy Day in Ashland
Rain
83°/ 71°

Southeast Kentucky

IMPACTFUL
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Persistent Mountain Rain
Rain
84°/ 70°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

If the shortwave trough slows its progression as suggested by the GFS, rainfall totals in the Southeast Coalfields and Northeast Kentucky could exceed 0.75 inches, leading to localized ponding and a significantly cooler day with highs struggling to reach 80 degrees.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

If the dry air currently over the Purchase region pushes further east faster than expected, rainfall may diminish into light sprinkles or virga across the Bluegrass Core, leaving most areas with less than a tenth of an inch and quickly rising humidity.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The Departure of the Dampness

The GFS and NAM maintain high precipitation probabilities across the Bluegrass and Coalfields through the late evening, while the ECMWF aggressively clears the column from west to east starting by mid-afternoon.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why EURO Wins

The ECMWF's handling of dry slots behind departing shortwaves is historically more reliable than the GFS tendency to smear light precipitation long after the primary forcing has exited.

Affected Regions
BLUEGRASS CORELOUISVILLE METROLINCOLN TRAIL

Purchase Thermal Peak

Models are split on the magnitude of the heat in the far west, with the NAM suggesting 95 degrees while the GFS holds at 93 due to slightly higher soil moisture assumptions.

NAM
VS
GFS
Why NAM Wins

The NAM captures the local thermal ridge and boundary layer mixing in the Purchase region more effectively during peak summer months.

Affected Regions
PURCHASE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

Standard summer tropical profile with a moist-adiabatic lapse rate in the east and a dry-adiabatic profile in the far west. No inversions are present.

Thermal Boundary

A weak surface trough is stalled from Northeast Kentucky down through the Lake Cumberland region.

Diurnal Trend

The diurnal curve will be suppressed in the east by cloud cover, while the west follows a classic summer heating curve.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No formal cold front; however, a subtle wind shift to the west-northwest follows the trough axis passage in Central Kentucky around 18z.

Jet Stream Support

Kentucky is situated in the right entrance region of a Great Lakes jet streak, providing broad synoptic lift.

Energy Status

A series of low-amplitude vorticity maxima are traversing the mean cyclonic flow over the eastern half of the state.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Deeply saturated from surface to 500mb in the east; significant dry layer below 700mb in the west creating a sharp moisture gradient.

Precipitation Character

Primarily stratiform rain with occasional convective bursts in the afternoon as minor instability develops.

Flooding Context

Ground is not currently saturated; minimal flood risk despite persistent rain in the mountains.

Winter Physics

Accumulation & Layers

Specific physical factors affecting winter weather, including the vertical melt/freeze profile and snow quality.

Layer Analysis

Not applicable; all layers remain well above freezing.

Crystal Habit

Not applicable.

Road Impact

Wet roads in the east; no frozen impacts.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waxing Gibbous

99% Illumination
Moonrise
8:10 PM
Moonset
5:44 AM
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:57 AM
Sunset
9:06 PM
Civil Dawn
6:28 AM
Civil Dusk
9:35 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:49 AM
Sunset
9:02 PM
Civil Dawn
6:20 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:53 AM
Sunset
9:01 PM
Civil Dawn
6:24 AM
Civil Dusk
9:30 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:49 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
6:20 AM
Civil Dusk
9:27 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:43 AM
Sunset
8:58 PM
Civil Dawn
6:13 AM
Civil Dusk
9:27 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:44 AM
Sunset
8:57 PM
Civil Dawn
6:15 AM
Civil Dusk
9:26 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:41 AM
Sunset
8:50 PM
Civil Dawn
6:12 AM
Civil Dusk
9:19 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:36 AM
Sunset
8:55 PM
Civil Dawn
6:05 AM
Civil Dusk
9:25 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:38 AM
Sunset
8:52 PM
Civil Dawn
6:09 AM
Civil Dusk
9:22 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:38 AM
Sunset
8:51 PM
Civil Dawn
6:09 AM
Civil Dusk
9:20 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:30 AM
Sunset
8:46 PM
Civil Dawn
6:00 AM
Civil Dusk
9:16 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:35 AM
Sunset
8:45 PM
Civil Dawn
6:06 AM
Civil Dusk
9:14 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.