Monday, July 27
Soggy Monday Ahead with Persistent Rain and High Humidity
A stalled surface boundary across the Ohio Valley will serve as the focus for widespread, primarily stratiform rain across Kentucky on Monday. While severe weather is not expected due to low instability, high humidity and persistent cloud cover will dominate the weather story statewide.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence in the presence of the boundary and high moisture content; minor uncertainty remains regarding the exact northern/southern wiggle of the stalled front which dictates local rainfall totals.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
A very warm day with high humidity. Expect scattered rain showers throughout the day, with the highest chance for a soaking in the evening.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a series of light rain showers to move through the area, with the dampest conditions arriving later in the evening.
Southwest Pennyrile
A hot and humid day with rain chances increasing as the day goes on. The evening looks the wettest.
Barren River
Occasional rain throughout the day. It will feel very muggy, particularly during breaks in the rain.
Louisville Metro
Rain will be most noticeable early in the morning for commuters, with lighter, scattered showers for the rest of the day.
Lincoln Trail
Periods of rain through the day, beginning early in the morning and tapering off by late evening.
Lake Cumberland
A cloudy and damp day with the best chance for rain during the morning hours.
Northern Kentucky
Rain is most likely during the first half of the day, with skies remaining cloudy but drier into the evening.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a rainy start to the day. While rain chances decrease by evening, the humidity will linger.
Bluegrass Foothills
Periods of light rain throughout the day. It will stay humid but slightly cooler than areas to the west.
Northeast Kentucky
A soggy day with several rounds of rain, most concentrated in the morning hours.
Southeast Kentucky
Frequent rain showers, especially in the morning. Afternoon will be damp and humid with persistent low clouds.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the stalled boundary anchors further south or slows its progression, training of efficient rain cells could lead to localized flooding in urban areas or the Eastern KY valleys where totals could exceed 1.0 inch.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the boundary shifts north into Indiana/Ohio earlier than anticipated, the coverage of rain would diminish significantly, leaving the state with just overcast skies and oppressive humidity.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Moisture Coverage Conflict
The GFS is exhibiting its typical 'smear' effect, showing light precipitation across 100% of the state, whereas the ECMWF and NAM show more distinct waves of rain focused along the surface boundary.
Why EURO Wins
The ECMWF handles the 'dry slots' and moisture cutoffs with better precision in high-PWAT summer setups compared to the GFS over-saturation bias.
Purchase Heat Index Battle
Models disagree on how much clearing will occur in the far west. The ECMWF suggests 94F with high dewpoints, while the NAM remains cooler due to cloud debris.
Why EURO Wins
Climatological persistence for late July favors the warmer Euro solution for the Purchase region, even with cloud cover.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Gibbous
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.