Sunday, July 19
Humid Sunday with Waves of Rain and Localized Heavy Totals
A humid and unsettled summer Sunday is expected across Kentucky as a shortwave trough interacts with a moisture-rich environment, bringing widespread rain and several embedded heavy downpours, particularly in central and eastern regions.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall humid/unsettled pattern, but significant disagreement exists regarding localized rainfall totals in the central and eastern regions due to varying model treatments of shortwave energy.
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Purchase Area
Expect a hot summer day with plenty of sunshine and only a very slight chance of a stray shower. Highs will reach the low 90s with humid conditions making it feel even warmer.
Northwest Pennyrile
Rain showers are likely during the morning hours, but the afternoon should bring drier conditions. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy for much of the day.
Southwest Pennyrile
Cloudy skies will dominate the morning with scattered showers possible. Conditions will turn breezy and stay very humid throughout the afternoon.
Barren River
Rain showers will affect the morning commute and persist through midday. Expect gray skies and humid air with temperatures reaching the mid-80s.
Louisville Metro
Showers will move through during the overnight and early morning hours. The afternoon will stay mostly cloudy and muggy as the steadiest rain shifts east.
Lincoln Trail
Prepare for a very wet Sunday with heavy rain possible at times. Accumulations around 0.50 inches are expected, with some spots seeing higher totals.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will be most consistent during the afternoon hours. Expect a humid day with frequent showers around the lake.
Northern Kentucky
Most of the rain will stay to your south, leaving the region with gray skies and thick humidity. A stray shower cannot be ruled out during the morning.
Inner Bluegrass
Light rain showers will be intermittent throughout the morning and afternoon. Skies will remain cloudy with a breezy afternoon expected.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect a cloudy day with waves of light rain moving through the area. Total rainfall will likely remain under a quarter of an inch.
Northeast Kentucky
Wake up to a rainy morning with over a third of an inch of rain expected before noon. Humidity will remain high through the afternoon with lingering clouds.
Southeast Kentucky
The mountains will see the most consistent rain across the state today. Accumulations around 0.35 inches are expected as clouds bank up against the ridges.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The NAM's high-vorticity solution verifies, leading to localized rainfall totals exceeding 1.5 inches in central Kentucky and the northeastern foothills, resulting in minor urban ponding and flash flooding in low-lying areas.
The 'Bust' Scenario
Dry air entrainment at the mid-levels (as suggested by the GFS/Euro in the West) wins out, keeping rainfall totals under a quarter-inch for most of the state with only intermittent drizzle.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Western Dry Slot
NAM keeps the Purchase region almost entirely dry with clearing skies, whereas the Euro and GFS bring light rain showers through the morning and afternoon.
Why NAM Wins
NAM's resolution of the subsidence trailing the shortwave is typically more accurate in summer convective setups than the GFS 'smear' effect.
The Lincoln Trail Bullseye
The NAM suggests a high-intensity rainfall core (1.16") over central Kentucky due to a sharp vorticity maximum, while the GFS and Euro maintain a much broader, lighter precipitation field (0.15"-0.22").
Why BLEND Wins
While the NAM likely over-forecasts the localized total due to its known 'Bullseye Effect', it correctly identifies the mesoscale lift that global models often under-resolve. A blend captures the higher potential without the outlier magnitude.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.