Monday, July 20
Humid with Scattered Southern Showers; Dry and Hot North
A typical mid-summer pattern will hold across Kentucky this Monday. Southern and Western regions can expect scattered light rain showers and high humidity, while Northern and Central Kentucky remain largely dry and hot under partly cloudy skies.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall split-state pattern and thermal profiles, but typical summer uncertainty regarding the exact northern extent of light rain and specific convective timing.
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Purchase Area
Scattered light rain will be common during the morning hours, tapering off by mid-afternoon. It will be a very warm and muggy day with highs reaching 92 degrees.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect periods of light rain throughout the day, especially during the morning and early afternoon. Skies will remain mostly cloudy and the air will feel very heavy.
Southwest Pennyrile
A quiet start will give way to scattered rain showers by the afternoon. With highs around 91, the humidity will make it feel closer to 100 degrees.
Barren River
Dry conditions are expected for the morning, with light rain showers becoming more frequent after lunch and into the evening.
Louisville Metro
The metro area will likely stay dry today. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures climbing to near 91 degrees.
Lincoln Trail
Light rain chances will increase during the second half of the day. Only minor accumulations are expected, primarily between 3 PM and 8 PM.
Lake Cumberland
Expect a damp day with frequent light rain and drizzle. It will remain very warm and muggy through the entire 24-hour period.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will enjoy a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will be warm but the air will be slightly less humid than southern regions.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see plenty of sunshine today with temperatures reaching the upper 80s. A light breeze will provide some relief from the heat.
Bluegrass Foothills
A few light showers are possible during the middle of the day. Most activity will be short-lived, with the sun returning by late afternoon.
Northeast Kentucky
Ashland and Morehead will be among the warmest spots in the state. Expect mostly sunny skies with temperatures hitting the 90s.
Southeast Kentucky
Light rain showers are likely throughout the day in the mountains. While rainfall will be light, the clouds will keep temperatures in the 80s.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the shortwave tracks 50 miles further north and afternoon heating overcomes the cap, scattered thunderstorms could develop as far north as the I-64 corridor, with localized rainfall totals exceeding 0.50".
The 'Bust' Scenario
If mid-level dry air entrainment is more aggressive, precipitation will manifest primarily as virga, leaving much of the state dry with only trace amounts reaching the surface.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Convective vs. Stratiform Intensity
The GFS suggests enough diurnal destabilization to produce scattered convective showers with totals up to 0.20", whereas the ECMWF maintains a more suppressed, stratiform profile with totals under 0.05".
Why BLEND Wins
Summer shortwaves in high-PWAT environments typically over-perform slightly in moisture squeeze-out, but the lack of CAPE in soundings supports the Euro's lighter, more stratiform character.
The Purchase Heat Peak
The ECMWF is notably more aggressive with high temperatures in the far west, suggesting 93-94°F, while the GFS keeps readings closer to 91°F due to earlier cloud cover.
Why GFS Wins
Given the high confidence in morning cloud cover and early precipitation arrival in the Purchase, the lower temperature ceiling of the GFS is more physically plausible.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Forecast Charts
These maps are generated by the weather agencies based on the raw data that the weather models predict. The final forecast is generated using the same raw data shown on the map. Keep in mind that the models (and therefore the maps) will generally disagree on specific parts of the forecast. Use these as guidance - not as a final prediction.
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.