Thursday, July 16
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 15 at 12:01AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 15 at 2:13PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 15 at 2:26PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 15 at 2:49PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT Thursday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 15 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT Thursday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality. Additionally, smoke from Canadian wildfires will adversely impact air quality on Thursday. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency expects the Air Quality Index to be in the 'unhealthy for sensitive groups' range. For additional information, please visit the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency's website at epa.ohio.gov.
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 15 at 9:35PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT Thursday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality. Additionally, smoke from Canadian wildfires will adversely impact air quality on Thursday. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency expects the Air Quality Index to be in the 'unhealthy for sensitive groups' range on Thursday. For additional information, please visit the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency's website at epa.ohio.gov.
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 16 at 12:16AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality. Additionally, smoke from Canadian wildfires will adversely impact air quality on Thursday. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency expects the Air Quality Index to be in the 'unhealthy for sensitive groups' range on Thursday. For additional information, please visit the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency's website at epa.ohio.gov.
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 16 at 12:23AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality. Additionally, smoke from Canadian wildfires will adversely impact air quality on Thursday. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency expects the Air Quality Index to be in the 'unhealthy for sensitive groups' range on Thursday. For additional information, please visit the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency's website at epa.ohio.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 16 at 5:17AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s today. This will combine with a humid airmass to produce heat indicies in the 95 to 100 degree range this afternoon. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening.
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 16 at 9:21AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality Additionally, smoke from Canadian wildfires will adversely impact air quality today. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency expects the Air Quality Index to be in the 'unhealthy' range. For additional information, please visit the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency's website at epa.ohio.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 16 at 10:33AM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
Temperatures will climb into the lower 90s today. This will combine with a humid airmass to produce heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range this afternoon and early evening. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to hours outside of peak heating.
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 16 at 10:53AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality Additionally, smoke from Canadian wildfires will adversely impact air quality today. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency expects the Air Quality Index to be in the 'unhealthy' range. For additional information, please visit the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency's website at epa.ohio.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 16 at 12:09PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
Temperatures continue climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s today. This will combine with a humid airmass to produce heat indicies in the 95 to 100 degree range this afternoon. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening.
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 16 at 2:18PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality Additionally, smoke from Canadian wildfires will adversely impact air quality today. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency expects the Air Quality Index to be in the 'unhealthy' range. For additional information, please visit the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency's website at epa.ohio.gov.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement issued July 16 at 2:47PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV
Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s today. This will combine with a humid airmass to produce heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range this afternoon and early evening. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to hours outside of peak heating.
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 16 at 3:18PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT Friday night. Fine particulate levels are expected to be in the 'Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups' range. Active children and adults, and people with respiratory disease, such as asthma should limit prolonged outdoor exposure. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality. Additionally, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency has issued a statewide Air Quality Advisory for the entire state of Ohio as smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to adversely impact air quality. Pollutants across the state are expected to range from the 'Unhealthy For Sensitive Groups' category in the southwest part of the state to the 'Unhealthy' category in the rest of the state. Hourly concentrations at times may reach the 'Very Unhealthy' to 'Hazardous' categories. It is recommended, when possible, to avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with heart disease and respiratory conditions like asthma. Watch for symptoms including wheezing, coughing, chest tightness, dizziness, or burning in the nose, throat, and eyes. For additional information, please visit the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency's website at epa.ohio.gov.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 16 at 4:15PM CDT until July 16 at 7:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE Central Simpson County in south central Kentucky...
WHEN Until 715 PM CDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 415 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Franklin and Salmons. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
Sultry Heat with Scattered Showers and High Humidity
A stagnant, humid airmass will be perturbed by a weak mid-level shortwave, triggering scattered light rain showers across western and central Kentucky while the north and east remain hot and mostly dry.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall humid airmass and temperature trends, with moderate uncertainty regarding the precise western edge of measurable rainfall and the impact of cloud debris on peak heating.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a gray and humid day with periods of light rain showers. Rain will be most frequent during the afternoon, though totals will stay low. Accumulations around 0.15 inches are expected throughout the day.
Northwest Pennyrile
A humid day with mostly cloudy skies and occasional light rain. The best chance for rain arrives after midday. Accumulations around 0.18 inches are likely.
Southwest Pennyrile
Light rain will move through in waves today, making for a damp but not washed-out afternoon. Expect accumulations around 0.12 inches.
Barren River
Periods of light rain are likely from morning through evening. It will feel very muggy with highs in the mid-80s. Rainfall totals will be around 0.15 inches.
Louisville Metro
High heat and humidity will be the main story. A few light showers are possible in the afternoon, but many will stay dry. Accumulations around 0.05 inches expected if a shower passes over.
Lincoln Trail
The most consistent rain in the state is expected here today. Have the umbrella ready for the morning commute and afternoon errands. Accumulations around 0.35 inches are expected.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will move through in waves during the morning and again late in the evening. It will be a very warm, tropical day. Accumulations around 0.07 inches.
Northern Kentucky
Unlike the rest of the state, Northern Kentucky will enjoy plenty of sun. It will be quite hot with highs in the 90s. No measurable rain is expected.
Inner Bluegrass
Expect a lot of clouds and high humidity. A brief light shower is possible in the afternoon, but significant rain is unlikely. Accumulations around 0.04 inches.
Bluegrass Foothills
Hazy sunshine will mix with clouds today. A few light showers may develop in the afternoon as they push against the foothills. Accumulations around 0.08 inches.
Northeast Kentucky
This will be the hottest part of Kentucky today. Expect hazy sun and temperatures climbing into the mid-90s. No rain is expected.
Southeast Kentucky
A hot and mostly sunny day for the mountains, with a few light showers arriving late this evening and overnight. Expect accumulations around 0.02 inches.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The 'Boom' scenario involves the shortwave slowing down and interacting with higher-than-modeled instability, resulting in localized downpours exceeding 0.75 inches in central Kentucky and more widespread 90+ degree heat reaching the eastern valleys.
The 'Bust' Scenario
The 'Bust' scenario occurs if mid-level dry air entrainment is more aggressive, leading to widespread virga where rain evaporates before reaching the ground, leaving most of the state dry but still oppressively humid.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
Northeast Kentucky Heat Spike
The GFS is an outlier forecasting a high of 97F in the Northeast, whereas the NAM and Euro keep temperatures in the low 90s due to expected cloud debris.
Why BLEND Wins
While the GFS likely overestimates the peak heat, the subsidence in the northeast will lead to significant insolation. A blend between the Euro and GFS results in a more plausible 93-94F.
The Western Saturation Conflict
The GFS and Euro models suggest widespread light rain across the Purchase and Pennyrile regions driven by synoptic shortwave forcing, while the NAM remains significantly drier, keeping the moisture focused further east.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro provides the most realistic middle ground, accounting for the synoptic lift of the shortwave while avoiding the NAM's localized dryness and the GFS's tendency to over-spread light precipitation.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.