Wednesday, July 15
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 14 at 12:01AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 14 at 1:21PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 14 at 3:43PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT Wednesday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 14 at 9:06PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT Wednesday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 15 at 12:01AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 15 at 2:13PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 15 at 2:26PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 15 at 2:49PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT Thursday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 15 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT Thursday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality. Additionally, smoke from Canadian wildfires will adversely impact air quality on Thursday. The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency expects the Air Quality Index to be in the 'unhealthy for sensitive groups' range. For additional information, please visit the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency's website at epa.ohio.gov.
Sizzling Heat East, Scattered Showers West
A typical mid-summer pattern splits the state, with high heat and humidity in the east and central regions while a weak disturbance brings scattered rain to Western Kentucky.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the overall split-state pattern and temperature trends, with only minor timing and placement differences regarding the light rain boundary in the west.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a damp day with periods of light rain likely from morning through late afternoon. Accumulations will stay around a quarter of an inch. It will remain very humid, though cloud cover will keep temperatures in the mid-80s.
Northwest Pennyrile
A few showers will move through during the afternoon hours. Rain will be light, with totals around a tenth of an inch. Muggy conditions will persist with highs near 88 degrees.
Southwest Pennyrile
Clouds will dominate the day with rounds of light rain possible, especially in the afternoon. Accumulations around 0.15 inches are expected.
Barren River
Expect clouds to increase with a few light showers arriving after lunch. Totals will be very light, around 0.1 inches.
Louisville Metro
Louisville will likely miss the rain today. Expect plenty of sunshine and high heat, with temperatures reaching the lower 90s.
Lincoln Trail
A few light showers may pass through the area around Elizabethtown, but most of the day will remain dry and humid.
Lake Cumberland
Morning clouds may produce a few brief sprinkles, but the afternoon will be warm and mostly dry for the lake region.
Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky will be one of the warmest areas in the state. Expect full sun and temperatures reaching the mid-90s.
Inner Bluegrass
Sunshine and hot temperatures will be the rule today in Lexington. Highs will reach the lower 90s with noticeable humidity.
Bluegrass Foothills
A very warm but pleasant summer day is expected with highs in the upper 80s and plenty of sunshine.
Northeast Kentucky
Temperatures will soar into the mid-90s in the valleys. Expect a dry day with abundant sunshine.
Southeast Kentucky
A beautiful summer day is ahead for the mountains. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s under mostly sunny skies.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the mid-level shortwave slows and deepens, rain coverage could push further east toward the I-75 corridor, and localized pulse thunderstorms could produce rainfall amounts exceeding 0.75 inches in the Purchase region.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the eastern ridge remains more dominant, dry air entrainment will evaporate most precipitation before it reaches the ground (virga), leaving the entire state dry and pushing temperatures into the mid-90s statewide.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The I-65 Moisture Boundary
The Euro and GFS push a light rain shield as far east as the Lake Cumberland and Lincoln Trail regions, while the NAM keeps significant moisture confined to the far western river counties.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro's handling of the weak shortwave energy and its typical consistency with moisture-starved boundaries in the summer suggests a more realistic, further-reaching but lighter precipitation footprint.
Northern Kentucky Thermal Ridge
Models disagree on the intensity of the heat in the North. NAM suggests a localized 95 degree peak, while GFS/Euro are slightly more conservative in the low 90s.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM often resolves the localized thermal ridge and urban heat island effects better in stagnant summer patterns.
Celestial Almanac
Waxing Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.