Tuesday, July 14
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 13 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Tuesday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 13 at 5:39PM EDT until July 13 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following county, Wayne.
WHEN Until 845 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 539 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will likely experience flooding include... Slickford, Mount Pisgah, Sunnybrook, Powersburg and Parmleysville.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 14 at 12:01AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 14 at 1:21PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT tonight. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 14 at 3:43PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, until midnight EDT Wednesday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
A Tale of Two Marylands: Southern Rain vs. Northern Heat
Kentucky will experience a split weather pattern this Tuesday. A weak southern-stream disturbance will bring clouds and light rain to the Purchase and Pennyrile regions, while a building ridge of high pressure keeps the northern and eastern portions of the state hot and mostly sunny.
Confidence Assessment
High confidence exists for the heat in the North and East. Confidence is lower regarding the northern extent of the rain shield in the Southwest, as models struggle with the strength of the competing high-pressure ridge.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Clouds will be thick throughout the day with periods of light rain likely. It will feel humid, but temperatures will be held in the mid-80s by the cloud cover.
Northwest Pennyrile
Expect a bright summer day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures reaching the upper 80s. Rain is expected to stay just to your south.
Southwest Pennyrile
Rain chances increase as the day goes on. Expect light, steady rain and mostly cloudy skies through the evening hours.
Barren River
It will be a gray day for Bowling Green with occasional light rain showers moving through the area. Rainfall will be minimal.
Louisville Metro
A typical hot July day is in store for the city. Expect clear skies and temperatures climbing into the lower 90s.
Lincoln Trail
Expect sunshine and pleasant conditions along the Trail. Temperatures will be warm but humidity will remain manageable.
Lake Cumberland
You might see a few morning sprinkles or clouds, but the afternoon looks great for the water as skies clear and temperatures warm up.
Northern Kentucky
It will be a hot one today with temperatures hitting the lower 90s under blue skies. Stay hydrated if you are outdoors.
Inner Bluegrass
Sunshine and a light breeze will make for a beautiful day across the horse farms. Highs will stay in the upper 80s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Expect clear skies and temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s for the foothills regions.
Northeast Kentucky
A few morning clouds or light mist will quickly clear out, leading to a hot afternoon with temperatures reaching 91 degrees.
Southeast Kentucky
Expect a sunny and hot day across the mountains. It will be a perfect summer day for outdoor activities.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
If the southern shortwave tracks further north and the high-pressure ridge weakens, light rain could spread as far north as the I-64 corridor, resulting in cooler temperatures and higher humidity statewide.
The 'Bust' Scenario
If the ridge remains dominant, the southern moisture plume will be forced into Tennessee, leaving the entire Commonwealth dry, mostly sunny, and several degrees hotter than currently forecast.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Great Geographic Divide
The NAM focuses on a departing morning ripple in the Northeast, while the GFS and Euro prioritize an incoming wave in the Southwest Purchase area.
Why EURO Wins
The Euro and GFS show better synoptic consistency regarding the southern-stream shortwave. The NAM's focus on the Northeast appears to be a terrain-induced outlier that lacks deep-layer support compared to the incoming Western moisture plume.
Celestial Almanac
New Moon
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.