Monday, July 13
NWS Alerts Active This Day
Flood Watch
Flood Watch issued July 12 at 2:39PM EDT until July 13 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall will be possible.
WHERE Portions of east central, northeast, south central, and southeast Kentucky, including the following counties, in east central Kentucky, Bath, Elliott, Estill, Fleming, Menifee, Montgomery, Powell and Rowan. In northeast Kentucky, Johnson and Martin. In south central Kentucky, Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Rockcastle, Wayne and Whitley. In southeast Kentucky, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Jackson, Knott, Knox, Lee, Leslie, Letcher, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley, Perry, Pike and Wolfe.
WHEN Until 2 AM EDT Monday.
IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall are expected through the this evening. Already wet soils in some areas will make these locations more susceptible to flooding.
Monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 9:16PM EDT until July 12 at 10:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following counties, McCreary and Whitley.
WHEN Until 1015 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 915 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain; however, the heavy rain has come to an end. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Ayers, Zion Hill, Red Ash and Lot.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Air Quality Alert
Air Quality Alert issued July 13 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH
The Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for Butler, Clermont, Hamilton and Warren counties in Ohio; Boone, Campbell and Kenton counties in Kentucky; and Dearborn County in Indiana, from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Tuesday night. Levels of ozone within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards. On Alert days, help reduce ozone by taking the following actions: * Carpool, if possible, bike, walk or take the bus instead of driving alone. * Refuel your vehicle after 8 pm. * Do not idle your vehicle, exhaust contributes to air pollution. * Mow your lawn in the evening hours and avoid the use of gas-powered lawn equipment. For additional information, please visit the Southwest Ohio Air Quality Agency's web site at www.southwestohioair.org/local_air_quality
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 13 at 4:51PM EDT until July 13 at 6:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following county, Whitley.
WHEN Until 645 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 451 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Ayers, Red Ash, Zion Hill and Saxton.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 13 at 5:13PM EDT until July 13 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following county, McCreary.
WHEN Until 715 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 513 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Great Meadows Campsites.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory issued July 13 at 5:39PM EDT until July 13 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY
WHAT Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
WHERE A portion of south central Kentucky, including the following county, Wayne.
WHEN Until 845 PM EDT.
IMPACTS Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Water over roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 539 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are expected over the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding. - Some locations that will likely experience flooding include... Slickford, Mount Pisgah, Sunnybrook, Powersburg and Parmleysville.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Summer Split: Southern Downpours vs. Northern Heat
A stalled surface trough over the Tennessee Valley will create a distinct weather divide across Kentucky. Significant rainfall is expected in the southern tier, while northern regions enjoy hot, dry summer weather.
Confidence Assessment
High agreement on the temperature gradient between the hot north and rain-cooled south; minor disagreement on the northernmost extent of measurable precipitation.
Get Personalized Forecasts
Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.
Purchase Area
Expect a mix of sun and clouds with a few light showers possible in the afternoon. Rainfall totals will be minimal, generally under a tenth of an inch.
Northwest Pennyrile
A pleasant day overall with cloud cover increasing by the afternoon. A stray shower cannot be ruled out late in the day, but most will stay dry.
Southwest Pennyrile
Humid conditions will prevail with scattered light rain showers arriving by midday. Winds may gust up to 25 mph during the evening hours.
Barren River
Clouds and light rain will keep the area cooler than northern Kentucky. Rainfall should total around 0.15 inches by the end of the day.
Louisville Metro
The metro area will miss the rain, seeing plenty of sun and hot temperatures. Highs will reach the upper 80s with high humidity.
Lincoln Trail
Cloudy skies will dominate the morning with a few light sprinkles possible. The afternoon will be dry but humid as clouds begin to break.
Lake Cumberland
Rain will be heavy at times, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Expect rainfall totals to average around 0.80 inches, making for a wet day.
Northern Kentucky
Enjoy a typical summer day with sunny skies and very warm temperatures. Highs will push into the upper 80s under mostly clear skies.
Inner Bluegrass
Lexington will see plenty of clouds today, but significant rain is not expected. Temperatures will remain warm, reaching the mid-80s.
Bluegrass Foothills
Occasional light rain is expected, particularly during the afternoon hours. Totals will be light, with accumulations around a tenth of an inch.
Northeast Kentucky
Sunny skies will prevail for the Ashland area with temperatures in the upper 80s. A beautiful summer day with low rain chances.
Southeast Kentucky
Persistent rain and thick cloud cover will keep temperatures in the low 80s. Expect around a quarter-inch of rain as moisture gets pinned in the valleys.
Possible Outcomes
Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.
The 'Boom' Scenario
The stalled boundary drifts further north toward the Bluegrass Parkway, allowing high-efficiency moisture (PWATs > 1.8") to bring localized 2-inch rainfall totals to Central KY and the Metro regions.
The 'Bust' Scenario
A stronger northern high pushes the moisture entirely into Tennessee, leaving even the southern tier with only light, scattered sprinkles and virga.
Model Disagreements
When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.
The Plateau Pulse
The NAM suggests heavy, orographically-enhanced rainfall exceeding 1 inch in the southern mountains, while global models suggest a broader, lighter stratiform event.
Why NAM Wins
High-resolution mesoscale models like the NAM better capture terrain-induced lift in moist-adiabatic environments, especially along the Cumberland Plateau.
The Northern Edge War
The Euro attempts to 'smear' light precipitation as far north as the Ohio River, while the NAM and GFS maintain a sharp moisture cutoff south of the Parkways.
Why NAM Wins
The NAM typically resolves sharp moisture boundaries and the influence of northern subsidence better than global models which often suffer from phantom precipitation biases.
Celestial Almanac
Waning Crescent
Purchase Area
Northwest Pennyrile
Southwest Pennyrile
Barren River
Louisville Metro
Lincoln Trail
Lake Cumberland
Northern Kentucky
Inner Bluegrass
Bluegrass Foothills
Northeast Kentucky
Southeast Kentucky
Dive Deeper Into the Models
This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.