kywx
Kentucky AI Weather Engine

Kentucky AI Forecasting Beta

Sat, Jul 11
Mon, Jul 13
Forecast For

Sunday, July 12

Updated Jul 12, 7:15 AM EDT

NWS Alerts Active This Day

Flood Watch

Jul 11, 12:35 PM -> Jul 12, 12:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 11 at 12:35PM EDT until July 13 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 11, 12:39 PM -> Jul 11, 8:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 11 at 12:39PM EDT until July 12 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Watch

Jul 11, 1:13 PM -> Jul 12, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 11 at 12:13PM CDT until July 12 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Watch

Jul 11, 3:02 PM -> Jul 12, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 11 at 2:02PM CDT until July 12 at 1:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 11, 3:02 PM -> Jul 12, 5:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 11 at 2:02PM CDT until July 12 at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 11, 4:27 PM -> Jul 11, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 11 at 3:27PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Special Weather Statement

Jul 11, 5:07 PM -> Jul 11, 9:00 PM
Moderate Severity

Special Weather Statement issued July 11 at 4:07PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 11, 5:27 PM -> Jul 11, 8:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 5:27PM EDT until July 11 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 11, 6:31 PM -> Jul 12, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 11 at 6:31PM EDT until July 12 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Wilmington OH

Flood Advisory

Jul 11, 6:51 PM -> Jul 11, 8:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 6:51PM EDT until July 11 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 11, 7:13 PM -> Jul 11, 8:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 7:13PM EDT until July 11 at 8:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 11, 7:30 PM -> Jul 11, 9:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 11 at 7:30PM EDT until July 11 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 11, 7:33 PM -> Jul 11, 8:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 7:33PM EDT until July 11 at 8:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 11, 7:58 PM -> Jul 11, 11:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 11 at 6:58PM CDT until July 11 at 10:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 11, 8:19 PM -> Jul 12, 4:30 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 11 at 8:19PM EDT until July 12 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 11, 8:55 PM -> Jul 11, 9:05 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 11 at 8:55PM EDT until July 11 at 9:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 11, 9:10 PM -> Jul 12, 12:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 8:10PM CDT until July 11 at 11:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 11, 9:35 PM -> Jul 12, 12:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 9:35PM EDT until July 12 at 12:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 11, 9:42 PM -> Jul 12, 12:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 8:42PM CDT until July 11 at 11:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 11, 9:48 PM -> Jul 12, 12:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 8:48PM CDT until July 11 at 11:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 11, 10:05 PM -> Jul 11, 10:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 11 at 9:05PM CDT until July 11 at 9:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Jul 11, 10:17 PM -> Jul 11, 10:45 PM
Severe Severity

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 11 at 9:17PM CDT until July 11 at 9:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 11, 10:23 PM -> Jul 12, 12:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 9:23PM CDT until July 11 at 11:45PM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 11, 11:05 PM -> Jul 12, 2:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 11:05PM EDT until July 12 at 2:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 11, 11:30 PM -> Jul 12, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 11 at 11:30PM EDT until July 13 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 11, 11:58 PM -> Jul 12, 2:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 11:58PM EDT until July 12 at 2:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 12:36 AM -> Jul 12, 3:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 11 at 11:36PM CDT until July 12 at 2:45AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 12, 12:45 AM -> Jul 12, 8:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 12 at 12:45AM EDT until July 12 at 8:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 12, 12:45 AM -> Jul 12, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 12 at 12:45AM EDT until July 12 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 12:56 AM -> Jul 12, 4:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 12:56AM EDT until July 12 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 1:06 AM -> Jul 12, 4:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 1:06AM EDT until July 12 at 4:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 2:37 AM -> Jul 12, 5:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 2:37AM EDT until July 12 at 5:45AM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 3:05 AM -> Jul 12, 6:15 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 3:05AM EDT until July 12 at 6:15AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 3:26 AM -> Jul 12, 5:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 2:26AM CDT until July 12 at 4:45AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 12, 3:59 AM -> Jul 12, 12:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 12 at 3:59AM EDT until July 12 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 4:28 AM -> Jul 12, 7:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 4:28AM EDT until July 12 at 7:30AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 12, 5:00 AM -> Jul 12, 6:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 12 at 5:00AM EDT until July 12 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 12, 6:47 AM -> Jul 12, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 12 at 6:47AM EDT until July 13 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 7:29 AM -> Jul 12, 10:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 6:29AM CDT until July 12 at 9:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 7:54 AM -> Jul 12, 11:00 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 6:54AM CDT until July 12 at 10:00AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 8:24 AM -> Jul 12, 11:30 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 7:24AM CDT until July 12 at 10:30AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 8:45 AM -> Jul 12, 11:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 7:45AM CDT until July 12 at 10:45AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 8:53 AM -> Jul 12, 12:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 8:53AM EDT until July 12 at 12:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 9:25 AM -> Jul 12, 12:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 8:25AM CDT until July 12 at 11:30AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 9:35 AM -> Jul 12, 10:45 AM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 9:35AM EDT until July 12 at 10:45AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 9:38 AM -> Jul 12, 12:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 8:38AM CDT until July 12 at 11:45AM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 9:53 AM -> Jul 12, 1:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 8:53AM CDT until July 12 at 12:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 10:28 AM -> Jul 12, 1:30 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 9:28AM CDT until July 12 at 12:30PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 10:38 AM -> Jul 12, 1:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 10:38AM EDT until July 12 at 1:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 12, 11:06 AM -> Jul 12, 7:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 12 at 11:06AM EDT until July 12 at 11:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 11:08 AM -> Jul 12, 2:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 11:08AM EDT until July 12 at 2:15PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 11:11 AM -> Jul 12, 12:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 10:11AM CDT until July 12 at 11:30AM CDT by NWS Paducah KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 11:14 AM -> Jul 12, 2:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 10:14AM CDT until July 12 at 1:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 11:25 AM -> Jul 12, 12:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 11:25AM EDT until July 12 at 12:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 11:37 AM -> Jul 12, 2:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 10:37AM CDT until July 12 at 1:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 11:41 AM -> Jul 12, 2:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 11:41AM EDT until July 12 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 11:43 AM -> Jul 12, 1:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 10:43AM CDT until July 12 at 12:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 11:47 AM -> Jul 12, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 11:47AM EDT until July 12 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 11:50 AM -> Jul 12, 3:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 10:50AM CDT until July 12 at 2:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 11:52 AM -> Jul 12, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 11:52AM EDT until July 12 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 12:05 PM -> Jul 12, 12:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 12:05PM EDT until July 12 at 12:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 12:21 PM -> Jul 12, 3:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 12:21PM EDT until July 12 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 12:34 PM -> Jul 12, 2:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 12:34PM EDT until July 12 at 2:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 12:44 PM -> Jul 12, 3:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 12:44PM EDT until July 12 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 12:53 PM -> Jul 12, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 12:53PM EDT until July 12 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Charleston WV

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 1:30 PM -> Jul 12, 3:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 1:30PM EDT until July 12 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 1:35 PM -> Jul 12, 3:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 1:35PM EDT until July 12 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 1:35 PM -> Jul 12, 3:30 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 1:35PM EDT until July 12 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 1:53 PM -> Jul 12, 5:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 1:53PM EDT until July 12 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Warning

Jul 12, 1:57 PM -> Jul 12, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued July 12 at 12:57PM CDT until July 12 at 3:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 1:57 PM -> Jul 12, 4:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 1:57PM EDT until July 12 at 4:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Warning

Jul 12, 1:57 PM -> Jul 12, 4:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Warning issued July 12 at 12:57PM CDT until July 12 at 3:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 2:09 PM -> Jul 12, 3:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 1:09PM CDT until July 12 at 2:15PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 2:32 PM -> Jul 12, 5:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 1:32PM CDT until July 12 at 4:45PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Watch

Jul 12, 2:39 PM -> Jul 13, 2:00 AM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 12 at 2:39PM EDT until July 13 at 2:00AM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 2:56 PM -> Jul 12, 6:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 1:56PM CDT until July 12 at 5:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 3:49 PM -> Jul 12, 5:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 3:49PM EDT until July 12 at 5:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 3:52 PM -> Jul 12, 7:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 2:52PM CDT until July 12 at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 3:53 PM -> Jul 12, 5:45 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 3:53PM EDT until July 12 at 5:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Watch

Jul 12, 4:01 PM -> Jul 12, 7:00 PM
Severe Severity

Flood Watch issued July 12 at 3:01PM CDT until July 12 at 6:00PM CDT by NWS Louisville KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 4:06 PM -> Jul 12, 6:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 4:06PM EDT until July 12 at 6:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 4:13 PM -> Jul 12, 6:15 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 4:13PM EDT until July 12 at 6:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 4:22 PM -> Jul 12, 5:15 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 4:22PM EDT until July 12 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flash Flood Warning

Jul 12, 4:36 PM -> Jul 12, 7:45 PM
Severe Severity

Flash Flood Warning issued July 12 at 4:36PM EDT until July 12 at 7:45PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 4:55 PM -> Jul 12, 7:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 4:55PM EDT until July 12 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Flood Advisory

Jul 12, 5:05 PM -> Jul 12, 7:00 PM
Minor Severity

Flood Advisory issued July 12 at 5:05PM EDT until July 12 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Jackson KY

Confidence
70%

Widespread Soaking Rain Across Kentucky Today

A moisture-rich atmospheric system will track across the Commonwealth, bringing persistent rain and high humidity. While all of Kentucky will see cloud cover and rain chances, the heaviest totals are expected in South-Central and Central regions where localized training of showers may occur.

Why is this happening?
Technical explanation of the atmospheric setup
Confidence Assessment

High confidence in widespread rain occurrence (80% PoPs); lower confidence in the exact placement of high-intensity rainfall bands due to significant model spread in QPF totals (0.5" vs 3.0").

Get Personalized Forecasts

Choose which region in Kentucky you're interested in and we'll always show you that one first. You can change your selected region by clicking the "Star" icon on any regional forecast.

Purchase Area

NUISANCE
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield
Morning Showers Tapering to Drizzle
Rain
83°/ 70°

Northwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Owensboro, Henderson, Morganfield
Steady Rain Throughout the Day
Rain
81°/ 70°

Southwest Pennyrile

NUISANCE
Hopkinsville, Madisonville, Princeton
Afternoon Rain Likely
Rain
79°/ 71°

Barren River

IMPACTFUL
Bowling Green, Glasgow, Franklin
Heavy Rain Potential and Localized Flooding
Heavy_Rain
80°/ 71°

Louisville Metro

NUISANCE
Louisville, La Grange, Shepherdsville
Brief Showers and High Humidity
Rain
84°/ 71°

Lincoln Trail

NUISANCE
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Leitchfield
Significant Rain in the Morning
Rain
79°/ 70°

Lake Cumberland

IMPACTFUL
Somerset, Columbia, Monticello
Soggy Day on the Plateau
Rain
79°/ 69°

Northern Kentucky

Covington, Florence, Independence
Mostly Cloudy with Stray Showers
Rain
84°/ 68°

Inner Bluegrass

NUISANCE
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester
Afternoon Showers for Lexington
Rain
79°/ 68°

Bluegrass Foothills

NUISANCE
Richmond, Danville, Berea
Hilly Terrain to Squeeze Out More Rain
Rain
78°/ 68°

Northeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Ashland, Morehead, Grayson
Steady Rain Developing Late
Rain
80°/ 69°

Southeast Kentucky

NUISANCE
Hazard, Pikeville, Harlan
Gray and Damp in the Mountains
Rain
77°/ 67°

Possible Outcomes

Weather forecasting involves uncertainty. Below are two scenarios representing the range of possible outcomes: the "Boom" scenario shows the worst-case/highest-impact result if conditions align unfavorably, while the "Bust" scenario shows the best-case/lowest-impact result if the forecast doesn't materialize as expected.

💥

The 'Boom' Scenario

The NAM's 'Bullseye' scenario verifies: High-efficiency moisture processing leads to localized training bands, resulting in 3-4 inches of rain across the Barren River and Lincoln Trail regions, causing significant flash flooding.

💨

The 'Bust' Scenario

The drier Euro/GFS solutions win: Mid-level dry air entrainment limits the duration of saturation, keeping most rainfall totals under 0.50 inches and reducing the day to a humid, drizzly nuisance rather than a significant rain event.

Model Disagreements

When models disagree, a call must be made to determine the most likely outcome. This decision is based on a combination of factors including model performance, historical data, and the models general accounting of each climatic region of Kentucky.

The South-Central QPF Conflict

The NAM is an aggressive outlier, forecasting nearly 3 inches of rain in Bowling Green, while the GFS and Euro maintain a much more conservative 0.5 to 0.7 inch range.

NAM
VS
GFS
VS
EURO
Why BLEND Wins

While the NAM is prone to over-calculating localized convective rainfall, the high-PWAT environment and stalled boundary suggest the global models (GFS/Euro) may be underestimating the efficiency of this tropical-maritime airmass. A blend captures the high-end risk without over-committing to the NAM's extreme bullseye.

Affected Regions
BARREN RIVERLINCOLN TRAILSOUTHWEST PENNYRILE

The Plateau Injection Disagreement

The GFS suggests significant orographic enhancement (1.3"+) over the Lake Cumberland region, while the NAM remains strangely dry (0.12") in the same area.

GFS
VS
NAM
Why GFS Wins

GFS handles the synoptic moisture flux into the plateau more realistically in this flow regime. NAM's lack of QPF in a high-PoP environment appears to be a result of a dry-slot placement that is not supported by the broader synoptic setup.

Affected Regions
LAKE CUMBERLANDBLUEGRASS CORE

Technical Analysis

This section provides a deep, physics-based explanation of the weather. Our AI system analyzed multiple atmospheric layers and variables from all available models to synthesize this technical overview.

Below you'll find detailed breakdowns of the atmospheric dynamics that are driving today's forecast, including thermodynamics, kinematics, and hydrology.

Thermodynamics

Stability & Temperatures

How temperature changes with altitude. This determines whether precipitation falls as rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain based on the vertical temperature profile.

Thermal Profile Overview

The vertical temperature stack is uniformly warm and saturated, characteristic of a maritime tropical airmass with moist-adiabatic lapse rates.

Thermal Boundary

A stalled surface trough and moisture axis are positioned across South-Central Kentucky, serving as the focal point for convergence.

Diurnal Trend

Suppressed diurnal curve with high temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal due to 90-100% cloud cover and evaporative cooling.

Kinematics

Wind & Energy

Wind patterns and atmospheric energy. Frontal passages, jet stream positioning, and vorticity tell us where and when lift will generate precipitation.

Frontal Passage

No distinct frontal passage; the system is a stalled boundary within a broad trough. No significant airmass change expected.

Jet Stream Support

The sub-tropical jet is providing moderate upper-level divergence, sustaining long-duration stratiform rain.

Energy Status

Multiple compact vorticity maxima (0.0003-0.0005) are pivoting through the flow, driving the pulses of heavier rain.

Hydrology

Moisture & Precipitation

Moisture content and precipitation character. This reveals whether the atmosphere is saturated enough to produce precipitation, and what type to expect (steady vs. bursts).

Saturation Status

Deeply saturated column (RH >80% through 500mb). Low virga risk except in Northern KY where some low-level dry air lingers.

Precipitation Character

Primarily stratiform with embedded convective elements. High precipitation efficiency expected.

Flooding Context

Ground is currently capable of absorption, but the threat of 'training' cells over the Barren River drainage necessitates monitoring.

Celestial Almanac

Moon Phase

Waning Crescent

5% Illumination
Moonrise
4:25 AM
Moonset
--:--
Purchase Area
Sunrise
6:45 AM
Sunset
9:16 PM
Civil Dawn
6:15 AM
Civil Dusk
9:47 PM
Northwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:37 AM
Sunset
9:12 PM
Civil Dawn
6:06 AM
Civil Dusk
9:43 PM
Southwest Pennyrile
Sunrise
6:41 AM
Sunset
9:11 PM
Civil Dawn
6:11 AM
Civil Dusk
9:41 PM
Barren River
Sunrise
6:37 AM
Sunset
9:08 PM
Civil Dawn
6:07 AM
Civil Dusk
9:38 PM
Louisville Metro
Sunrise
6:30 AM
Sunset
9:08 PM
Civil Dawn
5:59 AM
Civil Dusk
9:39 PM
Lincoln Trail
Sunrise
6:32 AM
Sunset
9:07 PM
Civil Dawn
6:02 AM
Civil Dusk
9:38 PM
Lake Cumberland
Sunrise
6:29 AM
Sunset
9:00 PM
Civil Dawn
5:59 AM
Civil Dusk
9:31 PM
Northern Kentucky
Sunrise
6:23 AM
Sunset
9:06 PM
Civil Dawn
5:51 AM
Civil Dusk
9:37 PM
Inner Bluegrass
Sunrise
6:26 AM
Sunset
9:03 PM
Civil Dawn
5:55 AM
Civil Dusk
9:33 PM
Bluegrass Foothills
Sunrise
6:26 AM
Sunset
9:01 PM
Civil Dawn
5:55 AM
Civil Dusk
9:32 PM
Northeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:17 AM
Sunset
8:56 PM
Civil Dawn
5:46 AM
Civil Dusk
9:27 PM
Southeast Kentucky
Sunrise
6:23 AM
Sunset
8:55 PM
Civil Dawn
5:52 AM
Civil Dusk
9:25 PM

Dive Deeper Into the Models

This forecast is a synthesis of raw data from the NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEM models. These models provide detailed atmospheric analyses including 500mb vorticity, precipitation rates, and more. You can take a look at the raw model data by clicking the links below.